Abstract. In this work we develop a reduced-complexity model (RCM) for river delta formation (referred to as DeltaRCM in the following). It is a rule-based cellular morphodynamic model, in contrast to reductionist models based on detailed computational fluid dynamics. The basic framework of this model (DeltaRCM) consists of stochastic parcel-based cellular routing schemes for water and sediment and a set of phenomenological rules for sediment deposition and erosion. The outputs of the model include a depth-averaged flow field, water surface elevation and bed topography that evolve in time. Results show that DeltaRCM is able (1) to resolve a wide range of channel dynamics – including elongation, bifurcation, avulsion and migration – and (2) to produce a variety of deltas such as alluvial fan deltas and deltas with multiple orders of bifurcations. We also demonstrate a simple stratigraphy recording component which tracks the distribution of coarse and fine materials and the age of the deposits. Essential processes that must be included in reduced-complexity delta models include a depth-averaged flow field that guides sediment transport a nontrivial water surface profile that accounts for backwater effects at least in the main channels, both bedload and suspended sediment transport, and topographic steering of sediment transport.

Understanding deltaic channel dynamics is essential to acquiring knowledge on how deltas respond to environmental changes, as channels control the distribution of water, sediment, and nutrients. Channel-resolving morphodynamic models provide the basis for quantitative study of channel-scale dynamics, but they need to be properly assessed with a set of robust metrics able to quantitatively characterize delta patterns and dynamics before being used as predictive tools. In this work we use metrics developed in the context of delta formation, to assess the morphodynamic results of DeltaRCM, a parcel-based cellular model for delta formation and evolution. By comparing model results to theoretical predictions and field and experimental observations, we show that DeltaRCM captures the geometric growth characteristics of deltas such as fractality of channel network, spatial distribution of wet and dry surfaces, and temporal dynamics of channel-scale processes such as the decay of channel planform correlation. After evaluating the ability of DeltaRCM to produce delta patterns and dynamics at the scale of channel processes, we use the model to predict the deltaic response to relative sea level rise (RSLR). We show that uniform subsidence and absolute sea level rise have similar effects on delta evolution and cause intensified channel branching. Channel network fractality and channel mobility increase with higher-RSLR rates, while the spatial and temporal scales of avulsion events decrease, resulting in smaller sand bodies in the stratigraphy. Our modeling results provide the first set of quantitative predictions of the effects of RSLR on river deltas with a specific focus on the distributary channel network.

Abstract. We develop a reduced-complexity model (RCM) delta formation model, in contrast to reductionist models based on high-resolution computational fluid dynamics. The basic framework of this model (referred in this paper as "DeltaRCM") consists of stochastic parcel-based cellular routing schemes for water and sediment and a set of phenomenological rules for sediment deposition and erosion. The outputs of the model include flow field, water surface topography and bed topography that evolves in time. Results show that DeltaRCM is able to: (1) resolve a wide range of channel dynamics, including elongation, bifurcation, avulsion and migration; (2) in response to the changes in input parameters, produce different types of deltas such as alluvial fan deltas at experimental scale. We also identify three key areas of particular model sensitivity, even at the RCM level: (1) avulsion dynamics is sensitive to dynamic free-surface topography; (2) channel network structure is sensitive to instability at channel mouths which creates bars; and (3) out-of-channel sedimentation is sensitive to water surface slope along channel margins. We also demonstrate a simple stratigraphy tracking component which can display the structure of the deposit in terms of distribution of coarse and fine materials along with the age of the deposit. DeltaRCM is a useful tool for understanding the dynamics of river deltas within a relatively simple cellular representation of water and sediment transport.

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