Theories about biological limits to life span and evolutionary shaping of human longevity depend on facts about mortality at extreme ages, but these facts have remained a matter of debate. Do hazard curves typically level out into high plateaus eventually, as seen in other species, or do exponential increases persist? In this study, we estimated hazard rates from data on all inhabitants of Italy aged 105 and older between 2009 and 2015 (born 1896-1910), a total of 3836 documented cases. We observed level hazard curves, which were essentially constant beyond age 105. Our estimates are free from artifacts of aggregation that limited earlier studies and provide the best evidence to date for the existence of extreme-age mortality plateaus in humans.
The ageing of the population is reshaping a large part of the economic and social order, with pervasive and transversal consequences that reflect on production, consumption, labour, and especially on welfare. To govern a development of this kind, it is essential to have an innovative approach, capable of stimulating targeted and systematic policies, and capable of facing the structural change of ageing, transforming it from a burden to a resource for our society. Since the beginning of the new millennium, there has been a gradual attention to the phenomenon of demographic ageing at an international level, which has prompted the European Union to proclaim 2012 as the European Year for Active Ageing and Solidarity between Generations. Recommendations from the international organizations to individual countries on adopting active ageing policies led to the creation of the Active Ageing Index (AAI). Istat has extensively contributed to the AAI interacting with its international partners (UNECE and the European Commission).There is no doubt that AAI is a useful tool, both for measuring achieved progress in the area of active ageing, and for promoting the implementation and the evaluation of policies aimed at improving any potential aspect that does not show satisfactory results. AAI consists of four dimensions and 22 indicators. Using nationally representative data, it was first disseminated in Italy as the product of an experiment focused on the subnational level to provides overall and individual domain values, placing Istat at the forefront among European statistical institutes.
This study analyzes the political reasons that allowed the Islamic State to expand successfully in Syria and Iraq, by enabling to 'franchise' worldwide, and the role of the regional
This paper analyzes the multilateral Brazilian foreign policy, making the country a regional pivot in Latin America, a leading nation among developing countries, and an emerging world power. Without the status of nuclear power, Brazil establishes asymmetrical alliances to earn a place in a reformed UN Security Council, but must contend the seat with accredited competitors, such as India, as well a strategic partner, and counteract some riotous neighbors, as Mexico and Argentina. Meanwhile, through the establishment and the membership in several international organizations and multilateral mechanisms, Brasília developes a worldwide policy, maneuvering between new and old alliances, and playing a 'winning and losing carambole game'. Will the chrysalis turn into a butterfly?
Old age and adult mortality have over the last decades enjoyed a remarkable decline throughout the western world, posing the researcher with new challenges and opening up fresh horizons in life expectancy trends. The recent drop in mortality may be largely traced to the unexpected decline in cardiovascular diseases and certain cancers. Thus it could be hoped that in the future these trends would continue and extend to include other causes where, for the moment, little change has occurred. Such a hypothesis is all the more realistic in view of the fact that recent changes are linked, not just to advances in more efficacious medical treatment, but also to a growing awareness on the part of the general public regarding questions of health and the crucial role played by life style and behaviour. These include improved dietary habits, for example, a better attitude to risk factors, particularly to smoking, alcohol abuse, dangerous driving, etc. This awareness, which prevails among more recent, well-informed and better educated cohorts, not only produces immediate results, but maybe even more so in the future, should this spare coming generations the accumulation of risks which were and continue to be the burden particularly of older cohorts. These considerations have increasingly encouraged researchers to refute the timid claims regarding future mortality generally made by Institutes of Statistics when This paper is an update of Caselli and Vallin (1999a) (in French) and Caselli and Vallin (1999b) (in English).
This article addresses the problem of international law enforcement within the War onCyberterrorism. Hybrid conflicts have replaced the traditional ones, and new threats have emerged in cyberspace, which has become a virtual battlefield. Cyber threats -cybercrimes, cyberterrorism, cyberwarfare -are a major concern for Western governments, especially for the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The international community has begun to consider cyberattacks as a form of terrorism, to which the same measures apply. Because the term "terrorism" is ambiguous and legaly undefined, there is no consensus on a definition of the derivative term "cyberterrorism", which is left to the unilateral interpretations of states. Pretending to consider the cyberspace domain as traditional domains, and claiming to apply IHL for the sole purpose of lawfully using armed forces in contrast to cyberterrorism is a stretch. This paper addresses the question of whether or not current laws of war and international humanitarian law apply to cyber domain, and gives some recommendations on how to tackle this issue.
Beltrán-Sánchez et al. based their comment on misleading calculations of the maximum survival age. With realistic numbers of people attaining age 105 and the estimated plateau, the Jeanne Calment record is indeed plausible.
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