Neste artigo é feita uma análise da influência das variações cambiais sobre os componentes comerciais da conta corrente do balanço de pagamentos no Brasil, no período compreendido entre janeiro de 1995 e janeiro de 2006, com freqüência de dados mensal. O tratamento econométrico adotado fundamentou-se na análise de cointegração. Buscou-se também retirar das elasticidades calculadas os efeitos das mudanças institucionais pela aplicação do índice de Divísia. Pôde-se concluir com razoabilidade aceitável que, sem levar em consideração as mudanças institucionais, as variações cambiais exerceram influência significativa nos componentes da balança comercial do Brasil, no período analisado. Os mecanismos de correção de erros sinalizaram que os desequilíbrios de curto prazo podem ser corrigidos num tempo relativamente curto.
In this paper it is analyzed the influence of the exchange rate movements on Brazil's current account from January 1995 to January 2006. The frequency of the data is monthly. The econometric treatment adopted was based on the cointegration analysis. By the application of the Divísia index the effects of the institutional changes on the calculated elasticities were removed. It can be concluded with acceptable certainty that without taking into consideration the institutional changes, the exchange rate variations exerted significant influence on the current account balance in the studied period. The mechanism of correction of error indicated that the unbalances of short term do need a relatively short time to be corrected
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