As an extension of (Progress in industrial mathematics at ECMI 2018, pp. 469-475, 2019), this paper is concerned with a new mathematical model for intraday electricity trading involving both renewable and conventional generation. The model allows to incorporate market data e.g. for half-spread and immediate price impact. The optimal trading and generation strategy of an agent is derived as the viscosity solution of a second-order Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation for which no closed-form solution can be given. We construct a numerical approximation allowing us to use continuous input data. Numerical results for a portfolio consisting of three conventional units and wind power are provided.
This paper investigates the intraday electricity pricing of 15-min. contracts in night hours. We tailor a recently introduced econometric model with fundamental impacts, which is successful in describing the pricing of day contracts. Our estimation results show that the mean reversion and the positive price impact of neighboring contracts are generic features of the price formation process on the intraday market, independent of the time of day. Intraday auction prices have higher explanatory power for the pricing of night than day contracts, particularly, for the first and last 15-min. contract in a night hour. Intradaily updated forecasts of wind power infeed are the only significant fundamental factors for intraday electricity prices at night. Neither expected conventional capacities nor the slope of the merit order curve contribute to explaining price dynamics. Overall, we conclude that fundamentals lose in importance in night hours and the 15-min. intraday market is rather driven by price information.
This paper develops an econometric price model with fundamental impacts for intraday electricity markets of 15-min contracts. A unique dataset of intradaily updated forecasts of renewable power generation is analysed. We use a threshold regression model to examine how 15-min intraday trading depends on the slope of the merit order curve. Our estimation results reveal strong evidence of mean reversion in the price formation mechanism of 15-min contracts. Additionally, prices of neighbouring contracts exhibit strong explanatory power and a positive impact on prices of a given contract. We observe an asymmetric effect of renewable forecast changes on intraday prices depending on the merit-order-curve slope. In general, renewable forecasts have a higher explanatory power at noon than in the morning and evening, but price information is the main driver of 15-min intraday trading.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘The mathematics of energy systems’.
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