Both disparate trends in HIV prevalence and varying levels of non-HIV-associated child mortality will ensure very different impacts in different countries. To improve the projections of the overall effect that the HIV epidemic will have on child mortality at the population level in countries with generalized epidemics, reliable age-specific mortality rates in infected and uninfected children are needed.

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The effect of ART exposure in fetal and early life on TLC and CD8 cell counts was prolonged until at least 8 years. These results add to the growing list of adverse effects associated with ART used as prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV.

Background: In 2017, about 20% of the world's children under 1 year of age with incomplete DPT vaccination lived in Nigeria. Fully-immunised child coverage (FIC), which is the percentage of children aged 12-23 months who received all doses of routine infant vaccines in their first year of life in Nigeria is low. We explored the associations between child, household, community and health system level factors and FIC, in particular focussing on urban formal and slum, and rural residence, using representative Nigeria Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) data from 2003, 2008 and 2013. Method: Multilevel logistic regression models were applied for quantitative analyses of NDHS 2003, 2008 and 2013 data, singly, pooled overall and stratified by rural/urban, and within urban by formal and slum. We also quantify Population Attributable Risk (PAR) of FIC. Results: FIC for rural, urban formal and slum rose from 7.4, 25.6 and 24.9% respectively in 2003 to 15.8, 45.5 and 38.5% in 2013, and varied across sociodemographics. In pooled NDHS analysis, overall and stratified, final FIC adjusted odds (aOR) were: 1. Total population-delivery place (health facility vs home, aOR = 1.13, 95% CI = 0.73-1.73), maternal education (higher vs no education, aOR = 3.92, 95% CI = 1.79-8.59) and place of residence (urban vs rural, aOR = 1.69, 95% CI = 0.89-3.22). 2. Rural, urban formal and slum stratified: A.Ruraldelivery place (aOR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.12-1.94), maternal education (aOR = 4.99, 95% CI = 2.48-10.06). B.Urban formal-delivery place (aOR = 2.62, 95% CI = 1.43-4.79), maternal education level (aOR = 9.18, 95% CI = 3.05-27.64). C.Slums-delivery place (aOR = 5.39, 95% CI = 2.18-13.33), maternal education (aOR = 5.03, 95% CI = 1.52-16.65). The PAR revealed the highest percentage point increase in FIC would be achieved in all places of residence by maternal higher education: rural-38.15, urban formal-22.88 and slum 23.76, while non-attendance of antenatal care was estimated to lead to the largest reduction in FIC. Conclusion: Although low FIC in rural areas may be largely due to lack of health facilities and immunisation education, the intra-urban disparity is mostly unexplained, and requires further qualitative and interventional research. We show the FIC point increase that can be achieved if specific sociodemographic variable (risk) are addressed in the various communities, thus informing prioritisation of interventions.

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected pregnant women increasingly receive antiretroviral therapy (ART) to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). Studies suggest HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) children face higher mortality than HIV-unexposed children, but most evidence relates to the pre-ART era, breastfeeding of limited duration, and considerable maternal mortality. Maternal ART and prolonged breastfeeding while on ART may improve survival, although this has not been reliably quantified.MethodsIndividual data on 19 219 HEU children from 21 PMTCT trials/cohorts undertaken from 1995 to 2015 in Africa and Asia were pooled to estimate the association between 24-month mortality and maternal/infant factors, using random-effects Cox proportional hazards models. Adjusted attributable fractions of risks computed using the predict function in the R package “frailtypack” were used to estimate the relative contribution of risk factors to overall mortality.ResultsCumulative incidence of death was 5.5% (95% confidence interval, 5.1–5.9) by age 24 months. Low birth weight (LBW <2500 g, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR, 2.9), no breastfeeding (aHR, 2.5), and maternal death (aHR, 11.1) were significantly associated with increased mortality. Maternal ART (aHR, 0.5) was significantly associated with lower mortality. At the population level, LBW accounted for 16.2% of 24-month mortality, never breastfeeding for 10.8%, mother not receiving ART for 45.6%, and maternal death for 4.3%; combined, these factors explained 63.6% of deaths by age 24 months.ConclusionsSurvival of HEU children could be substantially improved if public health practices provided all HIV-infected mothers with ART and supported optimal infant feeding and care for LBW neonates.

Background Each year, billions of US$ are spent globally on infectious disease research and development. However, there is little systematic tracking of global research and development. We present research on investments into infectious diseases research from funders in the G20 countries across an 18-year time period spanning 2000–17, comparing amounts invested for different conditions and considering the global burden of disease to identify potential areas of relative underfunding. Methods The study examined research awards made between 2000 and 2017 for infectious disease research from G20-based public and philanthropic funders. We searched research databases using a range of keywords, and open access data were extracted from funder websites. Awards were categorised by type of science, specialty, and disease or pathogen. Data collected included study title, abstract, award amount, funder, and year. We used descriptive statistics and Spearman's correlation coefficient to investigate the association between research investment and disease burden, using Global Burden of Disease 2017 study data. Findings The final 2000–17 dataset included 94 074 awards for infectious disease research, with a sum investment of $104·9 billion (annual range 4·1 billion to 8·4 billion) and a median award size of $257 176 (IQR 62 562–770 661). Pre-clinical research received $61·1 billion (58·2%) across 70 337 (74·8%) awards and public health research received $29·5 billion (28·1%) from 19 197 (20·4%) awards. HIV/AIDS received $42·1 billion (40·1%), tuberculosis received $7·0 billion (6·7%), malaria received $5·6 billion (5·3%), and pneumonia received $3·5 billion (3·3%). Funding for Ebola virus ($1·2 billion), Zika virus ($0·3 billion), influenza ($4·4 billion), and coronavirus ($0·5 billion) was typically highest soon after a high-profile outbreak. There was a general increase in year-on-year investment in infectious disease research between 2000 and 2006, with a decline between 2007 and 2017. Funders based in the USA provided $81·6 billion (77·8%). Based on funding per 2017 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), HIV/AIDS received the greatest relative investment ($772 per DALY), compared with tuberculosis ($156 per DALY), malaria ($125 per DALY), and pneumonia ($33 per DALY). Syphilis and scabies received the least relative investment (both $9 per DALY). We observed weak positive correlation (r=0·30) between investment and 2017 disease burden. Interpretation HIV research received the highest amount of investment relative to DALY burden. Scabies and syphilis received the lowest relative funding. Investments for high-threat pathogens (eg, Ebola virus and coronavirus) were often reactive and followed outbreaks. We found little evidence that funding is proactively guided by global burden or pandemic risk. Our findings show how research investments are allocated and how this relates to disease burden and diseases with pandemic potentia...

In many international settings, transmission of the HIV virus during lactation accounts for one third to one half of all HIV transmission from mothers to infants. Reduction of HIV transmission during lactation is one of the most pressing public health dilemmas confronting perinatal researchers, health policy makers, and HIV-infected women in many areas of the world. While results of clinical trials, laboratory and observational studies have increased our understanding of risk factors for breast-feeding transmission and the timing of postnatal transmission, there are no proven strategies known to reduce the risk of HIV transmission during breast-feeding for those HIV-infected women who opt to breast-feed in developing countries. Approaches to decreasing transmission of HIV through breast-feeding that will be studied include trials of combination antiretrovirals given to mothers during lactation. These research efforts using maternal antiretrovirals for perinatal HIV prevention during breast-feeding will interface with emerging plans for treatment programs in developing countries.