Background Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 beyond 6 months remains incompletely understood. We aimed to investigate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination against the risk of infection, hospitalisation, and death during the first 9 months after vaccination for the total population of Sweden. Methods This retrospective, total population cohort study was done using data from Swedish nationwide registers. The cohort comprised all individuals vaccinated with two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, mRNA-1273, or BNT162b2, and matched unvaccinated individuals, with data on vaccinations and infections updated until Oct 4, 2021. Two outcomes were evaluated. The first was SARS-CoV-2 infection of any severity from Jan 12 to Oct 4, 2021. The second was severe COVID-19, defined as hospitalisation for COVID-19 or all-cause 30-day mortality after confirmed infection, from March 15 to Sept 28, 2021. Findings Between Dec 28, 2020, and Oct 4, 2021, 842 974 individuals were fully vaccinated (two doses), and were matched (1:1) to an equal number of unvaccinated individuals (total study cohort n=1 685 948). For the outcome SARS-CoV-2 infection of any severity, the vaccine effectiveness of BNT162b2 waned progressively over time, from 92% (95% CI 92 to 93; p<0·001) at 15–30 days, to 47% (39 to 55; p<0·001) at 121–180 days, and to 23% (−2 to 41; p=0·07) from day 211 onwards. Waning was slightly slower for mRNA-1273, with a vaccine effectiveness of 96% (94 to 97; p<0·001) at 15–30 days and 59% (18 to 79; p=0·012) from day 181 onwards. Waning was also slightly slower for heterologous ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 plus an mRNA vaccine, for which vaccine effectiveness was 89% (79 to 94; p<0·001) at 15–30 days and 66% (41 to 80; p<0·001) from day 121 onwards. By contrast, vaccine effectiveness for homologous ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine was 68% (52 to 79; p<0·001) at 15–30 days, with no detectable effectiveness from day 121 onwards (−19% [–98 to 28]; p=0·49). For the outcome of severe COVID-19, vaccine effectiveness waned from 89% (82 to 93; p<0·001) at 15–30 days to 64% (44 to 77; p<0·001) from day 121 onwards. Overall, there was some evidence for lower vaccine effectiveness in men than in women and in older individuals than in younger individuals. Interpretation We found progressively waning vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection of any severity across all subgroups, but the rate of waning differed according to vaccine type. With respect to severe COVID-19, vaccine effectiveness seemed to be better maintained, although some waning became evident after 4 months. The results strengthen the evidence-based rationale for administration of a third vaccine dose as a booster. Funding None.

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We conducted a nationwide, registry-based study to investigate the importance of 34 potential risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnosis, hospitalization (with or without intensive care unit [ICU] admission), and subsequent all-cause mortality. The study population comprised all COVID-19 cases confirmed in Sweden by mid-September 2020 (68,575 non-hospitalized, 2494 ICU hospitalized, and 13,589 non-ICU hospitalized) and 434,081 randomly sampled general-population controls. Older age was the strongest risk factor for hospitalization, although the odds of ICU hospitalization decreased after 60–69 years and, after controlling for other risk factors, the odds of non-ICU hospitalization showed no trend after 40–49 years. Residence in a long-term care facility was associated with non-ICU hospitalization. Male sex and the presence of at least one investigated comorbidity or prescription medication were associated with both ICU and non-ICU hospitalization. Three comorbidities associated with both ICU and non-ICU hospitalization were asthma, hypertension, and Down syndrome. History of cancer was not associated with COVID-19 hospitalization, but cancer in the past year was associated with non-ICU hospitalization, after controlling for other risk factors. Cardiovascular disease was weakly associated with non-ICU hospitalization for COVID-19, but not with ICU hospitalization, after adjustment for other risk factors. Excess mortality was observed in both hospitalized and non-hospitalized COVID-19 cases. These results confirm that severe COVID-19 is related to age, sex, and comorbidity in general. The study provides new evidence that hypertension, asthma, Down syndrome, and residence in a long-term care facility are associated with severe COVID-19.

Objective To study the associations of objectively measured physical activity (PA) and sedentary time (ST) with the combined outcome of incident stroke, myocardial infarction (MI) or all-cause mortality in older adults. Methods N = 3343 men and women aged 70 who participated in a health survey between 2012 and 2017 were included. Actigraph GT3X+ accelerometers were used to measure light-intensity PA (LPA), moderate-intensity PA (MPA) and ST for 1 week. Incident cases of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in terms of stroke or MI, and all-cause mortality were identified using national registers. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regressions. Results During a mean follow-up of 2.7 years (0.1–5.6), there were 124 events of CVD or all-cause mortality. After adjusting for potential confounders and mediators, every 30-min/day increment in LPA was associated with 11% lower risk of CVD or all-cause mortality (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82–0.97), and every 30-min/day increment in MPA was associated with 36% lower risk (HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.48–0.84). Every 1-h/day increment in ST increased the risk of the outcomes by 33% (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.14–1.56), although there was no significant association among participants who performed ≥ 30 min/day MPA (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.82–1.50, P = 0.034 for interaction). None of the associations were modified by sex (P > 0.4 for all). Conclusion Objectively measured LPA and MPA are each associated with lower risk of stroke, MI or all-cause mortality in 70-year-old individuals, while ST is associated with increased risk. The greatest risk reduction is observed for MPA, which also appears to attenuate some of the increased risks associated with ST.

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