Immigration to the UK, particularly among more educated workers, has risen appreciably over the past 30 years and as such has raised labor supply. However studies of the impact of immigration have failed to find any significant effect on the wages of native-born workers in the UK. This is potentially puzzling since there is evidence that changes in the supply of educated natives have had significant effects on their wages. Using a pooled time series of British crosssectional micro data on male wages and employment from the mid-1970s to the mid-2000s, this paper offers one possible resolution to this puzzle, namely that in the UK natives and foreign born workers are imperfect substitutes. We show that immigration has primarily reduced the wages of immigrants -and in particular of university educated immigrants -with little discernable effect on the wages of the native-born. JEL Classification No. J6
More than 80% of Italian men aged 18–30 live with their parents. We argue that one contributing factor to this remarkably high rate of cohabitation is parents' tastes for coresidence. In order to investigate the role of parental preferences, we estimate the effect of exogenous changes in parental income on rates of cohabitation in Italy using Survey of Households' Income and Wealth (SHIW) micro data from 1989 to 2000. In order to identify a source of exogenous variation in parental income, we use changes in fathers' retirement age induced by the 1992 reform of the Italian Social Security system as an instrumental variable for parental income. By raising retirement age, this reform forced some fathers to remain in the labor market longer than they would have otherwise, therefore raising their disposable income. We use a two‐sample instrumental variable (TSIV) strategy. Our TSIV estimates indicate that a rise in parents' income significantly raises the children's propensity to live at home: A 10% increase in annual parental income results in approximately a 10% rise in the proportion of men living with their parents. Although we cannot definitely rule out alternative interpretations, these results are consistent with our hypothesis that cohabitation is a normal good for Italian parents. (JEL: J120, J610, H550)
We estimate the impact of a large anti-poverty program -the Uruguayan PANES -on political support for the government that implemented it. The program mainly consisted of a monthly cash transfer for a period of roughly two and half years. Using the discontinuity in program assignment based on a pre-treatment score, we find that beneficiary households are 21 to 28 percentage points more likely to favor the current government (relative to the previous government). Impacts on political support are larger among poorer households and for those near the center of the political spectrum, consistent with the probabilistic voting model in political economy. Effects persist after the cash transfer program ends. We estimate that the annual cost of increasing government political support by 1 percentage point is roughly 0.9% of annual government social expenditures.
Can digital information and communication technology (ICT) foster mass political mobilization? We use a novel geo-referenced dataset for the entire African continent between 1998 and 2012 on the coverage of mobile phone signal together with geo-referenced data from multiple sources on the occurrence of protests and on individual participation in protests to bring this argument to empirical scrutiny. We find that while mobile phones are instrumental to mass mobilization, this only happens during economic downturns, when reasons for grievance emerge and the cost of participation falls. The results are in line with insights from a network model with imperfect information and strategic complementarities in protest occurrence. Mobile phones make individuals more responsive to both changes in economic conditions -a mechanism that we ascribe to enhanced information -and to their neighbors' participation -a mechanism that we ascribe to enhanced coordination. from useful comments by seminar participants at several institutions. We are also very grateful to John Allen at CollinsBartholomew, Timothy Thomas at IFPRI and Susmita Dasgupta at the World Bank for their invaluable assistance with the mobile phone data, and to Carmen Alpin Lardies for her invaluable help with the Afrobarometer data. Users interested in accessing the mobile phone coverage data should consult the attached material for conditions and further instructions.
Changes in the relative wages of workers with different amounts of education have profound implications for developing countries, where initial levels of inequality are often very high. In this paper we use micro data for five Latin American countries over the 1980s and 1990s to document trends in men's returns to education, and to estimate whether the changes in skill premia we observe can be explained by supply or demand factors. We propose a model of demand for skills with three production inputs, and we allow the elasticity of substitution between the different educational inputs to be different using a nested CES function. Using this model, we show that the dramatic expansion in secondary school in many countries in Latin America depressed the wages of workers with secondary school. We also show that there have been sharp increases in the demand for more skilled workers in the region.
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