Fire blight is the most devastating bacterial disease of rosaceous plants. Forecasting fire blight infections is important to allow for countermeasures that reduce economic damage in pome fruit production. Current computerized forecasting models are solely based on physical factors such as temperature and moisture, but not on the actual presence of the pathogen Erwinia amylovora. Although the inoculum concentration is considered to be crucial for infection and disease outbreak, most current approaches used for identification of fire blight inoculum including morphological, biochemical, serological, and DNA-based methods are nonquantitative. Based on a real-time PCR approach previously published, an improved protocol to be used directly on whole bacteria in the field is described. The method allows for early detection and quantification of the pathogen prior to the occurrence of first symptoms. There is a clear correlation between bacterial abundance and subsequent disease development. However, in some cases, no disease symptoms could be observed despite a pathogen load of up to 3Á4 9 10 6 cells per blossom. Integration of the amount of pathogen detected into refined prediction algorithms may allow for the improvement of applied forecasting models, finally permitting a better abatement of fire blight.

Fire blight is the most damaging bacterial disease in apple production worldwide. Cankers and symptomless infected shoots are known as sites for the overwintering of Erwinia amylovora, subsequently providing primary inoculum for infection in the spring. In the present work, further potential sources of inoculum were investigated. Real-time PCR assays covering a 3-year-period classified 19Á9% of samples taken from fruit mummies as positive. Bacterial abundance in fruit mummies during autumn, winter and spring was up to 10 9 cells per gram of tissue and correlated well with later infection rates of blossoms. Blossoms of non-host plants growing close to infected trees were also shown to be colonized by E. amylovora and to enable epiphytic survival and propagation of bacteria. The results indicate a potential role of fruit mummies and buds in overwintering and as a source of primary inoculum for dissemination of the pathogen early in the growing season. Non-host blossoms may also serve as an inoculum source in the build-up of the pathogen population. Both aspects may contribute significantly to the epidemiology of E. amylovora. The significance of infected rootstocks as an inoculum source is also discussed. Fruit mummies might be used to determine pathogen pressure in an orchard before the beginning of the blooming period.