OBJECTIVES Demand for heart transplant donors worldwide continues to outstrip supply. Transplanting hearts following donation after circulatory-determined death (DCD) is increasingly recognized as a safe and effective alternative. As the fourth centre worldwide to have established such a programme, our goal was to present our initial experience. METHODS This was a single-centre retrospective observational study. All DCD hearts were retrieved using direct procurement and perfusion. Continuous normothermic perfusion of the procured heart was then established on the TransMedics® Organ Care System. The primary outcome of this study was the 30-day survival rate. RESULTS Between May 2017 and December 2018, 8 DCD hearts were procured and 7 were subsequently implanted, including in 2 patients who had left ventricular assist devices explanted. During the same time period, 30 patients received donation after brainstem death heart transplants. Therefore, the DCD heart transplant programme led to a 23% increase in transplant activity. The median donation warm ischaemic time was 34 min [interquartile range (IQR) 31–39 min]. The median functional warm ischaemic time was 28 min (IQR 25–30 min). The median time spent by the organ on the Organ Care System was 263 min (IQR 242–296 min). The overall 30-day survival rate was 100% and the 90-day survival rate was 86%. Postoperative extracorporeal membrane oxygenation was required in 3/7 (43%). CONCLUSIONS DCD heart transplants can lead to a 23% increase in heart transplant activity and should be adopted by more institutions across the world. Already established transplant programmes with good early outcomes can start such a programme safely.

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OBJECTIVES National guidelines advocate the use of clinical prediction models to estimate perioperative mortality for patients undergoing lung resection. Several models have been developed that may potentially be useful but contemporary external validation studies are lacking. The aim of this study was to validate existing models in a multicentre patient cohort. METHODS The Thoracoscore, Modified Thoracoscore, Eurolung, Modified Eurolung, European Society Objective Score and Brunelli models were validated using a database of 6600 patients who underwent lung resection between 2012 and 2018. Models were validated for in-hospital or 30-day mortality (depending on intended outcome of each model) and also for 90-day mortality. Model calibration (calibration intercept, calibration slope, observed to expected ratio and calibration plots) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) were assessed as measures of model performance. RESULTS Mean age was 66.8 years (±10.9 years) and 49.7% (n = 3281) of patients were male. In-hospital, 30-day, perioperative (in-hospital or 30-day) and 90-day mortality were 1.5% (n = 99), 1.4% (n = 93), 1.8% (n = 121) and 3.1% (n = 204), respectively. Model area under the receiver operating characteristic curves ranged from 0.67 to 0.73. Calibration was inadequate in five models and mortality was significantly overestimated in five models. No model was able to adequately predict 90-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS Five of the validated models were poorly calibrated and had inadequate discriminatory ability. The modified Eurolung model demonstrated adequate statistical performance but lacked clinical validity. Development of accurate models that can be used to estimate the contemporary risk of lung resection is required.

Measurements of urinary GH following exercise can distinguish between GH-deficient adults and healthy volunteers. Urinary GH excretion can be measured over a timed interval following exercise or can be expressed as the GH/CR ratio. This can be measured on a single sample following exercise and can be used to diagnose GH deficiency. The exercise test employed for this study is arduous. We are therefore performing further studies with a less strenuous exercise protocol with a view to designing a 'patient-friendly' exercise test for GH deficiency in adults.

OBJECTIVES Guidelines advocate that patients being considered for thoracic surgery should undergo a comprehensive preoperative risk assessment. Multiple risk prediction models to estimate the risk of mortality after thoracic surgery have been developed, but their quality and performance has not been reviewed in a systematic way. The objective was to systematically review these models and critically appraise their performance. METHODS The Cochrane Library and the MEDLINE database were searched for articles published between 1990 and 2019. Studies that developed or validated a model predicting perioperative mortality after thoracic surgery were included. Data were extracted based on the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies. RESULTS A total of 31 studies describing 22 different risk prediction models were identified. There were 20 models developed specifically for thoracic surgery with two developed in other surgical specialties. A total of 57 different predictors were included across the identified models. Age, sex and pneumonectomy were the most frequently included predictors in 19, 13 and 11 models, respectively. Model performance based on either discrimination or calibration was inadequate for all externally validated models. The most recent data included in validation studies were from 2018. Risk of bias (assessed using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool) was high for all except two models. CONCLUSIONS Despite multiple risk prediction models being developed to predict perioperative mortality after thoracic surgery, none could be described as appropriate for contemporary thoracic surgery. Contemporary validation of available models or new model development is required to ensure that appropriate estimates of operative risk are available for contemporary thoracic surgical practice.

Purpose of the studyPostoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a recognised complication in approximately 10% of major lung resections. In order to best target preoperative treatment, this study aimed at determining the association of incidence of POAF in patients undergoing lung resection to surgical and anatomical factors, such as surgical approach, extent of resection and laterality.Study designEvaluation of Post-operative Atrial Fibrillation in Thoracic surgery (EPAFT): a multicentre, population-based, retrospective, cross-sectional, observational study including 1367 patients undergoing lung resections between April 2016 and March 2017. The primary outcome was the presence of POAF following resection. POAF was defined as at least one episode of symptomatic or asymptomatic AF confirmed by ECG within 7 days from the thoracic procedure or prior to discharge from the hospital.ResultsPOAF was observed in 7.4% of patients: 3.1% in minor resection (video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS): 2.5%; thoracotomy: 3.8%), 9.0% in simple lobectomy (VATS: 7.3%, thoracotomy: 9.9%), 6.0% in complex resection (thoracotomy: 6.3%) and 11.4% in pneumonectomy. POAF was higher in left (4.0%) vs right (2.4%) minor resections, and in left (9.9%) vs right (8.3%) lobectomy, but higher in right (7.5%) complex resections, and the highest in right pneumonectomy (17.6%). No significant variations were observed as per sex, laterality or resected lobes. A positive univariable and multivariable association was observed for increasing age and increasing extent of resection, but not thoracotomy. Median (Q1–Q3) hospital stay was 9 (7–14) days in POAF and 5 (4–7) days in non-AF patients (p<0.001), with an increased cerebrovascular accident burden (p<0.001) and long-term mortality (p<0.001).ConclusionsAmong patients undergoing lung resection, POAF was significantly associated with age, increasing invasiveness of approach and increasing extent of resection. In addition, POAF carried a significant long-term mortality rate and burden of cerebrovascular accident. Appropriate prophylaxis should be targeted at these groups.

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