This study was undertaken to assess the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture in the Sikasso region of southern Mali, as part of an effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to integrate climate change adaptation considerations into their development projects. The region is considered to be the breadbasket of Mali, providing a substantial amount of the country's food supplies as well as cotton for exchange earnings. The project had two components: modeling how climate change could affect production of cereal and cash crops in southern Mali; and conducting a stakeholder-driven vulnerability and adaptation assessment to identify potential options for addressing current and projected risks to agriculture from climate change. Projected changes in crop yields were based on a previous analysis that was extended for the purposes of this study. The projections suggested that the sensitivity of maize to changing weather conditions is relatively small (generally less than 10% change) under both dry and wet scenarios in 2030 and 2060. White (Irish) potatoes, the primary cash crop, are the most sensitive to changing weather conditions, with yields decreasing under both dry and wet conditions; yields could decrease by about 25%

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Microfertilizing, consisting of applying small amounts of mineral fertilizer to the planting hole or pocket, was tested in Mali. Yields of sorghum increased by 34% and 52% compared with the control after applying 0.3 g of fertilizer per pocket for the years 2000 and 2001 respectively. For pearl millet, the corresponding yield increase was 48% and 67% for 2001 and 2003 respectively. Higher yield increases were observed when 6 g of fertilizer was applied per pocket than when 0.3 g of fertilizer was applied. The value–cost ratio varied from 3.4 to 11.9 in the 0.3 g treatment, and from 0.43 to 1.17 in the 6 g treatment. Application of 0.3 g of fertilizer appeals to farmers because of the good return on investment, low financial risk, low cash outlay and low workload required.