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Understanding the determinants of population size and performance for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis mexicana) is critical to develop effective recovery and management strategies. In arid environments, plant communities and consequently herbivore populations are strongly dependent upon precipitation, which is highly variable seasonally and annually. We conducted a retrospective exploratory analysis of desert bighorn sheep population dynamics on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, 1941–1976, by modeling sheep population size as a function of previous population sizes and precipitation. Population size and trend of desert bighorn were best and well described (R2 = 0.89) by a model that included only total annual precipitation as a covariate. Models incorporating density‐dependence, delayed density‐dependence, and combinations of density and precipitation were less informative than the model containing precipitation alone (δAICc=8.5–22.5). Lamb:female ratios were positively related to precipitation (current year: F1,34=7.09, P=0.012; previous year: F1,33=3.37, P=0.075) but were unrelated to population size (current year: F1,34=0.04, P=0.843; previous year: F1,33=0.14, P=0.715). Instantaneous population rate of increase (r) was related to population size (F1,33=5.55; P=0.025). Precipitation limited populations of desert bighorn sheep on SANWR primarily in a density‐independent manner by affecting production or survival of lambs, likely through influences on forage quantity and quality. Habitat evaluations and recovery plans for desert bighorn sheep need to consider fundamental influences on desert bighorn populations such as precipitation and food, rather than focus solely on proximate issues such as security cover, predation, and disease. Moreover, the concept of carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep may need re‐evaluation in respect to highly variable (CV=35.6%) localized precipitation patterns. On SANWR carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep was zero when total annual precipitation was <28.2 cm.

BackgroundA key challenge for conservation biologists is to determine the most appropriate demographic and genetic management strategies for wildlife populations threatened by disease. We explored this topic by examining whether genetic background and previous pathogen exposure influenced survival of translocated animals when captive-bred and free-ranging bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) were used to re-establish a population that had been extirpated in the San Andres Mountains in New Mexico, USA.ResultsAlthough the free-ranging source population had significantly higher multi-locus heterozygosity at 30 microsatellite loci than the captive bred animals, neither source population nor genetic background significantly influenced survival or cause of death. The presence of antibodies to a respiratory virus known to cause pneumonia was associated with increased survival, but there was no correlation between genetic heterozygosity and the presence of antibodies to this virus.ConclusionsAlthough genetic theory predicts otherwise, increased heterozygosity was not associated with increased fitness (survival) among translocated animals. While heterosis or genetic rescue effects may occur in F1 and later generations as the two source populations interbreed, we conclude that previous pathogen exposure was a more important marker than genetic heterozygosity for predicting survival of translocated animals. Every wildlife translocation is an experiment, and whenever possible, translocations should be designed and evaluated to test hypotheses that will further improve our understanding of how pathogen exposure and genetic variability influence fitness.

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