The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant was first identified in the state of Maharashtra in late 2020 and spread throughout India, outcompeting pre-existing lineages including B.1.617.1 (Kappa) and B.1.1.7 (Alpha) 1 . In vitro, B.1.617.2 is 6-fold less sensitive to serum neutralising antibodies from recovered individuals, and 8-fold less sensitive to vaccine-elicited antibodies as compared to wild type (WT) Wuhan-1 bearing D614G. Serum neutralising titres against B.1.617.2 were lower in ChAdOx-1 versus BNT162b2 vaccinees. B.1.617.2 spike pseudotyped viruses exhibited compromised sensitivity to monoclonal antibodies against the receptor binding domain (RBD) and N-terminal domain (NTD). B.1.617.2 demonstrated higher replication efficiency in both airway organoid and human airway epithelial systems compared to B.1.1.7, associated with B.1.617.2 spike in a predominantly cleaved state compared to B.1.1.7. The B.1.617.2 spike protein was able to mediate highly efficient syncytium formation that was less sensitive to inhibition by neutralising antibody as compared to WT spike. Additionally we observed that B.1.617.2 had higher replication and spike mediated entry as compared to B.1.617.1, potentially explaining B.1.617.2 dominance. In an analysis of over 130 SARS-CoV-2 infected healthcare workers across three centres in India during a period of mixed lineage circulation, we observed reduced ChAdOx-1 vaccine effectiveness against B.1.617.2 relative to non-B.1.617.2, with the caveat of possible residual confounding. Compromised vaccine efficacy against the highly fit and immune evasive B.1.617.2 Delta variant warrants continued infection control measures in the post-vaccination era. India's first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in mid-2020 was relatively mild and was controlled by a nationwide lockdown. Since easing of restrictions, India has seen expansion in cases of COVID-19 since March

After escaping relatively unscathed during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, India witnessed a ferocious second COVID-19 wave, starting in March 2021 and accounting for about half of global cases by the first week of May. SARS-CoV-2 had spread widely throughout India in the first wave, with the third national serosurvey in January 2021 finding that 21.4% of adults and 25.3% of 10-to 17-year-old adolescents were seropositive (1). Delhi, the national capital, was not included in the national serosurvey but had undergone multiple periods of high transmission in 2020 (Fig. 1A). In a district-wise stratified serosurvey conducted by the Delhi Government in January 2021, overall seropositivity was reported to be 56.1% (95% CI, 55.5-56.8%), ranging from 49.1% to 62.2% across 11 districts (2). This was expected to confer some protection from future outbreaks.Despite high seropositivity, Delhi was amongst the most affected cities during the second wave. The rise in new cases was exceptionally rapid in April, going from approximately 2000 to 20,000 between 31 March and 16 April. This was accompanied by a rapid rise in hospitalizations and ICU admissions (Fig. 1B). In this emergency situation with saturated bed occupancy by 12 April, major private hospitals were declared by the state as full COVID care-only and senior medical students, including from alternative medicine branches, were pressed into service (3). Deaths rose proportionately (Fig. 1C) and the case-fatality ratio (CFR), estimated as the scaling factor between time-advanced cases and deaths (Fig. 1D), was stable (mean, SD; 1.9, 0.3%). Population spread of SARS-CoV-2 is underestimated by test positive cases alone (1, 2). To better understand the degree of spread and the factors leading to the unexpectedly severe outbreak, we used all available data including testing, sequencing, serosurveys, and serially followed cohorts.In the absence of finely resolved or serial data from national and state surveys, we focused on data for Delhi participants of a national serosurvey of Council of Scientific and

The B.1.617 variant emerged in the Indian state of Maharashtra in late 2020 and has spread throughout India and to at least 40 countries. There have been fears that two key mutations seen in the receptor binding domain L452R and E484Q would have additive effects on evasion of neutralising antibodies. Here we delineate the phylogenetics of B.1.617 and spike mutation frequencies, in the context of others bearing L452R. The defining mutations in B.1.617.1 spike are L452R and E484Q in the RBD that interacts with ACE2 and is the target of neutralising antibodies. All B.1.617 viruses have the P681R mutation in the polybasic cleavage site region in spike. We report that B.1.617.1 spike bearing L452R, E484Q and P681R mediates entry into cells with slightly reduced efficiency compared to Wuhan-1. This spike confers modestly reduced sensitivity to BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine-elicited antibodies that is similar in magnitude to the loss of sensitivity conferred by L452R or E484Q alone. Furthermore we show that the P681R mutation significantly augments syncytium formation upon the B.1.617.1 spike protein, potentially contributing to increased pathogenesis observed in hamsters and infection growth rates observed in humans.

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant was first identified in the state of Maharashtra in late 2020 and has spread throughout India, displacing the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant and other pre-existing lineages. Mathematical modelling indicates that the growth advantage is most likely explained by a combination of increased transmissibility and immune evasion. Indeed in vitro, the delta variant is less sensitive to neutralising antibodies in sera from recovered individuals, with higher replication efficiency as compared to the Alpha variant. In an analysis of vaccine breakthrough in over 100 healthcare workers across three centres in India, the Delta variant not only dominates vaccine-breakthrough infections with higher respiratory viral loads compared to non-delta infections (Ct value of 16.5 versus 19), but also generates greater transmission between HCW as compared to B.1.1.7 or B.1.617.1 (p=0.02). In vitro, the Delta variant shows 8 fold approximately reduced sensitivity to vaccine-elicited antibodies compared to wild type Wuhan-1 bearing D614G. Serum neutralising titres against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant were significantly lower in participants vaccinated with ChadOx-1 as compared to BNT162b2 (GMT 3372 versus 654, p<0001). These combined epidemiological and in vitro data indicate that the dominance of the Delta variant in India has been most likely driven by a combination of evasion of neutralising antibodies in previously infected individuals and increased virus infectivity. Whilst severe disease in fully vaccinated HCW was rare, breakthrough transmission clusters in hospitals associated with the Delta variant are concerning and indicate that infection control measures need continue in the post-vaccination era.

In April 2021, after successfully enduring three waves of the SARS-CoV2 pandemic in 2020, and having reached population seropositivity of about 50%, Delhi, the national capital of India was overwhelmed by the fourth wave. Here, we trace viral, host, and social factors contributing to the scale and exponent of the fourth wave, when compared to preceding waves, in an epidemiological context. Genomic surveillance data from Delhi and surrounding states shows an early phase of the upsurge driven by the entry of the more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) into the region in January, with at least one B.1.1.7 super spreader event in February 2021, relatable to known mass gatherings over this period. This was followed by seeding of the B.1.617 VOC, which too is highly transmissible, with rapid expansion of B.1.617.2 sub-lineage outpacing all other lineages. This unprecedented growth of cases occurred in the background of high seropositivity, but with low median neutralizing antibody levels, in a serially sampled cohort. Vaccination breakthrough cases over this period were noted, disproportionately related to VOC in sequenced cases, but usually mild. We find that this surge of SARS-CoV2 infections in Delhi is best explained by the introduction of a new highly transmissible VOC, B.1.617.2, with likely immune-evasion properties; insufficient neutralizing immunity, despite high seropositivity; and social behavior that promoted transmission.