Population divergence is the first step in allopatric speciation, as has long been recognized in both theoretical models of speciation and empirical explorations of natural systems. All else being equal, lineages with substantial population differentiation should form new species more quickly than lineages that maintain range-wide genetic cohesion through high levels of gene flow. However, there have been few direct tests of the extent to which population differentiation predicts speciation rates as measured on phylogenetic trees. Here, we explicitly test the links between organismal traits, population-level processes, and phylogenetic speciation rates across a diverse clade of Australian lizards that shows remarkable variation in speciation rate. Using genome-wide double digest restriction site-associated DNA data from 892 individuals, we generated a comparative data set on isolation by distance and population differentiation across 104 putative species-level lineages (operational taxonomic units). We find that species show substantial variation in the extent of population differentiation, and this variation is predicted by organismal traits that are thought to be proxies for dispersal and deme size. However, variation in population structure does not predict variation in speciation rate. Our results suggest that population differentiation is not the rate-limiting step in species formation and that other ecological and historical factors are primary determinants of speciation rates at macroevolutionary scales.

The identification of conserved loci across genomes, along with advances in target capture methods and high-throughput sequencing, has helped spur a phylogenomics revolution by enabling researchers to gather large numbers of homologous loci across clades of interest with minimal upfront investment in locus design. Target capture for vertebrate animals is currently dominated by two approaches-anchored hybrid enrichment (AHE) and ultraconserved elements (UCE)-and both approaches have proven useful for addressing questions in phylogenomics, phylogeography and population genomics. However, these two sets of loci have minimal overlap with each other; moreover, they do not include many traditional loci that that have been used for phylogenetics. Here, we combine across UCE, AHE and traditional phylogenetic gene locus sets to generate the Squamate Conserved Loci set, a single integrated probe set that can generate high-quality and highly complete data across all three loci types. We use these probes to generate data for 44 phylogenetically disparate taxa that collectively span approximately 33% of terrestrial vertebrate diversity. Our results generated an average of 4.29 Mb across 4709 loci per individual, of which an average of 2.99 Mb was sequenced to high enough coverage (≥10×) to use for population genetic analyses. We validate the utility of these loci for both phylogenomic and population genomic questions, provide a comparison among these locus sets of their relative usefulness and suggest areas for future improvement.

Genome-scale data have the potential to clarify phylogenetic relationships across the tree of life, but have also revealed extensive gene tree conflict. This seeming paradox, whereby larger datasets both increase statistical confidence and uncover significant discordance, suggests that understanding sources of conflict is important for accurate reconstruction of evolutionary history. We explore this paradox in squamate reptiles, the vertebrate clade comprising lizards, snakes, and amphisbaenians. We collected an average of 5103 loci for 91 species of squamates that span higher-level diversity within the clade, which we augmented with publicly available sequences for an additional 17 taxa. Using a locus-by-locus approach, we evaluated support for alternative topologies at 17 contentious nodes in the phylogeny. We identified shared properties of conflicting loci, finding that rate and compositional heterogeneity drives discordance between gene trees and species tree and that conflicting loci rarely overlap across contentious nodes. Finally, by comparing our tests of nodal conflict to previous phylogenomic studies, we confidently resolve nine of the 17 problematic nodes. We suggest this locus-by-locus and node-by-node approach can be used to build consensus on which topological resolutions remain uncertain in phylogenomic studies of other contentious groups.

Color polymorphism in natural populations can manifest as a striking patchwork of phenotypes in space, with neighboring populations characterized by dramatic differences in morph composition. These geographic mosaics can be challenging to explain in the absence of localized selection because they are unlikely to result from simple isolation-by-distance or clinal variation in selective regimes. To identify processes that can lead to the formation of geographic mosaics, we developed a simulation-based model to explore the influence of predator perspective, selection, migration, and genetic linkage of color loci on allele frequencies in polymorphic populations over space and time. Using simulated populations inspired by the biology of Heliconius longwing butterflies, Cepaea land snails, Oophaga poison frogs, and Sonora ground snakes, we found that the relative sizes of predator and prey home ranges can produce large differences in morph composition between neighboring populations under both positive and negative frequency-dependent selection. We also demonstrated the importance of the interaction of predator perspective with the type of frequency dependence and localized directional selection across migration and selection intensities. Our results show that regional-scale predation can promote the formation of phenotypic mosaics in prey species, without the need to invoke spatial variation in selective regimes. We suggest that predator behavior can play an important and underappreciated role in the formation and maintenance of geographic mosaics in polymorphic species.