The COVID-19 pandemic has precipitated a global crisis, with more than 1,430,000 confirmed cases and more than 85,000 confirmed deaths globally as of 9 April 2020 1-4 . Mitigation and suppression of new infections have emerged as the two predominant public health control strategies 5 . Both strategies focus on reducing new infections by limiting human-to-human interactions, which could be both socially and economically unsustainable in the long term. We have developed and analyzed an epidemiological intervention model that leverages serological tests 6,7 to identify and deploy recovered individuals 8 as focal points for sustaining safer interactions via interaction substitution, developing what we term 'shield immunity' at the population scale. The objective of a shield immunity strategy is to help to sustain the interactions necessary for the functioning of essential goods and services 9 while reducing the probability of transmission. Our shield immunity approach could substantively reduce the length and reduce the overall burden of the current outbreak, and can work synergistically with social distancing. The present model highlights the value of serological testing as part of intervention strategies, in addition to its well-recognized roles in estimating prevalence 10,11 and in the potential development of plasma-based therapies 12-15 .In the absence of reliable pharmaceutical interventions against SARS-CoV-2, multiple public health strategies are being deployed to slow the coronavirus pandemic 1,5,16 . These strategies can be broadly grouped into two approaches: mitigation and suppression. Mitigation includes a combination of social distancing (including school and university closures), case testing and symptomatic case isolation to reduce epidemic spread and burden on hospitals. Mitigation is intended to lessen an outbreak. However, the number of cases might still overwhelm health services 5 . Some jurisdictions have either preemptively or reactively adopted a combination of travel restrictions (shown to be effective in curtailing dispersion if implemented early enough 17,18 ) and suppression, which involves imposing complete shutdowns of the bulk of non-essential services for extended periods. Suppression strategies have led to marked decreases in new case rates in the short term by combining case isolation, quarantine, use of separate facilities for treating COVID-19 patients and large-scale

The COVID-19 pandemic has precipitated a global crisis, with more than 690,000 confirmed cases and more than 33,000 confirmed deaths globally as of March 30, 2020 [1-4]. At present two central public health control strategies have emerged: mitigation and suppression (e.g, [5]). Both strategies focus on reducing new infections by reducing interactions (and both raise questions of sustainability and long-term tactics). Complementary to those approaches, here we develop and analyze an epidemiological intervention model that leverages serological tests [6,7] to identify and deploy recovered individuals as focal points for sustaining safer interactions via interaction substitution, i.e., to develop what we term 'shield immunity' at the population scale. Recovered individuals, in the present context, represent those who have developed protective, antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and are no longer shedding virus [8]. The objective of a shield immunity strategy is to help sustain the interactions necessary for the functioning of essential goods and services (including but not limited to tending to the elderly [9], hospital care, schools, and food supply) while decreasing the probability of transmission during such essential interactions. We show that a shield immunity approach may significantly reduce the length and reduce the overall burden of an outbreak, and can work synergistically with social distancing. The present model highlights the value of serological testing as part of intervention strategies, in addition to its well recognized roles in estimating prevalence [10,11] and in the potential development of plasma-based therapies [12][13][14][15].In the absence of reliable pharmaceutical interventions against SARS-CoV-2, multiple public health strategies are being deployed to slow the coronavirus pandemic [1,5,16]. These strategies can be broadly grouped into two approaches: mitigation; and suppression. Mitigation includes a combination of social distancing (including school and university closures), case testing, and symptomatic case isolation to reduce epidemic spread and burden on hospitals. Mitigation is intended to lessen an outbreak, however the level of disease may still overwhelm health services [5]. Instead, some jurisdictions have either pre-emptively or reactively adopted a combination of travel restrictions (shown to be effective in curtailing dispersion if implemented early enough [17,18]) and suppression: imposing complete shut-downs of the bulk of non-essential services for extended periods (e.g., sheltering in place). Suppression has led to marked decreases in prevalence in the short term by combining case isolation, quarantine, use of separate facilities for treating COVID- * Electronic address: jsweitz@gatech.edu; URL: http: //ecotheory.biology.gatech.edu 19 patients, and large-scale viral testing to reduce transmission. Suppression also comes with significant costs, threatening social order and socio-economic health.Here, we propose a complementary intervention approach that is intended to reduce transmi...

