BackgroundHypothyroidism is a frequent late side effect of radiation therapy of the cervical region. Purpose of this work is to develop multivariate normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models for radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RHT) and to compare them with already existing NTCP models for RHT.MethodsFifty-three patients treated with sequential chemo-radiotherapy for Hodgkin’s lymphoma (HL) were retrospectively reviewed for RHT events. Clinical information along with thyroid gland dose distribution parameters were collected and their correlation to RHT was analyzed by Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient (Rs). Multivariate logistic regression method using resampling methods (bootstrapping) was applied to select model order and parameters for NTCP modeling. Model performance was evaluated through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Models were tested against external published data on RHT and compared with other published NTCP models.ResultsIf we express the thyroid volume exceeding X Gy as a percentage (Vx(%)), a two-variable NTCP model including V30(%) and gender resulted to be the optimal predictive model for RHT (Rs = 0.615, p < 0.001. AUC = 0.87). Conversely, if absolute thyroid volume exceeding X Gy (Vx(cc)) was analyzed, an NTCP model based on 3 variables including V30(cc), thyroid gland volume and gender was selected as the most predictive model (Rs = 0.630, p < 0.001. AUC = 0.85). The three-variable model performs better when tested on an external cohort characterized by large inter-individuals variation in thyroid volumes (AUC = 0.914, 95% CI 0.760–0.984). A comparable performance was found between our model and that proposed in the literature based on thyroid gland mean dose and volume (p = 0.264).ConclusionsThe absolute volume of thyroid gland exceeding 30 Gy in combination with thyroid gland volume and gender provide an NTCP model for RHT with improved prediction capability not only within our patient population but also in an external cohort.

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Purpose To apply a voxel-based (VB) approach aimed at exploring local dose differences associated with late radiation-induced lung damage (RILD). Methods and Materials An interinstitutional database of 98 patients who were Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors treated with postchemotherapy supradiaphragmatic radiation therapy was analyzed in the study. Eighteen patients experienced late RILD, classified according to the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group scoring system. Each patient’s computed tomographic (CT) scan was normalized to a single reference case anatomy (common coordinate system, CCS) through a log-diffeomorphic approach. The obtained deformation fields were used to map the dose of each patient into the CCS. The coregistration robustness and the dose mapping accuracy were evaluated by geometric and dose scores. Two different statistical mapping schemes for nonparametric multiple permutation inference on dose maps were applied, and the corresponding P<.05 significance lung subregions were generated. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-based test was performed on the mean dose extracted from each subregion. Results The coregistration process resulted in a geometrically robust and accurate dose warping. A significantly higher dose was consistently delivered to RILD patients in voxel clusters near the peripheral medial-basal portion of the lungs. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) from the mean dose of the voxel clusters was higher than the corresponding AUC derived from the total lung mean dose. Conclusions We implemented a framework including a robust registration process and a VB approach accounting for the multiple comparison problem in dose-response modeling, and applied it to a cohort of HL survivors to explore a local dose–RILD relationship in the lungs. Patients with RILD received a significantly greater dose in parenchymal regions where low doses (~6 Gy) were delivered. Interestingly, the relation between differences in the high-dose range and RILD seems to lack a clear spatial signature.