Multiple sclerosis (OMIM 126200) is a common disease of the central nervous system in which the interplay between inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes typically results in intermittent neurological disturbance followed by progressive accumulation of disability.1 Epidemiological studies have shown that genetic factors are primarily responsible for the substantially increased frequency of the disease seen in the relatives of affected individuals;2,3 and systematic attempts to identify linkage in multiplex families have confirmed that variation within the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) exerts the greatest individual effect on risk.4 Modestly powered Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS)5-10 have enabled more than 20 additional risk loci to be identified and have shown that multiple variants exerting modest individual effects play a key role in disease susceptibility.11 Most of the genetic architecture underlying susceptibility to the disease remains to be defined and is anticipated to require the analysis of sample sizes that are beyond the numbers currently available to individual research groups. In a collaborative GWAS involving 9772 cases of European descent collected by 23 research groups working in 15 different countries, we have replicated almost all of the previously suggested associations and identified at least a further 29 novel susceptibility loci. Within the MHC we have refined the identity of the DRB1 risk alleles and confirmed that variation in the HLA-A gene underlies the independent protective effect attributable to the Class I region. Immunologically relevant genes are significantly over-represented amongst those mapping close to the identified loci and particularly implicate T helper cell differentiation in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis.

There is a long history of research into body fluid biomarkers in neurodegenerative and neuroinflammatory diseases. However, only a few biomarkers in CSF are being used in clinical practice. One of the most critical factors in CSF biomarker research is the inadequate powering of studies because of the lack of sufficient samples that can be obtained in single-center studies. Therefore, collaboration between investigators is needed to establish large biobanks of well-defined samples. Standardized protocols for biobanking are a prerequisite to ensure that the statistical power gained by increasing the numbers of CSF samples is not compromised by preanalytical factors. Here, a consensus report on recommendations for CSF collection and biobanking is presented, formed by the BioMS-eu network for CSF biomarker research in multiple sclerosis. We focus on CSF collection procedures, preanalytical factors, and high-quality clinical and paraclinical information. The biobanking protocols are applicable for CSF biobanks for research targeting any neurologic disease.

Natural history studies have identified factors that predict evolution to multiple sclerosis or risk of disability accumulation over time. Although these studies are based on large multicentre cohorts with long follow-ups, they have limitations such as lack of standardized protocols, a retrospective data collection or lack of a systematic magnetic resonance imaging acquisition and analysis protocol, often resulting in failure to take magnetic resonance and oligoclonal bands into account as joint covariates in the prediction models. To overcome some of these limitations, the aim of our study was to identify and stratify baseline demographic, clinical, radiological and biological characteristics that might predict multiple sclerosis development and disability accumulation using a multivariate approach based on a large prospective cohort of patients with clinically isolated syndromes. From 1995 to 2013, 1058 patients with clinically isolated syndromes were included. We evaluated the influence of baseline prognostic factors on the risk for developing clinically definite multiple sclerosis, McDonald multiple sclerosis, and disability accumulation (Expanded Disability Status Scale score of 3.0) based on univariate (hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals) and multivariate (adjusted hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals) Cox regression models. We ultimately included 1015 patients followed for a mean of 81 (standard deviation = 57) months. Female/male ratio was 2.1. Females exhibited a similar risk of conversion to multiple sclerosis and of disability accumulation compared to males. Each younger decade at onset was associated with a greater risk of conversion to multiple sclerosis and with a protective effect on disability. Patients with optic neuritis had a lower risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [hazard ratio 0.6 (0.5-0.8)] and disability progression [hazard ratio 0.5 (0.3-0.8)]; however, this protective effect remained marginal only for disability [adjusted hazard ratio 0.6 (0.4-1.0)] in adjusted models. The presence of oligoclonal bands increased the risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 1.3 (1.0-1.8)] and of disability [adjusted hazard ratio 2.0 (1.2-3.6)] independently of other factors. The presence of 10 or more brain lesions on magnetic resonance increased the risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 11.3 (6.7-19.3)] and disability [adjusted hazard ratio 2.9 (1.4-6.0)]. Disease-modifying treatment before the second attack reduced the risk of McDonald multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 0.6 (0.4-0.9)] and disability accumulation [adjusted hazard ratio 0.5 (0.3-0.9)]. We conclude that the demographic and topographic characteristics are low-impact prognostic factors, the presence of oligoclonal bands is a medium-impact prognostic factor, and the number of lesions on brain magnetic resonance is a high-impact prognostic factor.

In most patients with multiple sclerosis, the disease initiates with a first attack or clinically isolated syndrome. At this phase, magnetic resonance imaging is an important predictor of conversion to multiple sclerosis. With the exception of oligoclonal bands, the role of other biomarkers in patients with clinically isolated syndrome is controversial. In the present study, we aimed to identify proteins associated with conversion to multiple sclerosis in patients with clinically isolated syndrome. We applied a mass spectrometry-based proteomic approach (isobaric labelling) to previously collected pooled cerebrospinal fluid samples from patients with clinically isolated syndrome, who subsequently converted to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (n=30) and patients who remained as having clinically isolated syndrome (n=30). Next, three of the most represented differentially expressed proteins, i.e. ceruloplasmin, vitamin D-binding protein and chitinase 3-like 1 were selected for validation in individual cerebrospinal fluid samples by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Only chitinase 3-like 1 was validated and cerebrospinal fluid levels were increased in patients who converted to clinically definite multiple sclerosis compared with patients who continued as clinically isolated syndrome (P=0.00002) and controls (P=0.012). High cerebrospinal fluid levels of chitinase 3-like 1 significantly correlated with the number of gadolinium enhancing lesions and the number of T2 lesions observed in brain magnetic resonance imaging scans performed at baseline, and were associated with disability progression during follow-up and shorter time to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (log-rank P-value=0.003). Cerebrospinal fluid chitinase 3-like 1 levels were also measured in a second validation clinically isolated syndrome cohort and found to be increased in patients who converted to multiple sclerosis compared with patients who remained as having clinically isolated syndrome (P=0.018). Our results indicate that patients who will convert to clinically definite multiple sclerosis could be distinguished from those patients who will remain as clinically isolated syndrome by proteomic analysis of cerebrospinal fluid samples. Although protein levels are also increased in other disorders characterized by chronic inflammation, chitinase 3-like 1 may serve as a prognostic biomarker for conversion to multiple sclerosis and development of disability which may help to improve the understanding of the aetiopathogenesis in the early stages of multiple sclerosis.

Presence of oligoclonal bands doubles the risk for having a second attack, independently of MRI, but does not seem to influence the development of disability.