BackgroundThe smoking epidemic in Australia is characterised by historic levels of prolonged smoking, heavy smoking, very high levels of long-term cessation, and low current smoking prevalence, with 13% of adults reporting that they smoked daily in 2013. Large-scale quantitative evidence on the relationship of tobacco smoking to mortality in Australia is not available despite the potential to provide independent international evidence about the contemporary risks of smoking.MethodsThis is a prospective study of 204,953 individuals aged ≥45 years sampled from the general population of New South Wales, Australia, who joined the 45 and Up Study from 2006–2009, with linked questionnaire, hospitalisation, and mortality data to mid-2012 and with no history of cancer (other than melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer), heart disease, stroke, or thrombosis. Hazard ratios (described here as relative risks, RRs) for all-cause mortality among current and past smokers compared to never-smokers were estimated, adjusting for age, education, income, region of residence, alcohol, and body mass index.ResultsOverall, 5,593 deaths accrued during follow-up (874,120 person-years; mean: 4.26 years); 7.7% of participants were current smokers and 34.1% past smokers at baseline. Compared to never-smokers, the adjusted RR (95% CI) of mortality was 2.96 (2.69–3.25) in current smokers and was similar in men (2.82 (2.49–3.19)) and women (3.08 (2.63–3.60)) and according to birth cohort. Mortality RRs increased with increasing smoking intensity, with around two- and four-fold increases in mortality in current smokers of ≤14 (mean 10/day) and ≥25 cigarettes/day, respectively, compared to never-smokers. Among past smokers, mortality diminished gradually with increasing time since cessation and did not differ significantly from never-smokers in those quitting prior to age 45. Current smokers are estimated to die an average of 10 years earlier than non-smokers.ConclusionsIn Australia, up to two-thirds of deaths in current smokers can be attributed to smoking. Cessation reduces mortality compared with continuing to smoke, with cessation earlier in life resulting in greater reductions.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-015-0281-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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BackgroundCancer care represents a substantial and rapidly rising healthcare cost in Australia. Our aim was to provide accurate population-based estimates of the health services cost of cancer care using large-scale linked patient-level data.MethodsWe analysed data for incident cancers diagnosed 2006–2010 and followed to 2014 among 266,793 eligible participants in the 45 and Up Study. Health system costs included Medicare and pharmaceutical claims, inpatient hospital episodes and emergency department presentations. Costs for cancer cases and matched cancer-free controls were compared, to estimate monthly/annual excess costs of cancer care by cancer type, before and after diagnosis and by phase of care (initial, continuing, terminal). Total costs incurred in 2013 were also estimated for all people diagnosed in Australia 2009–2013.Results7624 participants diagnosed with cancer were matched with up to three controls. The mean excess cost of care per case was AUD$1,622 for the year before diagnosis, $33,944 for the first year post-diagnosis and $8,796 for the second year post-diagnosis, with considerable variation by cancer type. Mean annual cost after the initial treatment phase was $4,474/case and the mean cost for the last year of life was $49,733/case. In 2013 the cost for cancers among people in Australia diagnosed during 2009–2013 was ~$6.3billion (0.4% of Gross Domestic Product; $272 per capita), with the largest costs for colorectal cancer ($1.1billion), breast cancer ($0.8billion), lung cancer ($0.6billion) and prostate cancer ($0.5billion).ConclusionsThe cost of cancer care is substantial and varies by cancer type and time since diagnosis. These findings emphasise the economic importance of effective primary and secondary cancer prevention strategies.

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Lung cancer screening with computerised tomography holds promise, but optimising the balance of benefits and harms via selection of a high risk population is critical. PLCO is a logistic regression model based on U.S. data, incorporating sociodemographic and health factors, which predicts 6-year lung cancer risk among ever-smokers, and thus may better predict those who might benefit from screening than criteria based solely on age and smoking history. We aimed to validate the performance of PLCO in predicting lung cancer outcomes in a cohort of Australian smokers. Predicted risk of lung cancer was calculated using PLCO applied to baseline data from 95,882 ever-smokers aged ≥45 years in the 45 and Up Study (2006-2009). Predictions were compared to lung cancer outcomes captured to June 2014 via linkage to population-wide health databases; a total of 1,035 subsequent lung cancer diagnoses were identified. PLCO had good discrimination (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic-curve; AUC 0.80, 95%CI 0.78-0.81) and excellent calibration (mean and 90th percentiles of absolute risk difference between observed and predicted outcomes: 0.006 and 0.016, respectively). Sensitivity (69.4%, 95%CI, 65.6-73.0%) of the PLCO criteria in the 55-74 year age group for predicting lung cancers was greater than that using criteria based on ≥30 pack-years smoking and ≤15 years quit (57.3%, 53.3-61.3%; p < 0.0001), but specificity was lower (72.0%, 71.7-72.4% versus 75.2%, 74.8-75.6%, respectively; p < 0.0001). Targeting high risk people for lung cancer screening using PLCO might improve the balance of benefits versus harms, and cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening.

Objectives: To quantify relationships between erectile dysfunction (ED), ageing and health and lifestyle factors for men aged 45 years and older. Design: Cross‐sectional, population‐based study seeking data on health, sociodemographic and lifestyle factors by questionnaire (the 45 and Up Study). Participants and setting: 108 477 men aged 45 years or older, living in New South Wales, and recruited into the 45 and Up Study between 10 January 2006 and 17 February 2010. Main outcome measures: Self‐reported ED. Results: In the 101 674 men reporting no prior diagnosis of prostate cancer, 39.31% (95% CI, 39.01%–39.61%) had no ED, 25.14% (95% CI, 24.87%–25.40%) had mild ED (ie, experienced ED sometimes), 18.79% (95% CI, 18.55%–19.03%) had moderate (ie, usually experienced) ED and 16.77% (95% CI, 16.55%–17.00%) had complete ED. After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, the odds of moderate/complete ED increased by 11.30% (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.11–1.12) each year from the age of 45 years. Overall, the risk of moderate/complete ED was higher among men with low socioeconomic status, high body mass index, those who were sedentary, current smokers and those with diseases including diabetes, heart disease, and depression/anxiety, compared with men without these risk factors. Moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a significantly reduced risk of ED in men aged 45–54 years, but not in older men. Almost all men aged 75 or older reported moderate/severe ED; however, increased physical activity was associated with a lower odds of ED in this group. Conclusions: In a large population‐based cross‐sectional study, ED increased considerably with age. There are a range of potentially modifiable risk factors for ED, including smoking, low physical activity, and high body mass index.

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