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[1] Shear instability is the dominant mechanism for converting fluid motion to mixing in the stratified ocean and atmosphere. The transition to turbulence has been well characterized in laboratory settings and numerical simulations at moderate Reynolds number-it involves "rolling up", i.e., overturning of the density structure within the cores of the instabilities. In contrast, measurements in an energetic estuarine shear zone reveal that the mixing induced by shear instability at high Reynolds number does not primarily occur by overturning in the cores; rather it results from secondary shear instabilities within the zones of intensified shear separating the cores. This regime is not likely to be observed in the relatively low Reynolds number flows of the laboratory or in direct numerical simulations, but it is likely a common occurrence in the ocean and atmosphere.

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A numerical circulation model with a simplified dissolved oxygen module is used to examine the importance of wind-driven ventilation of hypoxic waters in Chesapeake Bay. The model demonstrates that the interaction between wind-driven lateral circulation and enhanced vertical mixing over shoal regions is the dominant mechanism for providing oxygen to hypoxic sub-pycnocline waters. The effectiveness of this mechanism is strongly influenced by the direction of the wind forcing. Winds from the south are most effective at supplying oxygen to hypoxic regions, and winds from the west are shown to be least effective. Simple numerical simulations demonstrate that the volume of hypoxia in the bay is nearly 2.5 times bigger when the mean wind is from the southwest as compared to the southeast. These results provide support for a recent analysis that suggests much of the long-term variability of hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay can be explained by variations in the summertime wind direction.

In most estuarine systems it is assumed that the dominant along-channel momentum balance is between the integrated pressure gradient and bed stress. Scaling the amplitude of the estuarine circulation based on this balance has been shown to have predictive skill. However, a number of authors recently highlighted important nonlinear processes that contribute to the subtidal dynamics at leading order. In this study, a previously validated numerical model of the Hudson River estuary is used to examine the forces driving the residual estuarine circulation and to test the predictive skill of two linear scaling relationships. Results demonstrate that the nonlinear advective acceleration terms contribute to the subtidal along-channel momentum balance at leading order. The contribution of these nonlinear terms is driven largely by secondary lateral flows. Under a range of forcing conditions in the model runs, the advective acceleration terms nearly always act in concert with the baroclinic pressure gradient, reinforcing the residual circulation. Despite the strong contribution of the nonlinear advective terms to the subtidal dynamical balance, a linear scaling accurately predicts the strength of the observed residual circulation in the model. However, this result is largely fortuitous, as this scaling does not account for two processes that are fundamental to the estuarine circulation. The skill of this scaling results because of the compensatory relationship between the contribution of the advective acceleration terms and the suppression of turbulence due to density stratification. Both of these processes, neither of which is accounted for in the linear scaling, increase the residual estuarine circulation but have an opposite dependence on tidal amplitude and, consequently, strength of stratification.

Abstract. As three-dimensional (3-D) aquatic ecosystem models are used more frequently for operational water quality forecasts and ecological management decisions, it is important to understand the relative strengths and limitations of existing 3-D models of varying spatial resolution and biogeochemical complexity. To this end, 2-year simulations of the Chesapeake Bay from eight hydrodynamic-oxygen models have been statistically compared to each other and to historical monitoring data. Results show that although models have difficulty resolving the variables typically thought to be the main drivers of dissolved oxygen variability (stratification, nutrients, and chlorophyll), all eight models have significant skill in reproducing the mean and seasonal variability of dissolved oxygen. In addition, models with constant net respiration rates independent of nutrient supply and temperature reproduced observed dissolved oxygen concentrations about as well as much more complex, nutrient-dependent biogeochemical models. This finding has significant ramifications for short-term hypoxia forecasts in the Chesapeake Bay, which may be possible with very simple oxygen parameterizations, in contrast to the more complex full biogeochemical models required for scenario-based forecasting. However, models have difficulty simulating correct density and oxygen mixed layer depths, which are important ecologically in terms of habitat compression. Observations indicate a much stronger correlation between the depths of the top of the pycnocline and oxycline than between their maximum vertical gradients, highlighting the importance of the mixing depth in defining the region of aerobic habitat in the Chesapeake Bay when low-oxygen bottom waters are present. Improvement in hypoxia simulations will thus depend more on the ability of models to reproduce the correct mean and variability of the depth of the physically driven surface mixed layer than the precise magnitude of the vertical density gradient.

[1] A three-dimensional circulation model with a relatively simple dissolved oxygen model is used to examine the role that physical forcing has on controlling hypoxia and anoxia in Chesapeake Bay. The model assumes that the biological utilization of dissolved oxygen is constant in both time and space, isolating the role that physical forces play in modulating oxygen dynamics. Despite the simplicity of the model, it demonstrates skill in reproducing the observed variability of dissolved oxygen in the bay, highlighting the important role that variations in physical forcing have on the seasonal cycle of hypoxia. Model runs demonstrate significant changes in the annual integrated hypoxic volume as a function of river discharge, water temperature, and wind speed and direction. Variations in wind speed and direction had the greatest impact on the observed seasonal cycle of hypoxia and large impacts on the annually integrated hypoxic volume. The seasonal cycle of hypoxia was relatively insensitive to synoptic variability in river discharge, but integrated hypoxic volumes were sensitive to the overall magnitude of river discharge at annual time scales. Increases in river discharge were shown to increase hypoxic volumes, independent from the associated biological response to higher nutrient delivery. However, increases in hypoxic volume were limited at very high river discharge because increased advective fluxes limited the overall length of the hypoxic region. Changes in water temperature and its control on dissolved oxygen saturation were important to both the seasonal cycle of hypoxia and the overall magnitude of hypoxia in a given year.

Extensive hypoxia remains a problem in Chesapeake Bay, despite some reductions in estimated nutrient inputs. An analysis of a 58-yr time series of summer hypoxia reveals that a significant fraction of the interannual variability observed in Chesapeake Bay is correlated to changes in summertime wind direction that are the result of large-scale climate variability. Beginning around 1980, the surface pressure associated with the summer Bermuda high has weakened, favoring winds from a more westerly direction, the direction most correlated with observed hypoxia. Regression analysis suggests that the long-term increase in hypoxic volume observed in this dataset is only accounted for when both changes in wind direction and nitrogen loading are considered.