Huanglongbing (HLB) disease is threatening citrus production worldwide. The causative agent is “Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus.” Prior work using mapping-based approaches identified prophage-like sequences in some “Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus” genomes but not all. Here, we utilized a de novo approach that expands the number of prophage-like elements found in “Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus” from 16 to 33 and identified at least one prophage-like sequence in all “Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus” strains. Furthermore, we identified a prophage-like sequence type that is a remnant of an integrated prophage—expanding the number of prophage types in “Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus” from 3 to 4. Overall, the findings will help researchers investigate the role of prophage in the ecology, evolution, and pathogenicity of “Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus.”

Epidemiological forecasts of COVID-19 spread at the country and/or state level have helped shape public health interventions. However, such models leave a scale-gap between the spatial resolution of actionable information (i.e. the county or city level) and that of modeled viral spread. States and nations are not spatially homogeneous and different areas may vary in disease risk and severity. For example, COVID-19 has age-stratified risk. Similarly, ICU units, PPE and other vital equipment are not equally distributed within states. Here, we implement a county-level epidemiological framework to assess and forecast COVID-19 spread through Georgia, where 1,933 people have died from COVID-19 and 44,638 cases have been documented as of May 27, 2020. We find that county-level forecasts trained on heterogeneity due to clustered events can continue to predict epidemic spread over multi-week periods, potentially serving efforts to prepare medical resources, manage supply chains, and develop targeted public health interventions. We find that the premature removal of physical (social) distancing could lead to rapid increases in cases or the emergence of sustained plateaus of elevated fatalities.

Background Spiroplasma is a widely distributed endosymbiont of insects, arthropods, and plants. In insects, Spiroplasma colonizes the gut, hemolymph, and reproductive organs of the host. Previous metagenomic surveys of the domesticated carmine cochineal Dactylopius coccus and the wild cochineal D. opuntiae reported sequences of Spiroplasma associated with these insects. However, there is no analysis of the genomic capabilities and the interaction of this Spiroplasma with Dactylopius. Results Here we present three Spiroplasma genomes independently recovered from metagenomes of adult males and females of D. coccus, from two different populations, as well as from adult females of D. opuntiae. Single-copy gene analysis showed that these genomes were > 92% complete. Phylogenomic analyses classified these genomes as new members of Spiroplasma ixodetis. Comparative genome analysis indicated that they exhibit fewer genes involved in amino acid and carbon catabolism compared to other spiroplasmas. Moreover, virulence factor-encoding genes (i.e., glpO, spaid and rip2) were found incomplete in these S. ixodetis genomes. We also detected an enrichment of genes encoding the type IV secretion system (T4SS) in S. ixodetis genomes of Dactylopius. A metratranscriptomic analysis of D. coccus showed that some of these T4SS genes (i.e., traG, virB4 and virD4) in addition to the superoxide dismutase sodA of S. ixodetis were overexpressed in the ovaries. Conclusion The symbiont S. ixodetis is a new member of the bacterial community of D. coccus and D. opuntiae. The recovery of incomplete virulence factor-encoding genes in S. ixodetis of Dactylopius suggests that this bacterium is a non-pathogenic symbiont. A high number of genes encoding the T4SS, in the S. ixodetis genomes and the overexpression of these genes in the ovary and hemolymph of the host suggest that S. ixodetis use the T4SS to interact with the Dactylopius cells. Moreover, the transcriptional differences of S. ixodetis among the gut, hemolymph and ovary tissues of D. coccus indicate that this bacterium can respond and adapt to the different conditions (e.g., oxidative stress) present within the host. All this evidence proposes that there is a strong interaction and molecular signaling in the symbiosis between S. ixodetis and the carmine cochineal Dactylopius.

Huanglongbing (HLB; yellow shoot disease) is a severe worldwide infectious disease for citrus family plants. The pathogen Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas) is an alphaproteobacterium of the Rhizobiaceae family that has been identified as the cause. The virulence of CLas has been attributed, in part, to prophage encoded genes. Prophage and prophage like elements have been identified in 12 of the 15 CLas available genomes, and are classified into three prophage types. Here, we re-examined all 15 CLas genomes using a de novo prediction approach and expanded the number of prophage like elements from 16 to 33. Further, we find that all CLas contain at least one prophage-like sequence. Comparative analysis reveals a prevalent, albeit previously unknown, prophage-like sequence type that is a remnant of an integrated prophage. Notably, this remnant prophage is found in the Ishi-1 CLas strain that had previously been reported as lacking prophages. Our findings provide both a resource and new insights into the evolutionary relationship between phage and CLas pathogenicity.

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