Most temperate forests are accumulating carbon (C) and may continue to do so in the near future. However, the situation may be different in water-limited ecosystems, where the potentially positive effects of C and N fertilization and rising temperatures interact with water availability. In this study, we use the extensive network of plots of two consecutive Spanish national forest inventories to identify the factors that determine the spatial variation of the C stock change, growth, and mortality rate of forests in Peninsular Spain (below-and aboveground). We fitted general linear models to assess the response of C stock change and its components to the spatial variability of climate (in terms of water availability), forest structure (tree density and C stock), previous forest management, and the recent warming trend. Our results show that undisturbed forests in Peninsular Spain are accumulating C at a rate of~1.4 Mg C ha À1 yr À1 , and that forest structural variables are the main determinants of forest growth and C stock change. Water availability was positively related to growth and C accumulation. On the other hand, recent warming has reduced growth rate and C accumulation, especially in wet areas. Spatial variation in mortality (in terms of C loss) was mostly driven by differences in growth rate across plots, and was consistent with 'natural', self-thinning dynamics related to the recent abandonment of forest management over large areas of Spain, with the consequent increase in tree density and competition. Interestingly, the negative effect of warming on forest C accumulation disappears if only managed stands are considered, emphasizing the potential of forest management to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, the effect of forest management was weak and, in some cases, not significant, implying the need of further research on its impact.

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Aim Our study aimed to identify and explore the main factors that influence tree recruitment of multiple species at a regional scale across peninsular Spain, an understanding of which is essential for predicting future forest species composition in the face of ongoing environmental change. The study focused on the dynamics of the key transition phase from saplings to adult trees. Location The forests of peninsular Spain. Methods We used the extensive network of plots sampled in two consecutive Spanish national forest inventories (> 30,000 plots) to identify the factors that determine regeneration patterns of the 10 most abundant forest species of Spain at relatively large temporal (c. 10 years) and spatial scales (across Spain): five coniferous species of Pinus (pines) and five broadleaved species of the genera Fagus and Quercus. We fitted separate generalized linear models for the pine species and the broadleaved species to assess the response of sapling abundance and ingrowth rate to the spatial variability of climate (temperature, water availability and recent warming), forest structure (tree density, understorey and overstorey canopy cover, and basal area change) and disturbances (previous forest logging, wildfires and grazing). Results Mean sapling abundance was four times higher for broadleaved species than for pines, while mean annual ingrowth was twice as high. Sapling abundance and ingrowth rate were mainly determined by stand structure, both in pines and broadleaved trees. The direct effects of disturbances and climate were comparatively smaller, and there was no detectable effect of recent warming. Main conclusions The higher values of ingrowth rate of broadleaved species can be explained by their ability to maintain a higher sapling bank due to their greater shade tolerance. This differential response of pines and broadleaved species to canopy closure suggests a probable increase in broadleaved species at the expense of pines. This transition could occur earlier in stands with faster canopy closure dynamics. Spatially explicit, mixed‐species demographic models incorporating both the ingrowth and the tree mortality components are needed for predicting the composition of future forests.

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Over the past century, major shifts in the geographic distribution of tree species have occurred in response to changes in land use and climate. We analyse species distribution and abundance from about 33 000 forest inventory plots in Spain sampled twice over a period of 10-12 years. We show a dominance of range contraction (extinction), and demographic decline over range expansion (colonization), with seven of 11 species exhibiting extinction downhill of their distribution. Contrary to expectations, these dynamics are not always consistent with climate warming over the study period, but result from legacies in forest structure due to past land use change and fire occurrence. We find that these changes have led to the expansion of broadleaf species (i.e. family Fagaceae) over areas formerly dominated by conifer species (i.e. family Pinaceae), due to the greater capacity of the former to respond to most disturbances and their higher competitive ability. This recent and rapid transition from conifers to broadleaves has important implications in forest dynamics and ecosystem services they provide. The finding raises the question as to whether the increasing dominance of relatively drought-sensitive broadleaf species will diminish resilience of Mediterranean forests to very likely drier conditions in the future.

Tropical and subtropical areas present the vast majority of contemporary global fires. Despite the human origin of most of these fires, little is known of how environmental and socioeconomic variables contribute to the spatial patterns of fire incidence and burned areas. The tropical Mexican State of Chiapas represents a good case study to analyze these interactions, due to the availability of official data, and its similarities to other tropical countries, in terms of environmental and socioeconomic characteristics. This study evaluates the relative importance of human-related and environmental variables in determining the distribution of the number of fires and area burned in the tropical State of Chiapas in years of normal and extreme climatic conditions (non-El Niñ o vs. El Niñ o). We have searched for causal relationships among fire, environmental, and socioeconomic variables in Chiapas using path analysis.Results of this study show a major importance of environmental variables in non-El Niñ o years, suggesting that the status of the vegetation was the main cause determining fire ignition and fire spread in these years. Contrarily, the observed trends in the El Niño period indicate that fire trends were mainly determined by the presence of ignition agents. In these El Niñ o years, vegetation is so severely water stressed that, when fire starts, all vegetation types burn, regardless of their flammability properties. The main vegetation types affected by fire in non-El Niñ o years were the most flammable ones, such as pineoak communities, while rainforests burned the most in El Niñ o years. Altitude, pine-oak communities, and poverty levels played major roles in the arboreal fire incidence in non-El Niñ o years, whereas the distribution of pastures appeared as an important variable determining arboreal fire incidence in El Niñ o years. When all fires were considered (affecting any vegetation layer), almost identical trends were observed, with the incorporation of a new variable influencing the area burned: density of infrastructure. The results of this study strengthen the importance of El Niñ o years in the conservation of rainforest ecosystems and suggest the existence of synergistic effects involving fires, fragmentation, and certain elements of the landscape, such as cattle pastures, in tropical areas.

In Mediterranean ecosystems, large fires frequently burn under extreme meteorological conditions, but they are usually characterized by a spatial heterogeneity of burn severities. The way in which such mixed-severity fires are a result of fuels, topography and weather remains poorly understood. We computed fire severity of a large wildfire that occurred in Catalonia, Spain, as the difference between the post- and pre-fire Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values obtained through Landsat images. Fuel and topographic variables were derived from remote sensing, and fire behavior variables were obtained from an exhaustive reconstruction of the fire. Results showed that fire severity had a negative relationship with percentage of canopy cover, i.e. green surviving plots were mainly those with more forested conditions. Of the topographic variables, only aspect had a significant effect on fire severity, with higher values in southern than in northern slopes. Fire severity was higher in head than in flank and back fires. The interaction of these two variables was significant, with differences between southern and northern aspects being small for head fires, but increasing in flank and back fires. The role of these variables in determining the pattern of fire severities is of primary importance for interpreting the current landscapes and for establishing effective fire prevention and extinction policies.