SummaryBackgroundUnderweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.MethodsWe pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).FindingsRegional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys wor...

SummaryBackgroundRaised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.MethodsFor this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.FindingsWe pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence.InterpretationDuring the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.FundingWellcome Trust.

Objective To evaluate differences in first manifestations of cardiovascular disease between men and women in a competing risks framework.Design Prospective population based cohort study.Setting People living in the community in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.Participants 8419 participants (60.9% women) aged ≥55 and free from cardiovascular disease at baseline. Main outcome measuresFirst diagnosis of coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, revascularisation, and coronary death), cerebrovascular disease (stroke, transient ischaemic attack, and carotid revascularisation), heart failure, or other cardiovascular death; or death from non-cardiovascular causes. Data were used to calculate lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease and its first incident manifestations adjusted for competing non-cardiovascular death.Results During follow-up of up to 20.1 years, 2888 participants developed cardiovascular disease (826 coronary heart disease, 1198 cerebrovascular disease, 762 heart failure, and 102 other cardiovascular death). At age 55, overall lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease were 67.1% (95% confidence interval 64.7% to 69.5%) for men and 66.4% (64.2% to 68.7%) for women. Lifetime risks of first incident manifestations of cardiovascular disease in men were 27.2% (24.1% to 30.3%) for coronary heart disease, 22.8% (20.4% to 25.1%) for cerebrovascular disease, 14.9% (13.3% to 16.6%) for heart failure, and 2.3% (1.6% to 2.9%) for other deaths from cardiovascular disease. For women the figures were 16.9% (13.5% to 20.4%), 29.8% (27.7% to 31.9%), 17.5% (15.9% to 19.2%), and 2.1% (1.6% to 2.7%), respectively. Differences in the number of events that developed over the lifespan in women compared with men (per 1000) were −7 for any cardiovascular disease, −102 for coronary heart disease, 70 for cerebrovascular disease, 26 for heart failure, and −1 for other cardiovascular death; all outcomes Research RESEARCH manifested at a higher age in women. Patterns were similar when analyses were restricted to hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease outcomes, but absolute risk differences between men and women were attenuated for both coronary heart disease and stroke.Conclusions At age 55, though men and women have similar lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease, there are considerable differences in the first manifestation. Men are more likely to develop coronary heart disease as a first event, while women are more likely to have cerebrovascular disease or heart failure as their first event, although these manifestations appear most often at older ages.

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3–19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8–144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13410.001

BackgroundCardiovascular factors and low education are important risk factors of dementia. We provide contemporary estimates of the proportion of dementia cases that could be prevented if modifiable risk factors were eliminated, i.e., population attributable risk (PAR). Furthermore, we studied whether the PAR has changed across the last two decades.MethodsWe included 7,003 participants of the original cohort (starting in 1990) and 2,953 participants of the extended cohort (starting in 2000) of the Rotterdam Study. Both cohorts were followed for dementia until ten years after baseline. We calculated the PAR of overweight, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, cholesterol, smoking, and education. Additionally, we assessed the PAR of stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation. We calculated the PAR for each risk factor separately and the combined PAR taking into account the interaction of risk factors.ResultsDuring 57,996 person-years, 624 participants of the original cohort developed dementia, and during 26,177 person-years, 145 participants of the extended cohort developed dementia. The combined PAR in the original cohort was 0.23 (95 % CI, 0.05–0.62). The PAR in the extended cohort was slightly higher at 0.30 (95 % CI, 0.06–0.76). The combined PAR including cardiovascular diseases was 0.25 (95 % CI, 0.07–0.62) in the original cohort and 0.33 (95 % CI, 0.07–0.77) in the extended cohort.ConclusionsA substantial part of dementia cases could be prevented if modifiable risk factors would be eliminated. Although prevention and treatment options of cardiovascular risk factors and diseases have improved, the preventive potential for dementia has not declined over the last two decades.

