The correct localisation of transcription factors is vitally important for the proper functioning of many intracellular signalling pathways. Experimental data has shown that many pathways exhibit oscillations in concentrations of the substances involved, both temporally and spatially. Negative feedback loops are important components of these oscillations, providing fine regulation for the factors involved. In this paper we consider mathematical models of two such pathways -Hes1 and p53-Mdm2.Building on previous mathematical modelling approaches, we derive systems of partial differential equations to capture the evolution in space and time of the variables in the Hes1 and p53-Mdm2 systems. Through computational simulations we show that our reaction-diffusion models are able to produce sustained oscillations both spatially and temporally, accurately reflecting experimental evidence and advancing previous models. The simulations of our models also allow us to calculate a diffusion coefficient range for the variables in each mRNA and protein system, as well as ranges for other key parameters of the models, where sustained oscillations are observed. Finally, by exploiting the explicitly spatial nature of the partial differential equations, we are also able to manipulate mathematically the spatial location of the ribosomes, thus controlling where the proteins are synthesized within the cytoplasm. The results of these simulations predict an optimal distance outside the nucleus where protein synthesis should take place in order to generate sustained oscillations. Preprint submitted to Journal of Theoretical BiologyDecember 8, 2010 Using partial differential equation models, new information can be gained about the precise spatio-temporal dynamics of mRNA and proteins. The ability to determine spatial localisation of proteins within the cell is likely to yield fresh insight into a range of cellular diseases such as diabetes and cancer.

Individual mouse embryonic stem cells have been found to exhibit highly variable differentiation responses under the same environmental conditions. The noisy cyclic expression of Hes1 and its downstream genes are known to be responsible for this, but the mechanism underlying this variability in expression is not well understood. In this paper, we show that the observed experimental data and diverse differentiation responses can be explained by a spatial stochastic model of the Hes1 gene regulatory network. We also propose experiments to control the precise differentiation response using drug treatment.

There are many intracellular signalling pathways where the spatial distribution of the molecular species cannot be neglected. These pathways often contain negative feedback loops and can exhibit oscillatory dynamics in space and time. Two such pathways are those involving Hes1 and p53-Mdm2, both of which are implicated in cancer. In this paper we further develop the partial differential equation (PDE) models of Sturrock et al. (J. Theor. Biol., 273:15-31, 2011) which were used to study these dynamics. We extend these PDE models by including a nuclear membrane and active transport, assuming that proteins are convected in the cytoplasm towards the nucleus in order to model transport along microtubules. We also account for Mdm2 inhibition of p53 transcriptional activity. Through numerical simulations we find ranges of values for the model parameters such that sustained oscillatory dynamics occur, consistent with available experimental measurements. We also find that our model extensions act to broaden the parameter ranges that yield oscillations. Hence oscillatory behaviour is made more robust by the inclusion of both the nuclear membrane and active transport. In order to bridge the gap between in vivo and in silico experiments, we investigate more realistic cell geometries by using an imported image of a real cell as our computational domain. For the extended p53-Mdm2 model, we consider the effect of microtubule-disrupting drugs and proteasome inhibitor drugs, obtaining results that are in agreement with experimental studies.

Hes1 is a member of the family of basic helix-loop-helix transcription factors and the Hes1 gene regulatory network (GRN) may be described as the canonical example of transcriptional control in eukaryotic cells, since it involves only the Hes1 protein and its own mRNA. Recently, the Hes1 protein has been established as an excellent target for an anti-cancer drug treatment, with the design of a small molecule Hes1 dimerisation inhibitor representing a promising if challenging approach to therapy. In this paper, we extend a previous spatial stochastic model of the Hes1 GRN to include nuclear transport and dimerisation of Hes1 monomers. Initially, we assume that dimerisation occurs only in the cytoplasm, with only dimers being imported into the nucleus. Stochastic simulations of this novel model using the URDME software show that oscillatory dynamics in agreement with experimental studies are retained. Furthermore, we find that our model is robust to changes in the nuclear transport and dimerisation parameters. However, since the precise dynamics of the nuclear import of Hes1 and the localisation of the dimerisation reaction are not known, we consider a second modelling scenario in which we allow for both Hes1 monomers and dimers to be imported into the nucleus, and we allow dimerisation of Hes1 to occur everywhere in the cell. Once again, computational solutions of this second model produce oscillatory dynamics in agreement with experimental studies. We also explore sensitivity of the numerical solutions to nuclear transport and dimerisation parameters. Finally, we compare and contrast the two different modelling scenarios using numerical experiments that simulate dimer disruption, and suggest a biological experiment that could distinguish which model more faithfully captures the Hes1 GRN.

