The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep‐sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep‐sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold‐water coral and commercially important deep‐sea fish species under present‐day (1951–2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081–2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%–100% in suitable habitat for cold‐water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep‐sea fishes of 2.0°–9.9° towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%–30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%–42% of present‐day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%–14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep‐sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area‐based planning and management tools.

It has been widely acknowledged that fishery discard practices constitute a purposeless waste of valuable living resources, which plays an important role in the depletion of marine populations. Furthermore, discarding may have a number of adverse ecological impacts in marine ecosystems, provoking changes in the overall structure of trophic webs and habitats, which in turn could pose risks for the sustainability of current fisheries. The present review aims to describe the current state-of-the-art in discards research, with particular emphasis on the needs and challenges associated with the implementation of the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM) in European waters. We briefly review the international and European policy contexts of discarding, how discard data are collected and incorporated into stock assessments, selectivity in fishing and the main consequences of discarding for ecosystem dynamics. We then review implementation issues related to reducing discards under the EAFM and the associated scientific challenges, and conclude with some comments on lessons learned and future directions.

Invasive alien species are a great threat to biodiversity and human livelihoods worldwide. The most effective way to limit their impacts and costs is to prevent their introduction into new areas. Identifying invaders and invasions before their occurrence would arguably be the most efficient strategy. Here, we provide a profiling method to predict which species—with which particular ecological characteristics—will invade, and where they could invade. We illustrate our approach with ants, which are among the most detrimental invasive species, as they are responsible for declines of numerous taxa, are involved in local extinctions, disturb ecosystem functioning, and impact multiple human activities. Based on statistical profiling of 1,002 ant species from an extensive trait database, we identify 13 native ant species with an ecological profile that matches that of known invasive ants. Even though they are not currently described as such, these species are likely to become the next global invaders. We couple these predictions with species distribution models to identify the regions most at risk from the invasion of these species: Florida and Central America, Brazil, Central Africa and Madagascar, Southeast Asia, Papua New Guinea Northeast Australia, and many islands worldwide. This framework, applicable to any other taxa, represents a remarkable opportunity to implement timely and specifically shaped proactive management strategies against biological invasions.

Marine ecosystems are increasingly threatened by the cumulative effects of multiple human pressures. Cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) are needed to inform environmental policy and guide ecosystem-based management. Yet, CEAs are inherently complex and seldom linked to real-world management processes. Therefore we propose entrenching CEAs in a risk management process, comprising the steps of risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation. We provide guidance to operationalize a risk-based approach to CEAs by describing for each step guiding principles and desired outcomes, scientific challenges and practical solutions. We reviewed the treatment of uncertainty in CEAs and the contribution of different tools and data sources to the implementation of a risk based approach to CEAs. We show that a risk-based approach to CEAs decreases complexity, allows for the transparent treatment of uncertainty and streamlines the uptake of scientific outcomes into the science-policy interface. Hence, its adoption can help bridging the gap between science and decision-making in ecosystem-based management.

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The use of complex statistical models has substantially increased lately in the context of species distribution behavior. This complexity has made the inferential and predictive processes challenging to perform. The Bayesian approach has become a good option to deal with these models due to the ease with which prior information can be incorporated along with the fact that it provides a more realistic and accurate estimation of uncertainty. In this work, we firstly review the sources of information and different approaches (frequentist and Bayesian) to model the distribution of a species. We also discuss the Integrated Nested Laplace approximation as a tool for obtaining marginal posterior distributions of the parameters involved in these models.We finally discuss some important statistical issues that arise when researchers use species data: the presence of a temporal effect (presenting different spatial and spatio-temporal structures), preferential sampling, spatial misalignment, non-stationarity, imperfect detection, and the excess of zeros.

Species mapping is an essential tool for conservation programmes as it provides clear pictures of the distribution of marine resources. However, in fishery ecology, the amount of objective scientific information is limited and data may not always be directly comparable. Information about the distribution of marine species can be derived from two main sources: fishery-independent data (scientific surveys at sea) and fishery-dependent data (collection and sampling by observers in commercial vessels). The aim of this paper is to compare whether these two different sources produce similar, complementary, or different results. We compare them in the specific context of identifying the Essential Fish Habitats of three elasmobranch species (S. canicula, G. melastomus, and E. spinax). Similarity and prediction statistics are used to compare the two different spatial patterns obtained by applying the same Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling approach in the two sources. Results showed that the spatial patterns obtained are similar, although differences are present. In particular, models based on fishery-dependent data are better able to identify temporal relationships between the probability of presence of the species and seasonal environmental variables. In contrast, fishery-independent data better discriminate spatial locations where a species is present or absent. Besides the spatial and temporal differences of the two datasets, the consistency of habitat results highlights the inclusion in each dataset of most of the environmental envelope of each species, both in time and space. Consequently, sampling data should be adapted to each species to reasonably cover their environmental envelope, and a combination of datasets will likely provide a better habitat estimation than using each dataset independently. These findings can be useful in helping fishery managers improve definition of survey design and analyses.

Spatial and temporal closures of fish nursery areas to fishing have recently been recognized as useful tools for efficient fisheries management, as they preserve the reproductive potential of populations and increase the recruitment of target species. In order to identify and locate potential nursery areas for spatio-temporal closures, a solid understanding of species-environment relationships is needed, as well as spatial identification of fish nurseries through the application of robust analyses. One way to achieve knowledge of fish nurseries is to analyse the persistence of recruitment hotspots. In this study, we propose the comparison of different spatio-temporal model structures to assess the persistence of a spatial process. In particular, we apply our approach to a 2-stage Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model that describes both the occurrence and the abundance of European hake Merluccius merluccius recruits in the western Mediterranean Sea. Results clearly show areas of high occurrence and abundance, mainly along the shelf break and the upper slope of the Spanish Mediterranean coast. Understanding the distributional patterns associated with key life stages such as recruitment is essential for appropriate spatial management, including the implementation of Fisheries Restricted Areas and/or Marine Protected Areas that improve the management of fishery resources