Contact tracing is an essential tool to mitigate the impact of a pandemic, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been paid to analyzing the privacy and ethical risks of the associated mobile applications, so far much less research has been devoted to optimizing their performance and assessing their impact on the mitigation of the epidemic. We develop Bayesian inference methods to estimate the risk that an individual is infected. This inference is based on the list of his recent contacts and their own risk levels, as well as personal information such as results of tests or presence of syndromes. We propose to use probabilistic risk estimation to optimize testing and quarantining strategies for the control of an epidemic. Our results show that in some range of epidemic spreading (typically when the manual tracing of all contacts of infected people becomes practically impossible but before the fraction of infected people reaches the scale where a lockdown becomes unavoidable), this inference of individuals at risk could be an efficient way to mitigate the epidemic. Our approaches translate into fully distributed algorithms that only require communication between individuals who have recently been in contact. Such communication may be encrypted and anonymized, and thus, it is compatible with privacy-preserving standards. We conclude that probabilistic risk estimation is capable of enhancing the performance of digital contact tracing and should be considered in the mobile applications.
We use numerical bootstrap techniques to study correlation functions of a traceless symmetric tensors of O(N ) with two indexes t ij . We obtain upper bounds on operator dimensions for all the relevant representations and several values of N . We discover several families of kinks, which do not correspond to any known model and we discuss possible candidates. We then specialize to the case N = 4, which has been conjectured to describe a phase transition in the antiferromagnetic real projective model ARP 3 . Lattice simulations provide strong evidence for the existence of a second order phase transition, while an effective field theory approach does not predict any fixed point. We identify a set of assumptions that constrain operator dimensions to a closed region overlapping with the lattice prediction. The region is still present after pushing the numerics in the single correlator case or when considering a mixed system involving t and the lowest dimension scalar singlet.
Direct feedback alignment (DFA) is emerging as an efficient and biologically plausible alternative to backpropagation for training deep neural networks. Despite relying on random feedback weights for the backward pass, DFA successfully trains state-of-the-art models such as transformers. On the other hand, it notoriously fails to train convolutional networks. An understanding of the inner workings of DFA to explain these diverging results remains elusive. Here, we propose a theory of feedback alignment algorithms. We first show that learning in shallow networks proceeds in two steps: an alignment phase, where the model adapts its weights to align the approximate gradient with the true gradient of the loss function, is followed by a memorisation phase, where the model focuses on fitting the data. This two-step process has a degeneracy breaking effect: out of all the low-loss solutions in the landscape, a network trained with DFA naturally converges to the solution which maximises gradient alignment. We also identify a key quantity underlying alignment in deep linear networks: the conditioning of the alignment matrices. The latter enables a detailed understanding of the impact of data structure on alignment, and suggests a simple explanation for the well-known failure of DFA to train convolutional neural networks. Numerical experiments on MNIST and CIFAR10 clearly demonstrate degeneracy breaking in deep non-linear networks and show that the align-then-memorize process occurs sequentially from the bottom layers of the network to the top.
Forward-only" algorithms, which train neural networks while avoiding a backward pass, have recently gained attention as a way of solving the biologically unrealistic aspects of backpropagation. Here, we first discuss the similarities between two "forward-only" algorithms, the Forward-Forward and PEPITA frameworks, and demonstrate that PEPITA is equivalent to a Forward-Forward framework with top-down feedback connections. Then, we focus on PEPITA to address compelling challenges related to the "forwardonly" rules, which include providing an analytical understanding of their dynamics and reducing the gap between their performance and that of backpropagation. We propose a theoretical analysis of the dynamics of PEPITA. In particular, we show that PEPITA is well-approximated by an "adaptive-feedback-alignment" algorithm and we analytically track its performance during learning in a prototype high-dimensional setting. Finally, we develop a strategy to apply the weight mirroring algorithm on "forward-only" algorithms with top-down feedback and we show how it impacts PEPITA's accuracy and convergence rate.
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