Gene regulatory networks, i.e. DNA segments in a cell which interact with each other indirectly through their RNA and protein products, lie at the heart of many important intracellular signal transduction processes. In this paper, we analyze a mathematical model of a canonical gene regulatory network consisting of a single negative feedback loop between a protein and its mRNA (e.g. the Hes1 transcription factor system). The model consists of two partial differential equations describing the spatio-temporal interactions between the protein and its mRNA in a one-dimensional domain. Such intracellular negative feedback systems are known to exhibit oscillatory behavior and this is the case for our model, shown initially via computational simulations. In order to investigate this behavior more deeply, we undertake a linearized stability analysis of the steady states of the model. Our results show that the diffusion coefficient of the protein/mRNA acts as a bifurcation parameter and gives rise to a Hopf bifurcation. This shows that the spatial movement of the mRNA and protein molecules alone is sufficient to cause the oscillations. Our result has implications for transcription factors such as p53, NF-κB and heat shock proteins which are involved in regulating important cellular processes such as inflammation, meiosis, apoptosis and the heat shock response, and are linked to diseases such as arthritis and cancer.

In the vertebrate embryo, tissue blocks called somites are laid down in head-to-tail succession, a process known as somitogenesis. Research into somitogenesis has been both experimental and mathematical. For zebrafish, there is experimental evidence for oscillatory gene expression in cells in the presomitic mesoderm (PSM) as well as evidence that Notch signalling synchronises the oscillations in neighbouring PSM cells. A biological mechanism has previously been proposed to explain these phenomena. Here we have converted this mechanism into a mathematical model of partial differential equations in which the nuclear and cytoplasmic diffusion of protein and mRNA molecules is explictly considered. By performing simulations, we have found ranges of values for the model parameters (such as diffusion and degradation rates) that yield oscillatory dynamics within PSM cells and that enable Notch signalling to synchronise the oscillations in two touching cells. Our model contains a Hill coefficient that measures the co-operativity between two proteins (Her1, Her7) and three genes (her1, her7, deltaC) which they inhibit. This coefficient appears to be bounded below by the requirement for oscillations in individual cells and bounded above by the requirement for synchronisation. Consistent with experimental data and a previous spatially non-explicit mathematical model, we have found that signalling can increase the average level of Her1 protein. Biological pattern formation would be impossible without a certain robustness to variety in cell shape and size; our results possess such robustness. Our spatially-explicit modelling approach, together with new imaging technologies that can measure intracellular protein diffusion rates, is likely to yield significant new insight into somitogenesis and other biological processes.

Gene expression is an inherently noisy process. This noise is generally thought to be deleterious as precise internal regulation of biochemical reactions is essential for cell growth and survival. Selfrepression of gene expression, which is the simplest form of a negative feedback loop, is commonly believed to be employed by cellular systems to decrease the stochastic fluctuations in gene expression. When there is some delay in autoregulation, it is also believed that this system can generate oscillations. In eukaryotic cells, mRNAs that are synthesised in the nucleus must be exported to the cytoplasm to function in protein synthesis, whereas proteins must be transported into the nucleus from the cytoplasm to regulate the expression levels of genes. Nuclear transport thus plays a critical role in eukaryotic gene expression and regulation. Some recent studies have suggested that nuclear retention of mRNAs can control noise in mRNA expression. However, the effect of nuclear transport on protein noise and its interplay with negative feedback regulation is not completely understood. In this paper, we systematically compare four different simple models of gene expression. By using simulations and applying the linear noise approximation to the corresponding chemical master equations, we investigate the influence of nuclear import and export on noise in gene expression in a negative autoregulatory feedback loop. We first present results consistent with the literature, i.e., that negative feedback can effectively buffer the variability in protein levels, and nuclear retention can decrease mRNA noise levels. Interestingly we find that when negative feedback is combined with nuclear retention, an amplification in gene expression noise can be observed and is dependant on nuclear translocation rates. Finally, we investigate the effect of nuclear compartmentalisation on the ability of self-repressing genes to exhibit stochastic oscillatory dynamics.

The modelling of many real-world problems relies on computationally heavy simulations of randomly interacting individuals or agents. However, the values of the parameters that underlie the interactions between agents are typically poorly known, and hence they need to be inferred from macroscopic observations of the system. Since statistical inference rests on repeated simulations to sample the parameter space, the high computational expense of these simulations can become a stumbling block. In this paper, we compare two ways to mitigate this issue in a Bayesian setting through the use of machine learning methods: One approach is to construct lightweight surrogate models to substitute the simulations used in inference. Alternatively, one might altogether circumvent the need for Bayesian sampling schemes and directly estimate the posterior distribution. We focus on stochastic simulations that track autonomous agents and present two case studies: tumour growths and the spread of infectious diseases. We demonstrate that good accuracy in inference can be achieved with a relatively small number of simulations, making our machine learning approaches orders of magnitude faster than classical simulation-based methods that rely on sampling the parameter space. However, we find that while some methods generally produce more robust results than others, no algorithm offers a one-size-fits-all solution when attempting to infer model parameters from observations. Instead, one must choose the inference technique with the specific real-world application in mind. The stochastic nature of the considered real-world phenomena poses an additional challenge that can become insurmountable for some approaches. Overall, we find machine learning approaches that create direct inference machines to be promising for real-world applications. We present our findings as general guidelines for modelling practitioners.