As the COVID-19 outbreak is developing the two most frequently reported statistics seem to be the raw confirmed case and case fatalities counts. Focusing on Italy, one of the hardest hit countries, we look at how these two values could be put in perspective to reflect the dynamics of the virus spread. In particular, we find that merely considering the confirmed case counts would be very misleading. The number of daily tests grows, while the daily fraction of confirmed cases to total tests has a change point. It (depending on region) generally increases with strong fluctuations till (around, depending on region) 15–22 March and then decreases linearly after. Combined with the increasing trend of daily performed tests, the raw confirmed case counts are not representative of the situation and are confounded with the sampling effort. This we observe when regressing on time the logged fraction of positive tests and for comparison the logged raw confirmed count. Hence, calibrating model parameters for this virus’s dynamics should not be done based only on confirmed case counts (without rescaling by the number of tests), but take also fatalities and hospitalization count under consideration as variables not prone to be distorted by testing efforts. Furthermore, reporting statistics on the national level does not say much about the dynamics of the disease, which are taking place at the regional level. These findings are based on the official data of total death counts up to 15 April 2020 released by ISTAT and up to 10 May 2020 for the number of cases. In this work, we do not fit models but we rather investigate whether this task is possible at all. This work also informs about a new tool to collect and harmonize official statistics coming from different sources in the form of a package for the statistical environment and presents the “.”

Background: In the present study, we sought to evaluate the complement activation product C4d as a marker for lupus nephritis in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods: C4d levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in plasma samples of patients with established SLE using a novel approach based on detection of a short linear cleavage neoepitope. Cross-sectional associations were studied in 98 patients with SLE with samples taken at lower or higher respective disease activity. Temporal associations were investigated in 69 patients with SLE who were followed longitudinally for up to 5 years. Plasma samples from 77 healthy donors were included as controls. Results: C4d levels were negligible in healthy control subjects and significantly increased in patients with SLE in the cross-sectional study (p < 0.0001). C4d levels discriminated between higher and lower disease activity according to ROC curve analysis (p < 0.001), exhibiting a positive predictive value of 68%. At higher disease activity, C4d levels correlated with the modified Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (p = 0.011) and predominantly with lupus nephritis (p = 0.003), exhibiting a sensitivity of 79% to identify patients with nephritis. High C4d levels together with the presence of anti-dsDNA autoantibodies preceded and thus predicted future lupus nephritis in the longitudinal study (OR 5.4,3). When we considered only patients with renal involvement (19 of 69) during the longitudinal study, we found that high C4d levels alone could forecast recurrence of future lupus nephritis (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.2-9.6).Conclusions: C4d appears to be a valuable marker for use in monitoring of patients with SLE, particularly for lupus nephritis. Importantly, C4d levels can predict impending flares of lupus nephritis and may thus be useful for informing treatment.

Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK) is a part of the B-cell receptor (BCR) signaling pathway.Activation of the BCR appears crucial for normal B cells as it regulates proliferation, differentiation, adhesion, survival, and apoptosis. Such signaling is also vital for malignant B cells, since many of them show constitutive activation of the BCR pathway. The development of ibrutinib, a best-in-class BTK inhibitor, has led to a new direction in the treatment of B-cell malignancies. Further studies have enabled the development of more potent and more selective BTK inhibitors, such as zanubrutinib. These novel agents were designed primarily to reduce adverse effects such as diarrhea, atrial fibrillation, rash, or hemorrhagic complications.Compelling data from clinical studies that have verified its efficacy and safety has allowed the approval of zanubrutinib in hematological malignancies such as mantle cell lymphoma, Waldenström's macroglobulinemia, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, and marginal zone lymphoma.