The cardiovascular outcomes challenge examined the predictive accuracy of 10 diabetes models in estimating hard outcomes in 2 recent cardiovascular outcomes trials (CVOTs) and whether recalibration can be used to improve replication. Methods: Participating groups were asked to reproduce the results of the Empagliflozin Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients (EMPA-REG OUTCOME) and the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) Program. Calibration was performed and additional analyses assessed model ability to replicate absolute event rates, hazard ratios (HRs), and the generalizability of calibration across CVOTs within a drug class. Results: Ten groups submitted results. Models underestimated treatment effects (ie, HRs) using uncalibrated models for both trials. Calibration to the placebo arm of EMPA-REG OUTCOME greatly improved the prediction of event rates in the placebo, but less so in the active comparator arm. Calibrating to both arms of EMPA-REG OUTCOME individually enabled replication of the observed outcomes. Using EMPA-REG OUTCOME-calibrated models to predict CANVAS Program outcomes was an improvement over uncalibrated models but failed to capture treatment effects adequately. Applying canagliflozin HRs directly provided the best fit. Conclusions: The Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge demonstrated that commonly used risk equations were generally unable to capture recent CVOT treatment effects but that calibration of the risk equations can improve predictive accuracy. Although calibration serves as a practical approach to improve predictive accuracy for CVOT outcomes, it does not extrapolate generally to other settings, time horizons, and comparators. New methods and/or new risk equations for capturing these CV benefits are needed.
Introduction: International guidelines recommend treatment with a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitor or glucagonlike peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist for treatment intensification in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients with progression on metformin. In the randomised, controlled, Digital Features To view digital features for this article go to
IntroductionIn the cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOT) EMPA-REG OUTCOME, TECOS and SAVOR-TIMI 53, empagliflozin [sodium/glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor], sitagliptin and saxagliptin [both dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitors] + standard of care (SoC) were compared to SoC in patients with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study assessed the cost-effectiveness (CE) of empagliflozin + SoC in comparison to sitagliptin + SoC and saxagliptin + SoC based on the respective CVOT.MethodsThe IQVIA Core Diabetes Model (CDM) was calibrated to reproduce the CVOT outcomes. EMPA-REG OUTCOME baseline characteristics and CVOT specific treatment effects on risk factors for cardiovascular disease [glycated haemogloblin A1c (HbA1c), body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, lipids] were applied. Three-year observed cardiovascular events of empagliflozin + SoC versus sitagliptin + SoC and saxagliptin + SoC were derived from EMPA-REG OUTCOME and an indirect treatment comparison. Relative risk (RR) adjustments to calibrate the CDM were estimated after consecutive attempts of running the model until the observed and CDM-predicted outcomes matched closely. The drug-specific treatment effects were considered up until treatment switch (when HbA1c reached 8.5%), after which, the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) 82 risk equations predicted events based on co-existing risk factors and treatment intensification to basal-bolus insulin were applied. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. Costs and quality of life data were derived from UK national sources and published literature. A 50-year time horizon and discount rate of 3.5% were applied.ResultsThe CDM projected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 6.408, 5.917 and 5.704 and total costs of 50,801 GBP, 47,627 GBP and 48,071 GBP for empagliflozin + SoC, sitagliptin + SoC and saxagliptin + SoC, respectively. The incremental CE ratio (ICER) of empagliflozin + SoC versus sitagliptin + SoC and saxagliptin + SoC was 6464 GBP/QALY and 3878 GBP/QALY, respectively. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated the robustness of the results.ConclusionResults suggest that empagliflozin + SoC is cost-effective compared to sitagliptin + SoC and saxagliptin + SoC at a willingness to pay threshold of 20,000 GBP/QALY.FundingBoehringer Ingelheim International GmbH.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13300-019-00701-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Objective: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has become the therapy of choice for treating severe aortic stenosis in patients at high-risk for surgery or where it is considered too risky to attempt. This uptake varies across geographies however, and its cost or value has frequently been cited as the reason for this. We sought to evaluate the potential cost and clinical impact of TAVI in intermediate risk patients from a French collective perspective. Materials and methods: The analysis was performed using a novel Markov model with data derived from the PARTNER II randomized controlled trial for survival, clinical event rates, and quality-of-life. The simulated time horizon was 15 years, costs were from French sources and presented in 2016 Euros. Discounting of all outcomes was at 4% annually and the effect of uncertainty in model parameters was explored by deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Results: In comparison to surgery, TAVI resulted in improved clinical outcomes (life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy) and lower costs over a lifetime time horizon. The base case results showed increases of 0.42 years and 0.41 QALYs with lifetime cost savings of e439 for TAVI compared to surgery. PSA results showed a >50% likelihood of cost-effectiveness at e0 willingness-to-pay and a 100% likelihood at $e15,000. Limitations: Clinically, survival projections are based on limited follow-up data and introduce uncertainty into the outcomes from the model. Economically, procedure costs are derived from a heterogeneous mix of patient risk groups, although this is much more likely to bias against TAVI and underestimate overall cost savings. Conclusions: In our analyses of intermediate risk patients, TAVI is associated with superior clinical outcomes compared to surgery and is cost saving. It could be expected that cost savings are conservative and likely to increase over time.
Introduction: International and Danish guidelines recommend the use of glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors already in second line in the management of type 2 diabetes (T2D). The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term costeffectiveness (CE) of subcutaneous (SC)
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.