The strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is difficult to estimate using observations. Trends in the age of stratospheric air, deduced from observations of transient tracers, have been used to identify trends in the circulation, but there are ambiguities in the relationship between age and the strength of the circulation. This paper presents a steady-state theory and a time-dependent extension to relate age of air directly to the diabatic circulation of the stratosphere. In steady state, it is the difference between the age of upwelling and downwelling air through an isentrope and not the absolute value of age that is a measure of the strength of the diabatic circulation through that isentrope. For the time-varying case, expressions for other terms that contribute to the age budget are derived. An idealized atmospheric general circulation model with and without a seasonal cycle is used to test the time-dependent theory and to find that these additional terms are small upon annual averaging. The steady-state theory holds as well for annual averages of a seasonally varying model as for a perpetual-solstice model. These results are a step toward using data to quantify the strength of the diabatic circulation.

The distribution of gases such as ozone and water vapour in the stratosphere — which affect surface climate — is influenced by the meridional overturning of mass in the stratosphere, the Brewer–Dobson circulation. However, observation-based estimates of its global strength are difficult to obtain. Here we present two calculations of the mean strength of the meridional overturning of the stratosphere. We analyze satellite data that document the global diabatic circulation between 2007– 2011, and compare these to three re-analysis data sets and to simulations with a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model. Using measurements of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrous oxide, we calculate the global mean diabatic overturning mass flux throughout the stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere, these two estimates agree, and at a potential temperature level of 460 K (about 20 km or 60 hPa in tropics), the global circulation strength is 6.3–7.6 × 109 kg/s. Higher in the atmosphere, only the SF6-based estimate is available, and it diverges from the re-analysis data and simulations. Interpretation of the SF6 data-based estimate is limited because of a mesospheric sink of SF6; however, the reanalyses also differ substantially from each other. We conclude that the uncertainty in the mean meridional overturning circulation strength at upper levels of the stratosphere amounts to at least 100 %.

Observed surface temperature distributions are non‐Gaussian, which has important implications for the likelihood of extreme events in a changing climate. We use a two‐dimensional advection‐diffusion model of temperature stirred by stochastically generated Rossby waves with a sustained background temperature gradient to explore non‐Gaussian temperature distributions. We examine how these distributions change with changes to thermal relaxation and eddy stirring. Weakening the background temperature gradient leads to decreased variance but no changes in other moments, while the eddy properties affect both the variance and skewness. A poleward movement of eddy stirring latitude leads to reduced skewness for most latitudes, implying a shift toward longer negative tails in temperature distributions, all else being equal. In contrast, the dependence of temperature skewness on eddy speed is a nuanced, nonlinear relationship.

A new metric for adiabatic mixing in the stratosphere is developed from the age of air tracer • We examine hemispheric asymmetry and discuss the slow time evolution of the flow • We calculate this metric to perform a preliminary comparison between models and satellite data

Abstract. Accurate simulation of atmospheric circulation, particularly in the lower stratosphere, is challenging due to unresolved wave–mean flow interactions and limited high-resolution observations for validation. Gravity-induced pressure gradients lead to a small but measurable separation of heavy and light gases by molecular diffusion in the stratosphere. Because the relative abundance of Ar to N2 is exclusively controlled by physical transport, the argon-to-nitrogen ratio (Ar∕N2) provides an additional constraint on circulation and the age of air (AoA), i.e., the time elapsed since entry of an air parcel into the stratosphere. Here we use airborne measurements of N2O and Ar∕N2 from nine campaigns with global coverage spanning 2008–2018 to calculate AoA and to quantify gravitational separation in the lowermost stratosphere. To this end, we develop a new N2O–AoA relationship using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We observe that gravitational separation increases systematically with increasing AoA for samples with AoA between 0 and 3 years. These observations are compared to a simulation of the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT 3-D chemical transport model, which has been updated to include gravitational fractionation of gases. We demonstrate that although AoA at old ages is slightly underestimated in the model, the relationship between Ar∕N2 and AoA is robust and agrees with the observations. This highlights the potential of Ar∕N2 to become a new AoA tracer that is subject only to physical transport phenomena and can supplement the suite of available AoA indicators.

Citation:Linz, M., E. Tziperman, and D. G. MacMartin (2014) The input and output of these processes are identified and analyzed, some of which are motivated by the recharge oscillator theory. Several errors and compensating errors are identified. The east-west slope of the equatorial thermocline is found to respond to the central equatorial Pacific zonal wind stress as a damped driven harmonic oscillator in all models. This result is shown to be inconsistent with two different formulations of the recharge oscillator. East Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) responds consistently to changes in the thermocline depth in the eastern Pacific in the five CMIP models examined here. However, at time scales greater than 2 years, this consistent model response disagrees with observations, showing that the SST leads thermocline depth at long time scales. Compensating errors are present in the response of meridional transport of water away from the equator to SST: two different models show different response of the transport to off-equatorial wind curl and wind curl response to East Pacific SST. However, these two models show the same response of meridional transport to East Pacific SST. Identification of errors in specific physical processes can hopefully lead to model improvement by focusing model development efforts on these processes.

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Accurate simulation of atmospheric circulation, particularly in the lower stratosphere, is challenging due to unresolved wave-mean flow interactions and limited high-resolution observations for validation. Gravity-induced pressure gradients lead to a small but measurable separation of heavy and light gases by molecular diffusion in the stratosphere. Because the relative abundance of Ar to N<sub>2</sub> is exclusively controlled by physical transport, the argon-to-nitrogen ratio (Ar/N<sub>2</sub>) provides an additional constraint on circulation and the age of air (AoA), i.e. the time elapsed since entry of an air parcel into the stratosphere. Here we use airborne measurements of N<sub>2</sub>O and Ar/N<sub>2</sub> from nine campaigns with global coverage spanning 2008–2018 to calculate AoA and to quantify gravitational separation in the lowermost stratosphere. To this end, we develop a new N<sub>2</sub>O-AoA relationship using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We observe that gravitational separation increases systematically with increasing AoA for samples with AoA between 0 to 3 years. These observations are compared to a simulation of the TOMCAT/SLIMCAT 3-D chemical transport model, which has been updated to include gravitational fractionation of gases. We demonstrate that although AoA at old ages is slightly underestimated in the model, the relationship between Ar/N<sub>2</sub> and AoA is robust and agrees with the observations. This highlights the potential of Ar/N<sub>2</sub> to become a new AoA tracer that is subject only to physical transport phenomena and can supplement the suite of available AoA indicators.</p>

As the novel coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to proliferate across the globe, it is a struggle to predict and prevent its spread. The successes of mobility interventions demonstrate how policies can help limit the person-to-person interactions that are essential to infection. With significant community spread, experts predict this virus will continue to be a threat until safe and effective vaccines have been developed and widely deployed. We aim to understand mobility changes during the first major quarantine period in the United States, measured via mobile device tracking, by assessing how people changed their behavior in response to policies and to weather. Here, we show that consistent national messaging was associated with consistent national behavioral change, regardless of local policy. Furthermore, although human behavior did vary with outdoor air temperature, these variations were not associated with variations in a proxy for the rate of encounters between people. The independence of encounters and temperatures suggests that weather-related behavioral changes will, in many cases, be of limited relevance for SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics. Both of these results are encouraging for the potential of clear national messaging to help contain any future pandemics, and possibly to help contain COVID-19.