Background
The criteria for the selection of COVID‐19 patients that could benefit most from ECMO organ support are yet to be defined. In this study, we evaluated the predictive performance of ECMO mortality predictive models in patients with COVID‐19. We also performed a cost–benefit analysis depending on the mortality predicted probability. We conducted a retrospective cohort study in COVID‐19 patients who received ECMO at two tertiary care hospitals between March 2020 to July 2021.
Materials and Methods
We evaluated the discrimination (C‐statistic), calibration (Cox calibration), and accuracy of the prediction of death due to severe ARDS in V‐V ECMO score (PRESERVE), the Respiratory Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Survival Score (RESP) score, and the PREdiction of Survival on ECMO Therapy‐Score (PRESET) score. In addition, we compared the RESP score with Plateau pressure instead of Peak pressure.
Results
We included a total of 36 patients, 29 (80%) of them male and with a median (IQR) APACHE of 10 (8–15). The PRESET score had the highest discrimination (AUROCs 0.81 [95%CI 0.67–0.94]) and calibration (calibration‐in‐the‐large 0.5 [95%CI −1.4 to 0.3]; calibration slope 2.2 [95%CI 0.7/3.7]). The RESP score with Plateau pressure had higher discrimination than the conventional RESP score. The cost per QALY in the USA, adjusted to life expectancy, was higher than USD 100 000 in patients older than 45 years with a PRESET > 10.
Conclusion
The PRESET score had the highest predictive performance and could help in the selection of patients that benefit most from this resource‐demanding and highly invasive organ support.
Introducción: la probabilidad de presentar una forma grave de COVID-19 es mayor en personas con algunas condiciones preexistentes. En la Argentina, las personas con alguna de estas comorbilidades realizaron un trabajo remoto y diferenciado respecto de sus compañeros. Esta estrategia se denomina shielding y tiene resultados heterogéneos, ya que –si bien evita las infecciones– puede tener algún impacto en las vivencias y salud de las personas.
Métodos: investigación exploratoria a través de un diseño cualitativo basado en entrevistas
semiestructuradas.
Resultados: se realizaron 21 entrevistas. Se organizaron los conceptos en ejes temáticos de análisis. Como principales hallazgos se identificó que la salud general de las personas empeoró durante la pandemia a pesar de realizar trabajo diferenciado, y que durante el período explorado surgieron múltiples emergentes que incluyeron hábitos no saludables y estrategias positivas de afrontamiento. Respecto de lo laboral predominaron los sentimientos negativos.
Conclusión: la implementación de shielding resulta insuficiente como única medida para la preservación de la salud de las personas con mayor riesgo de desarrollar formas graves de COVID-19.
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