Abstract. Located in a mountainous area of south-eastern Brazil, the municipality of Campos do Jordão has been hit by several landslides in recent history. Among those events, the landslides of early 2000 were significant in terms of the number of deaths (10), the population affected and the destruction of infrastructure that was caused. The purpose of this study is to assess the relative contribution of natural and human factors to triggering the landslides of the 2000 event. To achieve this goal, a detailed geotechnical survey was conducted in three representative slopes of the area to obtain geotechnical parameters needed for slope stability analysis. Then, a set of numerical experiments with GEO-SLOPE software was designed, including separate natural and anthropic factors. Results showed that natural factors, that is, high-intensity rainfall and geotechnical conditions, were not severe enough to trigger landslides in the study area and that human disturbance was entirely responsible for the landslide events of 2000. Since the anthropic effects used in the simulations are typical of hazardous urban areas in Brazil, we concluded that the implementation of public policies that constrain the occupation of landslide susceptible areas are urgently needed.
The monitoring of related hourly and accumulated rainfall index requires that critical thresholds of accumulated 72 hours rainfall are updated frequently according with the factors and local conditions (natural and anthropic) of each specific risk area. The importance of empirical methods is fundamental to confirm the relationship between rainfall intensity and accumulated rainfall with the mass movement events, in order to establish the critical threshold values. The present work performs an evaluation of the record data of mass movement events occurred in Sao Paulo State North coast region for a 4-year period (2014 to 2018) considering different mass movement characteristics (slope type, magnitude and impact level). Some rainfall values were obtained to show that within these parameters an event related to natural and anthropic features was triggered. A database was created, sorting source of information and municipalities monitored, to implement the correlation between the mass movement events and the rainfall values. To elaborate the event's map, reliable record data of localization of the mass movement events was selected, as well as the nearest possible raingauges of CEMADEN (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters); also the exact event triggering time, selection by the slope type, the magnitude and the impact level of the mass movement event. The rainfall values of these raingauges allowed the calculation of the accumulated rainfall index for 1, 3, 6, 24, 48, 72 and 96 hours, with the adoption of the 72 hours index for this work. The correlation graphics are divided by the slope type, the magnitude and the impact level of the mass movement event. Different How to cite this paper: Metodiev, D.event by the influence level of triggering factors, natural and/or anthropic.
Abstract.Results from plasma wave experiments in spacecraft give support to nonlinear interactions involving Langmuir waves, electromagnetic waves and ion-acoustic waves in association with type III solar radio bursts. In this paper we present a theory of the fundamental plasma emission of type-III solar radio bursts. Starting from the generalized Zakharov equations, considering the pump wave as a pair of oppositely propagating Langmuir waves with different amplitudes, and the excitation of electromagnetic and induced Langmuir waves, we obtain a general dispersion relation for the coupled waves. We numerically solve the general dispersion relation using the pump wave amplitude and plasma parameters as observed in the interplanetary medium. We compare our results with previous models. We find that the stability properties depend on the pump wave numbers and on the ratio of wave amplitude between the forward and backward pump wave. The inclusion of a second pump wave allows the simultaneous generation of up and down converted electromagnetic waves. The presence of a second pump with different amplitude from the first one brings a region of convective instability not present when amplitudes are the same.
Abstract. Located in a mountain area of Southeast Brazil, the municipality of Campos do Jordao has been hit by several landslides in recent history. Among those events, the landslides of early 2000 were significant for the number of deaths (10), the population affected and the destruction of infrastructure that caused. The purpose of this study is to assess the relative contribution of natural and human factors in triggering the landslides of the 2000 event. To achieve this goal, a detailed geotechnical survey was conducted in three representative slopes of the area to obtain geotechnical parameters needed for slope stability analysis. Then, a set of numerical experiment with Geo-Slope software was designed including natural and anthropic factors separately. Results showed that natural factors, thus is, high intensity rainfall and geotechnical conditions, were not severe enough to trigger landslides in the study area and that human disturbance were entirely responsible for the landslides events of 2000. Since the anthropic effects used in the simulations are typical of Brazilian hazardous urban areas, we concluded that the implementation of public policies that constrain the occupation of landslide susceptible areas are urgently needed
This work describes the two-way coupling performed between the regional atmospheric model Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) and the hydrological model MGB-IPH. As a first step of the atmosphere-hydrology coupling, only the water balance variables were coupled.Differences in temporal and spatial scales between MGH-IPH and BRAMS were analyzed. By default, MGB-IPH has a daily time step whereas BRAMS uses smaller time steps. Thus, accumulated rainfall values from BRAMS were used to feed MGB-IPH. On the other hand, daily values of evapotranspiration from MGB-IPH were provided to BRAMS. This procedure was assumed as a daily loop in the simulations. Differences in spatial scales were avoided by using the same grid size (10 × 10 km) in both models, in such a way that neither upscaling nor downscaling was necessary. The coupled system was tested for the Rio Grande basin situated in south-eastern Brazil by comparing results from BRAMS with results from the coupled system for the same period, with the same input data. Outputs from the runs were compared to water vapor satellite images. The results from the coupled model tests indicated that its predictions of rainfall distribution were more accurate than BRAMS.
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