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Abstract. In this paper we examine the length of political tenure in Canadian federally elected parliamentary governments since 1867. Using annual data on tenure length, we categorize the distribution of governing tenures in terms of a hazard function: the probability that an election will arise in each year, given that an election has not yet been called. Structuring the election call as an optimal stopping rule, we test whether that distribution responds predictably to characteristics of the political and/or economic environment. The results of using the continuous Cox and Gompertz models together with the discrete semi-parametric proportional hazard model suggest that governing parties in Canada do engage in election timing and that the only economic policy measure that is used consistently in conjunction with election timing is fiscal expenditure.Résumé. Dans cet ouvrage, nous examinons la durée d'un régime parlementaire canadien depuis la Confédération de 1867. Nous utilisons des données annuelles et nous représentons la distribution de durée de vie d'un gouvernement par une fonction de hazard, c'est-a-dire, la probabilité qu'une élection soit déclenchée durant une année spécifique étant donné qu'elle ne l'a pas encore été jusqu'à présent. Nous modélisons un déclenchement d'élection par une règle d'arrêt optimal el nous testons si la distribution dépend des caractéristiques de l'environnement politique et économique tel que prédit selon la théorie. Nous résultats basés les modèles de hazard proportionnel continu de type Cox et Gompertz et discret semi-paramétrique révèlent que les partis fédéraux au pouvoir au Canada choisissent le moment opportun pour déclencher une élection. De plus, les dépenses fiscales sont la seule variable de politique économique qui y soit systématiquement relié.

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Firm shutdown creates a turbulent situation for workers as it leads directly to layoffs for its workers. An additional consideration is whether a firm's shutdown within an industry creates turbulence for workers at other continuing firms. Using data drawn from the Longitudinal Worker File, a Canadian firm-worker matched employment database, we investigate the impact of industry shutdown rates on workers at continuing firm. This paper exploits variation in shutdown rates across industries and within an industry over time to explain the rate of permanent layoffs and the growth of workers' earnings. We find an increase in industry shutdown rates increases the probability of permanent layoffs and decreases earnings growth for workers at continuing firms. JEL Classification: J24, J31, J63, C35

This paper contributes to the existing literature on dating currency crisis in three ways. First, we combine the Monte Carlo simulation with a modified Hill's estimator method to obtain more robust results and efficiently deal with bias variance tradeoff in identifying extreme values. Second, we propose a systematic way to choose the reference country in building the Exchange Market Pressure index rather than arbitrary or descriptive reasoning. Third, different data frequencies are applied and the results are evaluated. Our finding suggests that higher frequency data are more appropriate while applying Extreme Value Theory. It urges researchers to be more cautious in applying EVT and interpreting tail incidences that are obtained from lower frequency data.