Inferring past demographic histories is crucial in population genetics, and the amount of complete genomes now available should in principle facilitate this inference. In practice, however, the available inferential methods suffer from severe limitations.Although hundreds complete genomes can be simultaneously analysed, complex demographic processes can easily exceed computational constraints, and the procedures to evaluate the reliability of the estimates contribute to increase the computational effort. Here we present an approximate Bayesian computation framework based on the random forest algorithm (ABC-RF), to infer complex past population processes using complete genomes. To this aim, we propose to summarize the data by the full genomic distribution of the four mutually exclusive categories of segregating sites (FDSS), a statistic fast to compute from unphased genome data and that does not require the ancestral state of alleles to be known. We constructed an efficient ABC pipeline and tested how accurately it allows one to recognize the true model among models of increasing complexity, using simulated data and taking into account different sampling strategies in terms of number of individuals analysed, number and size of the genetic loci considered. We also compared the FDSS with the unfolded and folded site frequency spectrum (SFS), and for these statistics we highlighted the experimental conditions maximizing the inferential power of the ABC-RF procedure.We finally analysed real data sets, testing models on the dispersal of anatomically modern humans out of Africa and exploring the evolutionary relationships of the three species of Orangutan inhabiting Borneo and Sumatra.

Southeastern Canada is inhabited by an amalgam of hybridizing wolf-like canids, raising fundamental questions regarding their taxonomy, origins, and timing of hybridization events. Eastern wolves (Canis lycaon), specifically, have been the subject of significant controversy, being viewed as either a distinct taxonomic entity of conservation concern or a recent hybrid of coyotes (C. latrans) and grey wolves (C. lupus). Mitochondrial DNA analyses show some evidence of eastern wolves being North American evolved canids. In contrast, nuclear genome studies indicate eastern wolves are best described as a hybrid entity, but with unclear timing of hybridization events. To test hypotheses related to these competing findings we sequenced whole genomes of 25 individuals, representative of extant Canadian wolf-like canid types of known origin and levels of contemporary hybridization. Here we present data describing eastern wolves as a distinct taxonomic entity that evolved separately from grey wolves for the past ∼67,000 years with an admixture event with coyotes ∼37,000 years ago. We show that Great Lakes wolves originated as a product of admixture between grey wolves and eastern wolves after the last glaciation (∼8,000 years ago) while eastern coyotes originated as a product of admixture between “western” coyotes and eastern wolves during the last century. Eastern wolf nuclear genomes appear shaped by historical and contemporary gene flow with grey wolves and coyotes, yet evolutionary uniqueness remains among eastern wolves currently inhabiting a restricted range in southeastern Canada.

There is a wide consensus in considering Africa as the birthplace of anatomically modern humans (AMH), but the dispersal pattern and the main routes followed by our ancestors to colonize the world are still matters of debate. It is still an open question whether AMH left Africa through a single process, dispersing almost simultaneously over Asia and Europe, or in two main waves, first through the Arab Peninsula into southern Asia and Australo-Melanesia, and later through a northern route crossing the Levant. The development of new methodologies for inferring population history and the availability of worldwide high-coverage whole-genome sequences did not resolve this debate. In this work, we test the two main out-of-Africa hypotheses through an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach, based on the Random-Forest algorithm. We evaluated the ability of the method to discriminate between the alternative models of AMH out-of-Africa, using simulated data. Once assessed that the models are distinguishable, we compared simulated data with real genomic variation, from modern and archaic populations. This analysis showed that a model of multiple dispersals is four-fold as likely as the alternative single-dispersal model. According to our estimates, the two dispersal processes may be placed, respectively, around 74,000 and around 46,000 years ago.

Sicily is one of the main islands of the Mediterranean Sea, and it is characterized by a variety of archaeological records, material culture and traditions, reflecting the history of migrations and populations’ interaction since its first colonization, during the Paleolithic. These deep and complex demographic and cultural dynamics should have affected the genomic landscape of Sicily at different levels; however, the relative impact of these migrations on the genomic structure and differentiation within the island remains largely unknown. The available Sicilian modern genetic data gave a picture of the current genetic structure, but the paucity of ancient data did not allow so far to make predictions about the level of historical variation. In this work, we sequenced and analyzed the complete mitochondrial genomes of 36 individuals from five different locations in Sicily, spanning from Early Bronze Age to Iron Age, and with different cultural backgrounds. The comparison with coeval groups from the Mediterranean Basin highlighted structured genetic variation in Sicily since Early Bronze Age, thus supporting a demic impact of the cultural transitions within the Island. Explicit model testing through Approximate Bayesian Computation allowed us to make predictions about the origin of Sicanians, one of the three indigenous peoples of Sicily, whose foreign origin from Spain, historically attributed, was not confirmed by our analysis of genetic data. Sicilian modern mitochondrial data show a different, more homogeneous, genetic composition, calling for a recent genetic replacement in the Island of pre-Iron Age populations, that should be further investigated.