Human mobility networks are crucial for a better understanding and controlling the spread of epidemics. Here, we study the impact of human mobility networks on the COVID-19 onset in 203 different countries. We use exponential random graph models to perform an analysis of the country-to-country global spread of COVID-19. We find that most countries had similar levels of virus spreading, with only a few acting as the main global transmitters. Our evidence suggests that migration and tourism inflows increase the probability of COVID-19 case importations while controlling for contiguity, continent co-location and sharing a language. Moreover, we find that air flights were the dominant mode of transportation while male and returning travellers were the main carriers. In conclusion, a mix of mobility and geography factors predicts the COVID-19 global transmission from one country to another. These findings have implications for non-pharmaceutical public health interventions and the management of transborder human circulation.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.