It is generally perceived that biodiversity is better protected from human activities after an area is designated as a protected area. However, we found that this common perception was not true in Wolong Nature Reserve (southwestern China), which was established in 1975 as a "flagship" protected area for the world-renowned endangered giant pandas. Analyses of remote sensing data from pre- and post-establishment periods indicate that the reserve has become more fragmented and less suitable for giant panda habitation. The rate of loss of high-quality habitat after the reserve's establishment was much higher than before the reserve was created, and the fragmentation of high-quality habitat became far more severe. After the creation of the reserve, rates of habitat loss and fragmentation inside the reserve unexpectedly increased to levels that were similar to or higher than those outside the reserve, in contrast to the situation before the reserve was created.

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Traditional approaches to studying human-environment interactions often ignore individual-level information, do not account for complexities, or fail to integrate cross-scale or cross-discipline data and methods, thus, in many situations, resulting in a great loss in predictive or explanatory power. This article reports on the development, implementation, validation, and results of an agent-based spatial model that addresses such issues. Using data from Wolong Nature Reserve for giant pandas (China), the model simulates the impact of the growing rural population on the forests and panda habitat. The households in Wolong follow a traditional rural lifestyle, in which fuelwood consumption has been shown to cause panda habitat degradation. By tracking the life history of individual persons and the dynamics of households, this model equips household agents with ''knowledge'' about themselves, other agents, and the environment and allows individual agents to interact with each other and the environment through their activities in accordance with a set of artificial-intelligence rules. The households and environment coevolve over time and space, resulting in macroscopic human and habitat dynamics. The results from the model may have value for understanding the roles of socioeconomic and demographic factors, for identifying particular areas of special concern, and for conservation policy making. In addition to the specific results of the study, the general approach described here may provide researchers with a useful general framework to capture complex human-environment interactions, to incorporate individual-level information, and to help integrate multidisciplinary research efforts, theories, data, and methods across varying spatial and temporal scales.

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a b s t r a c tProtected areas worldwide are facing increasing pressures to co-manage human development and biodiversity conservation. One strategy for managing multiple uses within and around protected areas is zoning, an approach in which spatial boundaries are drawn to distinguish areas with varying degrees of allowable human impacts. However, zoning designations are rarely evaluated for their efficacy using empirical data related to both human and biodiversity characteristics. To evaluate the effectiveness of zoning designations, we developed an integrated approach. The approach was calibrated empirically using data from Wolong Nature Reserve, a flagship protected area for the conservation of endangered giant pandas in China. We analyzed the spatial distribution of pandas, as well as human impacts (roads, houses, tourism infrastructure, livestock, and forest cover change) with respect to zoning designations in Wolong. Results show that the design of the zoning scheme could be improved to account for pandas and their habitat, considering the amount of suitable habitat outside of the core zone (area designated for biodiversity conservation). Zoning was largely successful in containing houses and roads to their designated experimental zone, but was less effective in containing livestock and was susceptible to boundary adjustments to allow for tourism development. We identified focus areas for potential zoning revision that could better protect the panda population without significantly compromising existing human settlements. Our findings highlight the need for evaluating the efficacy of zoning in other protected areas facing similar challenges with balancing human needs and conservation goals, not only in China but also around the world.

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