Abstract. We quantify the reductions in primary emissions due to the COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe. Our estimates are provided in the form of a dataset of reduction factors varying per country and day that will allow the modelling and identification of the associated impacts upon air quality. The country- and daily-resolved reduction factors are provided for each of the following source categories: energy industry (power plants), manufacturing industry, road traffic and aviation (landing and take-off cycle). We computed the reduction factors based on open-access and near-real-time measured activity data from a wide range of information sources. We also trained a machine learning model with meteorological data to derive weather-normalized electricity consumption reductions. The time period covered is from 21 February, when the first European localized lockdown was implemented in the region of Lombardy (Italy), until 26 April 2020. This period includes 5 weeks (23 March until 26 April) with the most severe and relatively unchanged restrictions upon mobility and socio-economic activities across Europe. The computed reduction factors were combined with the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service's European emission inventory using adjusted temporal emission profiles in order to derive time-resolved emission reductions per country and pollutant sector. During the most severe lockdown period, we estimate the average emission reductions to be −33 % for NOx, −8 % for non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), −7 % for SOx and −7 % for PM2.5 at the EU-30 level (EU-28 plus Norway and Switzerland). For all pollutants more than 85 % of the total reduction is attributable to road transport, except SOx. The reductions reached −50 % (NOx), −14 % (NMVOCs), −12 % (SOx) and −15 % (PM2.5) in countries where the lockdown restrictions were more severe such as Italy, France or Spain. To show the potential for air quality modelling, we simulated and evaluated NO2 concentration decreases in rural and urban background regions across Europe (Italy, Spain, France, Germany, United-Kingdom and Sweden). We found the lockdown measures to be responsible for NO2 reductions of up to −58 % at urban background locations (Madrid, Spain) and −44 % at rural background areas (France), with an average contribution of the traffic sector to total reductions of 86 % and 93 %, respectively. A clear improvement of the modelled results was found when considering the emission reduction factors, especially in Madrid, Paris and London where the bias is reduced by more than 90 %. Future updates will include the extension of the COVID-19 lockdown period covered, the addition of other pollutant sectors potentially affected by the restrictions (commercial and residential combustion and shipping) and the evaluation of other air quality pollutants such as O3 and PM2.5. All the emission reduction factors are provided in the Supplement.

Abstract. The spread of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that causes COVID-19 forced the Spanish Government to implement extensive lockdown measures to reduce the number of hospital admissions, starting on 14 March 2020. Over the following days and weeks, strong reductions in nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution were reported in many regions of Spain. A substantial part of these reductions was obviously due to decreased local and regional anthropogenic emissions. Yet, the confounding effect of meteorological variability hinders a reliable quantification of the lockdown's impact upon the observed pollution levels. Our study uses machine-learning (ML) models fed by meteorological data along with other time features to estimate the “business-as-usual” NO2 mixing ratios that would have been observed in the absence of the lockdown. We then quantify the so-called meteorology-normalized NO2 reductions induced by the lockdown measures by comparing the estimated business-as-usual values with the observed NO2 mixing ratios. We applied this analysis for a selection of urban background and traffic stations covering the more than 50 Spanish provinces and islands. The ML predictive models were found to perform remarkably well in most locations, with an overall bias, root mean square error and correlation of +4 %, 29 % and 0.86, respectively. During the period of study, from the enforcement of the state of alarm in Spain on 14 March to 23 April, we found the lockdown measures to be responsible for a 50 % reduction in NO2 levels on average over all provinces and islands. The lockdown in Spain has gone through several phases with different levels of severity with respect to mobility restrictions. As expected, the meteorology-normalized change in NO2 was found to be stronger during phase II (the most stringent phase) and phase III of the lockdown than during phase I. In the largest agglomerations, where both urban background and traffic stations were available, a stronger meteorology-normalized NO2 change is highlighted at traffic stations compared with urban background sites. Our results are consistent with foreseen (although still uncertain) changes in anthropogenic emissions induced by the lockdown. We also show the importance of taking the meteorological variability into account for accurately assessing the impact of the lockdown on NO2 levels, in particular at fine spatial and temporal scales. Meteorology-normalized estimates such as those presented here are crucial to reliably quantify the health implications of the lockdown due to reduced air pollution.

No abstract

Abstract. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of NO2 changes across the main European urban areas induced by COVID-19 lockdowns using satellite retrievals from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel-5p satellite, surface site measurements, and simulations from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) regional ensemble of air quality models. Some recent TROPOMI-based estimates of changes in atmospheric NO2 concentrations have neglected the influence of weather variability between the reference and lockdown periods. Here we provide weather-normalized estimates based on a machine learning method (gradient boosting) along with an assessment of the biases that can be expected from methods that omit the influence of weather. We also compare the weather-normalized satellite-estimated NO2 column changes with weather-normalized surface NO2 concentration changes and the CAMS regional ensemble, composed of 11 models, using recently published estimates of emission reductions induced by the lockdown. All estimates show similar NO2 reductions. Locations where the lockdown measures were stricter show stronger reductions, and, conversely, locations where softer measures were implemented show milder reductions in NO2 pollution levels. Average reduction estimates based on either satellite observations (−23 %), surface stations (−43 %), or models (−32 %) are presented, showing the importance of vertical sampling but also the horizontal representativeness. Surface station estimates are significantly changed when sampled to the TROPOMI overpasses (−37 %), pointing out the importance of the variability in time of such estimates. Observation-based machine learning estimates show a stronger temporal variability than model-based estimates.

Abstract. The spread of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) forced the Spanish Government to implement extensive lockdown measures to reduce the number of hospital admissions, starting on March 14th 2020. Over the following days and weeks, strong reductions of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution were reported in many regions of Spain. A substantial part of these reductions is obviously due to decreased local and regional anthropogenic emissions. Yet, the confounding effect of meteorological variability hinders a reliable quantification of the lockdown impact upon the observed pollution levels. Our study uses machine learning (ML) models fed by meteorological data along with other time features to estimate the business-as-usual NO2 mixing ratios that would have been observed in the absence of the lockdown. We then quantify the so-called meteorology-normalized NO2 reductions induced by the lockdown measures by comparing the business-as-usual with the actually observed NO2 mixing ratios. We applied this analysis for a selection of urban background and traffic stations covering the more than 50 Spanish provinces and islands. The ML predictive models were found to perform remarkably well in most locations. During the period of study, going from the enforcement of the state of alarm in Spain on March 14th to April 23rd, we found the lockdown measures to be responsible for a 50 % reduction of NO2 levels on average over all provinces and islands. The lockdown in Spain has gone through several phases with different levels of severity in the mobility restrictions. As expected the meteorology-normalized change of NO2 was found to be stronger during the phases II (the most stringent one) and III than during phase I. In the largest agglomerations where both urban background and traffic stations were available, a stronger meteorology-normalized NO2 change is highlighted at traffic stations compared to urban background ones. Our results are consistent with foreseen (although still uncertain) changes in anthropogenic emissions induced by the lockdown. We also show the importance of taking into account meteorological variability for accurately assessing the impact of the lockdown on NO2 levels, in particular at fine spatial and temporal scales. Meteorology-normalized estimates such as the ones presented here are crucial to reliably quantify the health implications of the lockdown due to reduced air pollution.