Across three experiments (N = 1565), we investigated how forecasts about the spread of COVID 19 are impacted by data trends, and whether patterns of misestimation predict adherence to social-distancing guidelines. We also investigated how mode of data presentation influences forecasting of future cases by showing participants data on the number of COVID-19 cases from a 5-week period in either graphical, tabular, or text-only form. We consistently found that people shown tables produced more accurate forecasts compared to people shown line-graphs of the same data; yet people shown line-graphs were more confident in their estimates. These findings suggest that graphs engender false-confidence in the accuracy of forecasts, that people’s forecasts of future cases have important implications for their attitudes concerning social distancing, and that tables may be better than graphs for informing the public about the trajectory of COVID-19. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.3758/s13421-022-01288-0.

On April 13, 2021, the CDC announced that the administration of Johnson and Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine would be paused due to a rare blood clotting side effect in ~ 0.0001% of people given the vaccine. Most people who are hesitant to get a COVID-19 vaccine list potential side effects as their main concern (PEW, 2021); thus, it is likely that this announcement increased vaccine hesitancy among the American public. Two days after the CDC’s announcement, we administered a survey to a group of 2,046 Americans to assess their changes in attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccines. The aim of this study was to investigate whether viewing icon arrays of side effect risk would prevent increases in COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy due to the announcement. We found that using icon arrays to illustrate the small chance of experiencing the blood clotting side effect significantly prevented increases in aversion toward the Johnson and Johnson vaccine as well as all other COVID-19 vaccines.

Gender disparities in STEM fields emerge starting in the fourth grade, when girls are less likely than boys to express interest in STEM fields. Outreach events targeted to girls during this crucial developmental period can foster a sense of belonging in STEM. Women+ Excelling More in Math, Engineering, and the Sciences (F.E.M.M.E.S.) is a student-run organization at the University of Michigan that organizes STEM outreach events for children in the fourth grade and older. During the COVID-19 pandemic, F.E.M.M.E.S. transitioned events to a virtual setting. This manuscript describes the design of the virtual program, which included hands-on activities, live virtual demonstrations, and engaged role models. This manuscript also presents survey results from participants and volunteers to demonstrate the overall success of the virtual program and areas for improvement.