The 2012 Brazilian Forest Code governs the fate of forests and savannas on Brazil's 394 Mha of privately owned lands. The government claims that a new national land registry (SICAR), introduced under the revised law, could end illegal deforestation by greatly reducing the cost of monitoring, enforcement, and compliance. This study evaluates that potential, using data from state-level land registries (CAR) in Pará and Mato Grosso that were precursors of SICAR. Using geospatial analyses and stakeholder interviews, we quantify the impact of CAR on deforestation and forest restoration, investigating how landowners adjust their behaviors over time. Our results indicate rapid adoption of CAR, with registered properties covering a total of 57 Mha by 2013. This suggests that the financial incentives to join CAR currently exceed the costs. Registered properties initially showed lower deforestation rates than unregistered ones, but these differences varied by property size and diminished over time. Moreover, only 6% of registered producers reported taking steps to restore illegally cleared areas on their properties. Our results suggest that, from the landowner's perspective, full compliance with the Forest Code offers few economic benefits. Achieving zero illegal deforestation in this context would require the private sector to include full compliance as a market criterion, while state and federal governments develop SICAR as a de facto enforcement mechanism. These results are relevant to other tropical countries and underscore the importance of developing a policy mix that creates lasting incentives for sustainable land-use practices.deforestation | Forest Code | tropical forests | governance | Amazon

Disease cluster detection and evaluation have commonly used spatial statistics methods that scan the map with a fixed circular window to locate candidate clusters. Recently, there has been interest in searching for clusters with arbitrary shape. The circular scan test retains high power of detecting a cluster, but does not necessarily identify the exact regions contained in a non-circular cluster particularly well. We propose, implement and evaluate a new procedure that is fast and produces clusters estimates of arbitrary shape in a rich class of possible cluster candidates. We showed that our methods contain the so-called upper level set method as a particular case. We present a power study of our method and, among other results, the main conclusion is that the likelihood-based arbitrarily shaped scan method is not appropriate to find a cluster estimate. When the parameter space includes the set of all possible spatial clusters in a map, a large and discrete parameter space, maximum likely cluster estimates tend to overestimate the true cluster by a large extent. This calls for a new approach different from the maximum likelihood method for this important public health problem.

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Plasmodium vivax relapse is one of the major causes of sustained global malaria transmission. Primaquine (PQ) is the only commercial drug available to prevent relapses, and its efficacy is dependent on metabolic activation by cytochrome P450 2D6 (CYP2D6). Impaired CYP2D6 function, caused by allelic polymorphisms, leads to the therapeutic failure of PQ as a radical cure for P. vivax malaria. Here, we hypothesized that the host immune response to malaria parasites modulates susceptibility to P. vivax recurrences in association with CYP2D6 activity. We performed a 10-year retrospective study by genotyping CYP2D6 polymorphisms in 261 malaria-exposed individuals from the Brazilian Amazon. The immune responses against a panel of P. vivax blood-stage antigens were evaluated by serological assays. We confirmed our previous findings, which indicated an association between impaired CYP2D6 activity and a higher risk of multiple episodes of P. vivax recurrence (risk ratio, 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2 to 2.6; P = 0.0035). An important finding was a reduction of 3% in the risk of recurrence (risk ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.96 to 0.98; P < 0.0001) per year of malaria exposure, which was observed for individuals with both reduced and normal CYP2D6 activity. Accordingly, subjects with long-term malaria exposure and persistent antibody responses to various antigens showed fewer episodes of malaria recurrence. Our findings have direct implications for malaria control, since it was shown that nonimmune individuals who do not respond adequately to treatment due to reduced CYP2D6 activity may present a significant challenge for sustainable progress toward P. vivax malaria elimination.

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