As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro‐climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.
Abstract. Floods in the Mediterranean region are often surface water floods, in which intense precipitation is usually the main driver. Determining the link between the causes and impacts of floods can make it easier to calculate the level of flood risk. However, up until now, the limitations in quantitative observations for flood-related damages have been a major obstacle when attempting to analyse flood risk in the Mediterranean. Flood-related insurance damage claims for the last 20 years could provide a proxy for flood impact, and this information is now available in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia, in northeast Spain. This means a comprehensive analysis of the links between flood drivers and impacts is now possible. The objective of this paper is to develop and evaluate a methodology to estimate flood damages from heavy precipitation in a Mediterranean region. Results show that our model is able to simulate the probability of a damaging event as a function of precipitation. The relationship between precipitation and damage provides insights into flood risk in the Mediterranean and is also promising for supporting flood management strategies.
This contribution explores the evolution of the flood risk in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (MAB; Northeast Spain) from 1981 to 2015, and how it has been affected by changes in land use, population and precipitation. To complete this study, we analysed PRESSGAMA and INUNGAMA databases to look for all the information related to the floods and flash floods that have affected the chosen region. The "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros", a state insurance company for extraordinary risks, provided data on economic damage. The extreme precipitation trend was analysed by the Fabra Observatory and El Prat-Airport Observatory, and daily precipitation data were provided by the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Population data was obtained from the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (IDESCAT). Changes in land use were estimated from the land use maps for
Abstract. Flooding is one of the main natural hazards in the world and causes huge economic and human impacts. Assessing the flood damage in the Mediterranean region is of great importance, especially because of its large vulnerability to climate change. Most past floods affecting the region were caused by intense precipitation events; thus the analysis of the links between precipitation and flood damage is crucial. The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood events with global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and taking into account different socioeconomic scenarios in two western Mediterranean regions, namely Catalonia and the Valencian Community. To do this, we analyse the relationship between heavy precipitation and flood-damage estimates from insurance datasets in those two regions. We consider an ensemble of seven regional climate model (RCM) simulations spanning the period 1976–2100 to evaluate precipitation changes and to drive a logistic model that links precipitation and flood-damage estimates, thus deriving statistics under present and future climates. Furthermore, we incorporate population projections based on five different socioeconomic scenarios. The results show a general increase in the probability of a damaging event for most of the cases and in both regions of study, with larger increments when higher warming is considered. Moreover, this increase is higher when both climate and population change are included. When population is considered, all the periods and models show a clearly higher increase in the probability of damaging events, which is statistically significant for most of the cases. Our findings highlight the need for limiting global warming as much as possible as well as the importance of including variables that consider change in both climate and socioeconomic conditions in the analysis of flood damage.
La presente investigación persigue definir y comprender el papel que desempeñan los profesionales educativos como agentes responsables de la capacitación de los jóvenes con Diversidad Funcional Intelectual (en adelante DFI) en habilidades y competencias socio-laborales. Para ello, nos decantamos por un diseño de investigación mixta, utilizando cuestionarios y entrevistas semiestructuradas para la recogida de información. De esta forma, indagamos en la importancia de otorgar una formación de calidad a orientadores y docentes, que les capacite para fomentar en los jóvenes con DFI el desarrollo de habilidades y competencias sociales y laborales que faciliten su acceso al empleo y a la vida adulta. Además, descubrimos la relevancia de formar a estos profesionales en metodologías innovadoras que atiendan a la diversidad de su alumnado y promuevan la transferibilidad de los aprendizajes hacia nuevos contextos; y también la gran implicación que existe por parte de estos profesionales, aunque carezcan de los recursos suficientes.
Hydrometeorological risks are the most important natural hazard in the world. Among them, flood risk is the one that affects more population and causes the greatest damages. Their mitigation and adaptation to the impact that climate change has on them is a priority in most government agendas. However, recent reports and papers still show significant uncertainty associated with their future development. Uncertainty is still higher when we consider the interaction with society and the changes in vulnerability. Therefore, they need to be treated from a holistic perspective that integrates bottom-up (from impact and vulnerability) and top-down (from hazard) approaches in the same methodology. Besides this, the Hyogo and Sendai protocols developed by UNISDR insist in the development of adaptation measures through the improvement in risk awareness and resilience. This communication shows a holistic approach to cope with flood risk in adaptation planning, the different tools and procedures for a better empowerment of the population, and the limits of the different adaptation measures when the impact of climate change is considered. The study is focused in Catalonia located in the east of the Iberian Peninsula.
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