Lakes provide different ecosystem services, including those related to tourism and recreation. Sustainable development principles should be respected in lake tourism planning. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of tourism on the lakeshore zone in a typical post-glacial Lakeland in Northern Poland (Central Europe). An explanatory analysis of the distribution of individual spatial factor values was performed using the SHapley Additive exPlanations algorithm (SHAP). In a first step, the aim was to select a Machine Learning model for modelling based on Shapley values. The greater or lesser influence of a given factor on the tourism function was measured for individual lakes. The final results of ensemble modelling and SHAP were obtained by averaging the results of five random repetitions of the execution of these models. The impact of tourism on the lakeshore zone can be much more accurately determined using an indirect method, by analysing the tourism and recreational infrastructure constantly present there. The values of the indices proposed in the study provide indirect information on the number of tourists using the tourist and recreational facilities and are a measure of the impact of tourism on the lakeshore zone. The developed methodology can be applied to the majority of post-glacial lakes in Europe and other regions of the world in order to monitor the threats resulting from shore zone exploitation. Such studies can be an appropriate tool for management and planning by the relevant authorities.
(1) Background: This paper presents the land use and land cover change processes in the lakeshore zone in Poland and Hungary during 30 years. (2) Methods: Land use and land cover (LU/LC) maps were prepared using topographic maps and orthophotograph maps scaled 1:10,000. The study based on GIS data and field research. (3) Results: A significant increase in the area occupied by tourist and recreational infrastructure and forests in the lake shore zone was found in both countries. In Poland, this increase occurred mainly at the expense of arable land, which was a positive phenomenon. In Hungary, however, the main threat to the lakeshore zone was the increase of built-up area at the expense of semi-natural area. While the decrease in arable land was positive from an environmental point of view, the main threat to the Hungarian lake shore zone was the increase in built-up areas at the expense of semi-natural land. The results showed a positive correlation between the area of urbanized land and the area occupied by tourist and recreational buildings on the Polish lakes. There was no such correlation at the Hungarian lakes. (4) Conclusions: The most beneficial change in land cover for the lakes was the increase in forest area in the lake shore zone in both countries studied. Taking into account the results of previous studies, three main trends of changes in land cover and land use in the lakeshore zone were identified. These results shed new light on the problem of land use around lakeshores.
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