SignificanceMeeting human needs while sustaining ecosystems and the benefits they provide is a global challenge. Coastal marine systems present a particularly important case, given that >50% of the world’s population lives within 100 km of the coast and fisheries are the primary source of protein for >1 billion people worldwide. Our integrative analysis here yields an understanding of the sustainability of coupled social-ecological systems that is quite distinct from that provided by either the biophysical or the social sciences alone and that illustrates the feasibility and value of operationalizing the social-ecological systems framework for comparative analyses of coupled systems, particularly in data-poor and developing nation settings.

We engaged in cooperative research with fishers and stakeholders to characterize the fine-scale, spatio-temporal characteristics of spawning behavior in an aggregating marine fish (Cynoscion othonopterus: Sciaenidae) and coincident activities of its commercial fishery in the Upper Gulf of California. Approximately 1.5–1.8 million fish are harvested annually from spawning aggregations of C. othonopterus during 21–25 days of fishing and within an area of 1,149 km2 of a biosphere reserve. Spawning and fishing are synchronized on a semi-lunar cycle, with peaks in both occurring 5 to 2 days before the new and full moon, and fishing intensity and catch are highest at the spawning grounds within a no-take reserve. Results of this study demonstrate the benefits of combining GPS data loggers, fisheries data, biological surveys, and cooperative research with fishers to produce spatio-temporally explicit information relevant to the science and management of fish spawning aggregations and the spatial planning of marine reserves.

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No-take marine reserves can be powerful management tools, but only if they are well designed and effectively managed. We review how ecological guidelines for improving marine reserve design can be adapted based on an area's unique evolutionary, oceanic, and ecological characteristics in the Gulf of California, Mexico. We provide ecological guidelines to maximize benefits for fisheries management, biodiversity conservation and climate change adaptation. These guidelines include: representing 30% of each major habitat (and multiple examples of each) in marine reserves within each of three biogeographic subregions; protecting critical areas in the life cycle of focal species (spawning and nursery areas) and sites with unique biodiversity; and establishing reserves in areas where local threats can be managed effectively. Given that strong, asymmetric oceanic currents reverse direction twice a year, to maximize 123Rev Fish Biol Fisheries (2018) 28:749-776 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-018-9529-y( 0123456789().,-volV) (0123456789().,-volV)

Extended Data Fig. 2 | Fuzzy sets for resource availability criteria. These are visual representations of the fuzzy sets for each indicator, including set shapes and thresholds, corresponding names and indicator ranges. Extended Data Fig. 3 | Fuzzy sets for economic viability criteria. These are visual representations of the fuzzy sets for each indicator, including set shapes and thresholds, corresponding names and indicator ranges. Article Extended Data Fig. 4 | Fuzzy sets for social equity and environmental sustainability criteria. These are visual representations of the fuzzy sets for each indicator, including set shapes and thresholds, corresponding names, and indicator ranges.

. 2018. Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming. Global Change Biology 24: e671-e691. https://doi.org/10. 1111/gcb.13989 Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming Jorge G. Álvarez-Romero AbstractMarine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we propose a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity.

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