<p>Las áreas naturales protegidas representan una de las estrategias para la mitigación del cambio climático. El objetivo de esta investigación consistió en estimar el contenido de carbono en biomasa forestal en suelos minerales y calcular las pérdidas de carbono por cambios de uso del suelo en el Parque Nacional Malinche (PNM). La superficie de bosque del PNM es de 17.496,34 ha y almacena 1.544.377,66 mg en bosque y 4.148.985,97 mg en suelos. Para estimar el contenido de biomasa forestal se aplicaron ecuaciones alométricas y se trabajó con la cartografía del Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) en el análisis espacio-temporal de los cambios de uso de suelo. Para el carbono en suelos se aplicaron los valores del Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático (IPCC).</p>
This paper presents the results of the application of a prospective model that combines the analysis of time series of land use in the State of Mexico, based on the land use information generated by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). We compare two sets of data to obtain a transition matrix that allows a future projection, using stochastic processes, Markov chains and cellular automata, and technical matrix spatiotemporal analysis environment incorporated in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Thus an estimation of carbon content was obtained once applying allometric equations per categories and sampling points taking into account the National Forest Inventory and the development of vegetation, primary or secondary, and vegetative stages. As a result of this study the estimation of carbon reserves for 2010 in the State of Mexico summed up to 0.167556208 and 13,003 Gt in forest and tropical deciduous forests, respectively. We conclude that under the methodologies used, the possible variations of projected land establish a baseline to prospect on the efforts deployed in different evolving scenarios.
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