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The application of physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling is coming of age in drug development and regulation, reflecting significant advances over the past 10 years in the predictability of key pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters from human in vitro data and in the availability of dedicated software platforms and associated databases. Specific advances and contemporary challenges with respect to predicting the processes of drug clearance, distribution, and absorption are reviewed, together with the ability to anticipate the quantitative extent of PK-based drug-drug interactions and the impact of age, genetics, disease, and formulation. The value of this capability in selecting and designing appropriate clinical studies, its implications for resource-sparing techniques, and a more holistic view of the application of PK across the preclinical/clinical divide are considered. Finally, some attention is given to the positioning of PBPK within the drug development and approval paradigm and its future application in truly personalized medicine.

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This work provides a perspective on the qualification and verification of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) platforms/models intended for regulatory submission based on the collective experience of the Simcyp Consortium members. Examples of regulatory submission of PBPK analyses across various intended applications are presented and discussed. European Medicines Agency (EMA) and US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recent draft guidelines regarding PBPK analyses and reporting are encouraging, and to advance the use and acceptability of PBPK analyses, more clarity and flexibility are warranted.

Generic distribution processes were identified as lipid partitioning and dissolution where the former is higher for lipophilic unionised drugs. In addition, electrostatic interactions with acidic phospholipids can predominate for ionised bases when affinities (reflected by binding to constituents within blood) are high. For acidic drugs albumin binding dominates when plasma protein binding is high. This ability to explain drug distribution and link it to physicochemical properties can help guide the compound selection process.

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Drug regulatory agencies should ensure that the benefits of drugs outweigh their risks, but licensed medicines sometimes do not perform as expected in everyday clinical practice. Failure may relate to lower than anticipated efficacy or a higher than anticipated incidence or severity of adverse effects. Here we show that the problem of benefit-risk is to a considerable degree a problem of variability in drug response. We describe biological and behavioural sources of variability and how these contribute to the long-known efficacy-effectiveness gap. In this context, efficacy describes how a drug performs under conditions of clinical trials, whereas effectiveness describes how it performs under conditions of everyday clinical practice. We argue that a broad range of pre- and post-licensing technologies will need to be harnessed to bridge the efficacy-effectiveness gap. Successful approaches will not be limited to the current notion of pharmacogenomics-based personalized medicines, but will also entail the wider use of electronic health-care tools to improve drug prescribing and patient adherence.