This paper tests empirically the linkage between banks' investment and interbank lending decisions in response to interest rate changes. We draw conclusions for the monetary policy, which uses the interest rate as its main tool. Across European countries we find that the risk-free (i.e. monetary policy) interest rate negatively affects the liquidity retained by banks and the decision of a bank to be a lender in the interbank market. Instead, the interbank interest rate has a positive impact on these decisions. We also find that banks who lend show less risk-taking behaviour and tend to be smaller than those who are borrowers. Most importantly, the risk-free interest rate is positively correlated with loans investment and bank risk-taking behaviour.(J.E.L.: E4, E5, E61, G18, G21).
This paper studies the quantitative impact of microprudential bank regulations on bank lending and value metrics of e ciency and welfare in a dynamic model of banks that are financed by debt and equity, undertake maturity transformation, are exposed to credit and liquidity risks, and face financing frictions. We show that: (a) there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship between bank lending, welfare, and capital requirements; (b) liquidity requirements unambiguously reduce lending, e ciency and welfare; and (c) resolution policies contingent on observed capital, such as prompt corrective action, dominate in e ciency and welfare terms (non-contingent) capital and liquidity requirements.
This paper presents an early warning system as a set of multi-period forecasts of indicators of tail real and financial risks obtained using a large database of monthly US data for the period 1972:1-2014:12. Pseudo-real-time forecasts are generated from: (a) sets of autoregressive and factor-augmented vector autoregressions (VARs), and (b) sets of autoregressive and factor-augmented quantile projections. Our key finding is that forecasts obtained with AR and factor-augmented VAR forecasts significantly underestimate tail risks, while quantile projections deliver fairly accurate forecasts and reliable early warning signals for tail real and financial risks up to a 1-year horizon
This paper presents a modeling framework that delivers joint forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk, as well as stress-tests of these indicators as impulse responses to structural shocks identified by standard macroeconomic and banking theory. This framework is implemented using large sets of quarterly time series of indicators of financial and real activity for the G-7 economies for the 1980Q1-2009Q3 period. We obtain two main results. First, there is evidence of out-of sample forecasting power for tail risk realizations of real activity for several countries, suggesting the usefulness of the model as a risk monitoring tool. Second, in all countries aggregate demand shocks are the main drivers of the real cycle, and bank credit demand shocks are the main drivers of the bank lending cycle. These results challenge the common wisdom that constraints in the aggregate supply of credit have been a key driver of the sharp downturn in real activity experienced by the G-7 economies in 2008Q4-2009Q1.
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