The present work is a continuation and development of research on prediction and analysis of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic.The proposed model adequately describes the development of the coronavirus epidemic with insufficient adherence to quarantine and social distancing. The transition from the absolute number of infected persons to their relative number per inhabitant of a settlement makes it possible to obtain universal calculation ratios.In performing the calculations, the choice of the date of the beginning of the epidemic is of great importance. Recommendations are given on how to determine the date of the beginning of the epidemic based on the analysis of statistical data on the spread of the epidemic. The coefficient of virus transmission rate k included in the calculated prognostic relation depends on the population size and the type of virus strain in the settlement in question. A simple ratio for calculating this coefficient as a function of population size is proposed.Control calculations performed using only a single empirical coefficient showed high accuracy. The calculated curves for Germany, Berlin, and its districts agree well with the corresponding statistical data. The correlation coefficients between the corresponding curves reach values of 0.93 to 0.97. The further development of the model should thus go in the direction of identifying causal links between the intensity of the epidemic and the main factors affecting this process. Some of these factors are related to the characteristics of the population’s behaviour and the infrastructure of cities. The increase in the incidence in areas with a large percentage of the population rooted in Islamic countries is one of the main factors determining the development of the epidemic in Berlin. In order to explain and clarify this conclusion, it is necessary to make further assumptions about the possible emergence of a new strain of coronavirus in Berlin and in Germany and, accordingly, about the possibility of new epidemic waves. A preliminary ratio for predicting the spread of the epidemic under conditions of simultaneous existence of both strains of coronavirus is given.Simplicity of the proposed prognostic method and high accuracy of the results allow to recommend it as an effective tool for operative analysis of various measures aimed to control the spread of COVID-19 epidemic including mass vaccination of population.
A calculation model has been proposed to forecast the spread of the СOVID-19 epidemic under quarantine conditions. The resulting simple analytical relationships allow for the assessment of factors determining the intensity of the spread of infection, including the changing requirements for quarantine severity. The prediction method presented makes it possible to calculate both the total number of infected persons and the maximum rate of spread of infection.Following the publication of this work in May 2020, in October this year there was a new surge in the virus epidemic, the intensity of which depends on the population’s compliance with the rules of hygiene and social distance. Comparison of the results of the model calculations with the statistics for Berlin shows that they are of satisfactory quality. In particular, it shows that with an epidemic growth rate of around 1,000 people/day, unless additional quarantine measures are taken, the total number of infections can be expected to approach 100,000 within approximately six months. It is shown that the intensity of the virus’s spread depends on the socio-demographic composition of the population in different districts of Berlin and age structure. The possible impact of behavioural factors dependent on the psychological state of people on the spread of the epidemic, which can be assessed by analysing changes in heart rate, is discussed.
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