Background Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. MethodsThe main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function.Findings Globally, in 2017, 1•2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1•2 to 1•3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41•5% (95% UI 35•2 to 46•5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2•8%, -1•5 to 6•3). In 2017, 697•5 million (95% UI 649•2 to 752•0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9•1% (8•5 to 9•8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29•3% (95% UI 26•4 to 32•6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1•2%, -1•1 to 3•5). CKD resulted in 35•8 million (95% UI 33•7 to 38•0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1•4 million (95% UI 1•2 to 1•6) cardiovascular diseaserelated deaths and 25•3 million (22•2 to 28•9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function.Interpretation Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI.Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Summary Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people...

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017 Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low-and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. Gains in child survival have long served as an important proxy measure for improvements in overall population health and development 1,2. Global progress in reducing child deaths has been heralded as one of the greatest success stories of global health 3. The annual global number of deaths of children under 5 years of age (under 5) 4 has declined from 19.6 million in 1950 to 5.4 million in 2017. Nevertheless, these advances in child survival have been far from universally achieved, particularly in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) 4. Previous subnational child mortality assessments at the first (that is, states or provinces) or second (that is, districts or counties) administrative level indicate that extensive geographical inequalities persist 5-7. Progress in child survival also diverges across age groups 4. Global reductions in mortality rates of children under 5-that is, the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR)-among post-neonatal age groups are greater than those for mortality of neonates (0-28 days) 4,8. It is relatively unclear how these age patterns are shifting at a more local scale, posing challenges to ensuring child survival. To pursue the ambitious Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of the United Nations 9 to "end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5" by 2030, it is vital for decision-makers at all levels to better understand where, and at what ages, child survival remains most tenuous.

Background Vaccination is one of the cost effective strategies reducing childhood morbidity and mortality. Further improvement of immunization coverage would halt about 1.5 million additional deaths globally. Understanding the level of immunization among children is vital to design appropriate interventions. Therefore, this study aimed to assess full immunization coverage and its determinants among children aged 12–23 months in Ethiopia. Methods The study was based on secondary data analysis from the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS). Information about 1,909 babies aged 12–23 months was extracted from children dataset. Both bivariate and multivariable logistic regression models were utilized to assess the status and factors associated with full immunization. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was computed. Variables with less than 0.05 p -values in the multivariable logistic regression model were considered as statistically and significantly associated with the outcome variable. Results The overall full immunization coverage was 38.3% (95% CI: 36.7, 41.2). Rural residence (AOR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.43, 0.84), employed (AOR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.31, 2.0), female household head (AOR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.44, 0.76), wealth index [middle (AOR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.94) and richness (AOR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.25,2.19)], primary school maternal education (AOR = 1.38,95% CI: 1.07, 1.78), secondary school maternal education (AOR = 2.19, 95% CI: 1.43, 3.36), diploma graduated mothers (AOR = 1.99, 95% CI: 1.09, 3.61), ANC follow ups (AOR = 2.79, 95% CI:2.17 3.59), and delivery at health facilities (AOR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.36, 2.24) were significantly associated factors with full immunization. Conclusion Full immunization coverage in Ethiopia was significantly lower than the global target. Female household head and rural dwellings were negatively associated with full immunization. In contrast higher maternal education, employment, middle and rich economic status, ANC follow up, and delivery at health facility were positively associated with full immunization among 12–23 months old children. This suggests that improved health education and service expansion to remote areas are necessary to step immunization access.

BackgroundPrematurity accounts about 1 million neonatal deaths worldwide and the second causes of both neonatal and under five-child mortality. Neonatal mortality accounts for 43% of under-five child mortality in Ethiopia. From this preterm is the second leading cause of death and is steadily increased in low-income countries. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess time to death and predictors among preterm neonates admitted in University of Gondar comprehensive specialized hospital neonatal intensive care unit North West Ethiopia 2018.MethodsInstitution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 516 preterm neonates from January 2016 to March 2018. Data were extracted retrospectively from patients’ records using a pretested structured checklist. Descriptive summary statistics like median survival time, Kaplan Meier failure estimation curve and Log-rank test were computed. Bivariate and multivariable Gompertz parametric hazards models were fitted to identify the predictors of mortality. Hazard ratio with a 95% confidence interval was calculated and p-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.ResultsThe proportion of preterm neonatal death in this study was 28.8% (95%CI (25.1, 32.9)). Home delivery (AHR = 2.25, 95% CI (1.03, 4.88)), hyaline membrane disease (AHR =3.21, 95% CI (1.96, 5.25)), gestational age, (AHR = 0.82, 95% CI (0.74, 0.91)), cry immediately at birth (AHR = 1.74, 95% CI (1.19, 2.53)), kangaroo mother care (AHR = 0.24, 95%CI (0.11, 0.52)), presence of jaundice (AHR = 1.62, 95%CI (1.12, 2.54)) and hypoglycemia at admission (AHR = 1.75, 95%CI (1.21, 2.54)) were found to be significant predictors of time to death for preterm neonates.ConclusionProportion of preterm neonatal death in this study was high. Home delivery, Jaundice, hypoglycemia, gestational age, cry immediately at birth, kangaroo mother care and hyaline membrane disease were significant predictors of time to death.

Background Antenatal care (ANC) is special care for pregnant women with the aim of preventing, detecting and treating health problems in both the fetus and mother. Early ANC attendance promotes early detection and treatment of complications which result in proper management during delivery and puerperium. However, the majority of pregnant women in Ethiopia initiate their ANC late. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the prevalence of late initiation of ANC and its associated factors among attendants in Addis Zemen primary hospital. Method An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted at Addis Zemen primary hospital from February 7 to June 122,018. The systematic random sampling technique was employed to select 369 pregnant women who attended ANC in the hospital. Data cleaning and analysis was done using SPSS version 25 statistical software. Descriptive statics and bi variable and multivariable logistic regression models were employed to assess the magnitude and factors associated with late initiation of ANC defined as making the first visit after 12 weeks of gestation. Result This study indicated that 52.5% of the attendants initiated ANC late. The multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that being housewife (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.85, 95% CI: 1.36, 5.96), self-employment (AOR = 2.38, 95% CI: 1.12, 5.04), travel expenses (AOR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.05, 2.81), poor knowledge about ANC (AOR = 2.98, 95% CI: 1.78, 5.01) and unplanned pregnancy (AOR = 2.31, 95% CI: 1.28, 4.16) were significantly associated with late ANC initiation. Conclusion The prevalence of late ANC initiation remains a major public health issue in Ethiopia. The major factors for being late were found to be poor knowledge, being housewife, and self-employment, travel expenses and unintended pregnancy. District and zonal health offices should work to create awareness about the importance of early initiation of ANC, make the service closer to the community and increase contraceptive utilization.

Summary Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpreta...

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54•0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38•1-65•8), 17•4% (7•7-28•4), and 59•5% (34•2-86•9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.