STUDY QUESTION Does the prevalence of euploid blastocysts differ between patients treated with progestin primed ovarian stimulation (PPOS) and those treated with conventional ovarian stimulation? SUMMARY ANSWER The numbers of blastocysts and euploid blastocysts per patient and the number of euploid embryos per injected oocyte are similar for patients undergoing progestin-primed ovarian stimulation and for those undergoing conventional ovarian stimulation with GnRH antagonist. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY New approaches to ovarian stimulation have been developed based on the use of drugs administrable by mouth instead of via injections. Attention has been dedicated to progestins to block the LH surge. Previous data regarding the number of oocytes retrieved and the number of good-quality embryos generated in PPOS have demonstrated similar outcomes when compared to conventional ovarian stimulation, even if some concerns regarding the quality of embryos have been advanced. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This is a prospective non-inferiority age-matched case–control study. In a period of 6 months, a total of 785 blastocysts from 1867 injected oocytes obtained from 192 patients were available for analysis. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Infertile women undergoing IVF and preimplanation genetic testing (PGT) cycles were included. Forty-eight patients were treated with PPOS, and for each of them three age-matched historical controls (n = 144) treated with a GnRH antagonist protocol were selected. PGT was performed according to next-generation sequencing technology. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Basal characteristics were similar in the two groups; a substantial similarity of the main outcome measures in the two treatment groups has also been found. The rate of formation of euploid blastocysts per oocyte was 21% in both the two treatment groups. The percentage of patients with euploid embryos and the total number of euploid blastocysts per patient (median and interquartile range, IQR) in the PPOS group were 38.7 (25.5–52.9) and 2 (1.3–3.1), respectively. These figures were not significantly different in women treated with the GnRH antagonist protocol i.e. 42 (28–53.8) and 2.1 (1.3–2.9), respectively. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION This was a case–control study which may limit the reliability of the main findings. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS Our results encourage the use of PPOS, especially for oocyte donation, for fertility preservation and for patients in which total freezing of embryos is foreseen, for those expected to be high responders or candidates for preimplantation genetic testing. However, studies aiming to investigate the effect of PPOS on the live birth rate are warranted. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) None.
STUDY QUESTION Can the possibility of having at least one euploid blastocyst for embryo transfer and the total number of euploid blastocysts be predicted for couples before they enter the IVF programme? SUMMARY ANSWER Ovarian reserve and female age are the most important predictors of having at least one euploid blastocyst and the total number of euploid blastocysts. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY The blastocyst euploidy rate among women undergoing ART has already been shown to significantly decrease with increasing female age, and the total number of euploid embryos is dependent on the blastocyst cohort size. However, the vast majority of published studies are based on retrospective analysis of data. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This prospective analysis included 847 consecutively enrolled couples approaching their first preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidies (PGT-A) cycle between 2017 and 2020. Only couples for whom ejaculated sperm was available and women with a BMI of <35 kg/m2 were included in the study. Only the first cycle was included for each patient. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The study was conducted at an IVF centre where, for all patients, the planned treatment was to obtain embryos at the blastocyst stage for the PGT-A programme. The impact of the following covariates was investigated: a woman’s serum AMH level, age, height, weight and BMI and a man’s age, height, weight, BMI, sperm volume and sperm motility and morphology. The analysis was performed with a machine learning (ML) approach. Models were fit on the training set (677 patients) and their predictive performance was then evaluated on the test set (170 patients). MAIN RESULTS AND ROLE OF CHANCE After ovarian stimulation and oocyte insemination, 40.1% of couples had at least one blastocyst available for the PGT-A. Of 1068 blastocysts analysed, 33.6% were euploid. Two distinct ML models were fit: one for the probability of having at least one euploid blastocyst and one for the number of euploid blastocysts obtained. In the training set of patients, the variable importance plots of both models indicated that AMH and the woman’s age are by far the most important predictors. Specifically, a positive association between the outcome and AMH and a negative association between the outcome and female age appeared. Gradient-boosted modelling offers a greater predictive performance than generalized additive models (GAMs). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The study was performed based on data from a single centre. While this provides a robust set of data with a constant ART process and laboratory practice, the model might be suitable only for the evaluated population, which may limit the generalization of the model to other populations. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS ML models indicate that for couples entering the IVF/PGT-A programme, ovarian reserve, which is known to vary with age, is the most important predictor of having at least one euploid embryo. According to the GAM, the probability of a 30-year-old woman having at least one euploid embryo is 28% or 47% if her AMH level is 1 or 3 ng/ml, respectively; if the woman is 40 years old, this probability is 18% with an AMH of 1 ng/ml and 30% with an AMH of 3 ng/ml. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This study was supported by an unrestricted grant from Gedeon Richter. The authors declared no conflict of interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER N/A.
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