The eastern Baltic (EB) cod (Gadus morhua) stock was depleted and overexploited for decades until the mid-2000s, when fishing mortality rapidly declined and biomass started to increase, as shown by stock assessments. These positive developments were partly assigned to effective management measures, and the EB cod was considered one of the most successful stock recoveries in recent times. In contrast to this optimistic view, the analytical stock assessment failed in 2014, leaving the present stock status unclear. Deteriorated quality of some basic input data for stock assessment in combination with changes in environmental and ecological conditions has led to an unusual situation for cod in the Baltic Sea, which poses new challenges for stock assessment and management advice. A number of adverse developments such as low nutritional condition and disappearance of larger individuals indicate that the stock is in distress. In this study, we (i) summarize the knowledge of recent changes in cod biology and ecosystem conditions, (ii) describe the subsequent challenges for stock assessment, and (iii) highlight the key questions where answers are urgently needed to understand the present stock status and provide scientifically solid support for cod management in the Baltic Sea.

The eastern Baltic cod stock has recently started to recover, after two decades of severe depletion, however with unexpected side effects. The stock has not re‐occupied its former wide distribution range, but remains concentrated in a limited area in the southern Baltic Sea. The biomass of forage fish, i.e., sprat and herring, is historic low in this area, which in combination with increasing cod stock results in locally high predation mortality of forage fish and cannibalism of cod. In line with low prey availability, body weight and nutritional condition of cod drastically declined. In the southern Baltic Sea, cod competes with pelagic fisheries for the limited resources of sprat and herring, while the largest biomass of these species is currently found outside the distribution range of cod. Accounting for spatial overlap between species is crucial in developing ecosystem based fisheries management to enhance the recovery of predator stocks.

Genetic data have great potential for improving fisheries management by identifying the fundamental management units—that is, the biological populations—and their mixing. However, so far, the number of practical cases of marine fisheries management using genetics has been limited. Here, we used Atlantic cod in the Baltic Sea to demonstrate the applicability of genetics to a complex management scenario involving mixing of two genetically divergent populations. Specifically, we addressed several assumptions used in the current assessment of the two populations. Through analysis of 483 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) distributed across the Atlantic cod genome, we confirmed that a model of mechanical mixing, rather than hybridization and introgression, best explained the pattern of genetic differentiation. Thus, the fishery is best monitored as a mixed‐stock fishery. Next, we developed a targeted panel of 39 SNPs with high statistical power for identifying population of origin and analyzed more than 2,000 tissue samples collected between 2011 and 2015 as well as 260 otoliths collected in 2003/2004. These data provided high spatial resolution and allowed us to investigate geographical trends in mixing, to compare patterns for different life stages and to investigate temporal trends in mixing. We found similar geographical trends for the two time points represented by tissue and otolith samples and that a recently implemented geographical management separation of the two populations provided a relatively close match to their distributions. In contrast to the current assumption, we found that patterns of mixing differed between juveniles and adults, a signal likely linked to the different reproductive dynamics of the two populations. Collectively, our data confirm that genetics is an operational tool for complex fisheries management applications. We recommend focussing on developing population assessment models and fisheries management frameworks to capitalize fully on the additional information offered by genetically assisted fisheries monitoring.

H-J. 2004. Stock structure of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in West Greenland waters: implications of transport and migration. e ICES Journal of Marine Science, 61: 972e982.Atlantic cod in West Greenland waters have varied greatly in abundance and distribution in the past decades. Strong year classes yielded good catches inshore and offshore in the late 1980s, but since then cod have been nearly absent offshore and the inshore fishery has been depressed, though there has been a small increase inshore over the past few years. Different components contribute to the Greenland cod stock, and re-analysed tagging experiments indicate that migration behaviour differs between them. Inshore cod are sedentary, with almost no migration between different fjord systems. In contrast, there are many cases of alongshore migration of cod tagged on the offshore fishing banks. Further, observations have been made of occasional migrations from offshore to inshore, notably so in years of good recruitment originating from Icelandic waters.

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