509S troke is the second leading cause of death worldwide and the third most common cause of disability-adjusted lifeyears.1,2 Although stroke has an acute onset, there is abundant evidence for a long subclinical period in which cerebrovascular pathology accumulates and can be visualized on noninvasive brain imaging. Markers of subclinical cerebrovascular pathology that are known to increase the risk of ischemic stroke are white matter lesions and lacunes. 3 In the past decade, punctuate hemorrhagic lesions in the brain parenchyma, so-called cerebral microbleeds, have emerged as another manifestation of subclinical cerebrovascular pathology. 4 In contrast to white matter lesions and lacunes, microbleeds are thought to reflect the presence of both ischemic and hemorrhagic brain vasculopathy. 5,6 In addition, evidence suggests that the location of cerebral microbleeds provides more information on the type of underlying vasculopathy, ie, cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) in the presence of lobar microbleeds and hypertensive arteriopathy when deep or mixed microbleeds are seen. 4,7,8 Editorial see p 479 Clinical Perspective on p 516There is a growing need to clarify whether microbleed presence indicates an increased risk of stroke, because this may provide new insights in the link between subclinical cerebrovascular pathology and stroke. So far, it is known that in patients with a history of stroke microbleed presence increases the risk of recurrent stroke, either hemorrhagic or ischemic. [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18] Whether microbleeds are associated with an increased risk of stroke in community-dwelling elderly without a history of stroke remains unclear. Only 2 prospective studies investigated the association of microbleeds with subsequent stroke in people without a history of cerebrovascular events. 19,20 Both studies found thatBackground-Cerebral microbleeds are highly prevalent in people with clinically manifest cerebrovascular disease and have been shown to increase the risk of stroke recurrence. Microbleeds are also frequently found in healthy elderly, a population in which the clinical implication of microbleeds is unknown. Methods and Results-In the population-based Rotterdam Study, the presence, number, and location of microbleeds were assessed at baseline on brain MRI of 4759 participants aged ≥45 years. Participants were followed for incident stroke throughout the study period (2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013). We used Cox proportional hazards to investigate if people with microbleeds were at increased risk of stroke in comparison with those without microbleeds, adjusting for demographic, genetic, and cardiovascular risk, and cerebrovascular imaging markers. Microbleed prevalence was 18.7% (median count 1 In the population-based Rotterdam Study, we investigated whether cerebral microbleeds at various locations are associated with an increased risk of recurrent and first-ever ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage. Methods Study PopulationThe Rotterdam Study ...

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ADAMTS13 (a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with a thrombospondin motif repeats 13) has antithrombotic properties because it cleaves von Willebrand factor (VWF) in smaller, less active multimers. The aim of our study was to investigate prospectively the association between ADAMTS13 activity and ischemic stroke. We included 5941 individuals ≥55 years without a history of stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) of the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study. ADAMTS13 activity was measured at inclusion with the FRETS-VWF73 assay and VWF antigen (VWF:Ag) levels by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. We assessed the association among ADAMTS13 activity, VWF:Ag levels, and ischemic stroke by Cox proportional hazard analysis. The added value of ADAMTS13 activity above the traditional risk factors for ischemic stroke risk prediction was examined by the C-statistic and the net reclassification improvement index (NRI). All individuals were followed for incident stroke or TIA. Over a median follow-up time of 10.7 years (56,403 total person-years), 461 participants had a stroke, 306 of which were ischemic. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, individuals with ADAMTS13 activity in the lowest quartile had a higher risk of ischemic stroke (absolute risk, 7.3%) than did those in the reference highest quartile (absolute risk, 3.8%; hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-2.32). Adding ADAMTS13 to the model in prediction of ischemic stroke, increased the C-statistic by 0.013 (P = .003) and provided 0.058 (95% CI, -0.002 to 0.119) NRI. Low ADAMTS13 activity is associated with the risk of ischemic stroke and improves the accuracy of risk predictions for ischemic stroke beyond traditional risk factors.