This Guidance describes a two-phase approach for a fit-for-purpose method for the assessment of plant pest risk in the territory of the EU. Phase one consists of pest categorisation to determine whether the pest has the characteristics of a quarantine pest or those of a regulated non-quarantine pest for the area of the EU. Phase two consists of pest risk assessment, which may be requested by the risk managers following the pest categorisation results. This Guidance provides a template for pest categorisation and describes in detail the use of modelling and expert knowledge elicitation to conduct a pest risk assessment. The Guidance provides support and a framework for assessors to provide quantitative estimates, together with associated uncertainties, regarding the entry, establishment, spread and impact of plant pests in the EU. The Guidance allows the effectiveness of risk reducing options (RROs) to be quantitatively assessed as an integral part of the assessment framework. A list of RROs is provided. A two-tiered approach is proposed for the use of expert knowledge elicitation and modelling. Depending on data and resources available and the needs of risk managers, pest entry, establishment, spread and impact steps may be assessed directly, using weight of evidence and quantitative expert judgement (first tier), or they may be elaborated in substeps using quantitative models (second tier). An example of an application of the first tier approach is provided. Guidance is provided on how to derive models of appropriate complexity to conduct a second tier assessment. Each assessment is operationalised using Monte Carlo simulations that can compare scenarios for relevant factors, e.g. with or without RROs. This document provides guidance on how to compare scenarios to draw conclusions on the magnitude of pest risks and the effectiveness of RROs and on how to communicate assessment results.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Plant Health Panel updated its pest categorisation of Xylella fastidiosa, previously delivered as part of the pest risk assessment published in 2015. X. fastidiosa is a Gram‐negative bacterium, responsible for various plant diseases, including Pierce's disease, phony peach disease, citrus variegated chlorosis, olive quick decline syndrome, almond leaf scorch and various other leaf scorch diseases. The pathogen is endemic in the Americas and is present in Iran. In the EU, it is reported in southern Apulia in Italy, on the island of Corsica and in the Provence‐Alpes‐Côte d'Azur region in France, as well as in the Autonomous region of Madrid, the province of Alicante and the Balearic Islands in Spain. The reported status is ‘transient, under eradication’, except for the Balearic Islands, Corsica and southern of Apulia, where the status is ‘present with a restricted distribution, under containment’. The pathogen is regulated under Council Directive 2000/29/EC and through emergency measures under http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32015D0789 (as amended http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32017D2352). The pest could enter the EU via host plants for planting and via infectious insect vectors. The host range includes hundreds of host species listed in the EFSA host plant database. In the EU, host plants are widely distributed and climatic conditions are favourable for its establishment. X. fastidiosa can spread by movement of host plants for planting and infectious insect vectors. X. fastidiosa is known to cause severe direct damage to major crops including almonds, citrus, grapevines, olives, stone fruits and also forest trees, landscape and ornamental trees, with high impacts. The criteria assessed by the Panel for consideration as a potential Union quarantine pest are met (the pathogen is present in the EU, but it has a restricted distribution and is under official control). X. fastidiosa is not considered as a regulated non‐quarantine pest (RNQP) as the pathogen may spread also via insect vector transmission.

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The European Commission requested EFSA to conduct a pest categorisation of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) a pest with hosts in 27 plant families. Favoured hosts include maize, rice and sorghum (Poaceae). Hosts also include crops within the Brassicaceae, Cucurbitaceae, Solanaceae, Rutaceae and other families. S. frugiperda is a taxonomic entity with reliable methods for identification. It is regulated in the EU as a harmful organism whose introduction into the EU is banned. It is native to tropical and subtropical regions of the Americas and migrates to temperate regions in North and South America during the summer. Establishment in temperate areas is prevented by its inability to overwinter. S. frugiperda has been intercepted on plant produce entering the EU. Phytosanitary measures are available to impede entry via traded commodities. In 2016, S. frugiperda was reported damaging maize in Africa. Subsequent reports indicate that it continues to spread severely damaging maize and other crops. If S. frugiperda spreads into north Africa, the likelihood of adults migrating into the temperate EU increases. Within the scope and level of analysis appropriate for pest categorisation, the EFSA Plant Health Panel concludes that S. frugiperda could establish in a small area of the southern EU from where it is likely to enter more northern regions forming transient summer populations, particularly in maize growing regions where impacts on yield could occur. However, uncertainties regarding establishment remain. Considering the criteria within the remit of EFSA to assess as regards status as a potential Union quarantine pest (QP) or as a potential regulated non-quarantine pest (RNQP), S. frugiperda satisfies the criteria to be regarded a Union QP but does not meet the criteria of (i) occurring in the EU territory, and (ii) plants for planting being the principal means of spread, criteria required for RNQP status.

Montpe/Iier II (case courrier 065), P/ace S. Batail/on, 34095 Montpe//ier and tLaboratoire de Zoo/ogle, INRA, Z P/ace P. Via/a, 34060 Montpe//ier, FranceThe polymorphism of four isozymes was studied on single females of Tetranychus urticae from Crete (Greece), using an isoelectric focusing technique. Genetic differentiation was found to be correlated with distance but not with the species of colonized host-plants. Thus no differentiation was observed between samples collected on citrus trees, tomato, pumpkin, okra or weed plants located within a 50 m2 area, showing that at this geographical scale T urticae populations are panmictic. In contrast, samples from plants at 150 m or more from one another displayed a significant genetic differentiation. These results are discussed in relation to the known pattern of migration in the species.