Background:National projections of future joint arthroplasties are useful for understanding the changing burden of surgery and related outcomes on the health system. The aim of this study is to update the literature by producing Medicare projections for primary total joint arthroplasty (TJA) procedures until 2040 and 2060.Methods:The present study used data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Medicare/Medicaid Part B National Summary and combined procedure counts with use of Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes to identify whether the procedure was a primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA) procedure. In 2019, the annual volume of primary TKA was 480,958 and that of primary THA was 262,369. These values formed a baseline from which we generated point forecasts for 2020-2060 and 95% forecast intervals (FIs).Results:Between 2000 and 2019, the estimated annual volume of THA increased by 177% and that of TKA increased by 156% on average. Regression analysis projected an annual growth rate of 5.2% for THA and 4.44% for TKA. Based on these yearly projected increases, an estimated increase of 28.84% and 24.28% is expected for each 5-year period after 2020 for THA and TKA, respectively. By 2040, the number of THAs is projected to be 719,364 (95% FI, 624,766 to 828,286) and the number of TKA is projected to be 1,222,988 (95% FI, 988,714 to 1,512,772). By 2060, the number of THAs is projected to be 1,982,099 (95% FI, 1,624,215 to 2,418,839) and the number of TKAs is projected to be 2,917,959 (95% FI, 2,160,951 to 3,940,156). In 2019, Medicare data showed that THA constituted approximately 35% of TJA procedures performed.Conclusions:Based on 2019 total volume counts, our model forecasts an increase in THA procedures of 176% by 2040 and 659% by 2060. The estimated increase for TKA is projected to be 139% by 2040 and 469% by 2060. An accurate projection of future primary TJA procedure demands is important in order to understand future health-care utilization and surgeon demand. This finding is only applicable to a Medicare population and demands further analysis to see if this extends to other population groups.Level of Evidence:Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

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Unsafe opioid distribution remains a major concern among the total knee arthroplasty (TKA) population. Perioperative opioid use has been shown to be associated with poorer outcomes in patients undergoing TKA including longer length of stay (LOS) and discharges to extended care facilities. The current study aims to detail perioperative opioid use patterns and investigate the effects of preoperative chronic opioid use on perioperative quality outcomes in TKA patients. A retrospective analysis was performed on 338 consecutive TKAs conducted at our institution. Two cohorts were compared in this study—preoperative chronic opioid users and nonchronic opioid users. Opioid usage patterns and quality metrics were collected and analyzed over a 3-month preoperative and a 6-month postoperative period. Fifty-four (16.0%) preoperative chronic opioid users were identified out of the total 338 patients included in the study. Preoperative chronic opioid users experienced significantly longer LOS (2.9 vs 2.6 days; p = 0.026). Patients who remained persistent chronic users throughout the preoperative and postoperative stages demonstrated a significantly longer LOS (3.4 days vs 2.5 days; p = 0.017) compared with those who were no longer chronically using opioids by the 6 months postoperative period. By the 6 months postoperative time point, preoperative chronic users were consuming eight times the morphine-equivalents (mg/day) compared with nonchronic users (p < 0.001). Preoperative chronic opioid use was associated with substantially higher usage patterns throughout the postoperative stages. Such opioid use patterns were associated with longer LOS. Given that perioperative chronic opioid use has shown to negatively impact TKA outcomes, future studies refining current perioperative management strategies are warranted. This is a Level II, prognostic study.

When stratified by sex and age, there is a greater age-adjusted prevalence of osteoarthritis in women (23.5%) as compared with men (18.1%).» The discrepancy between males and females in the prevalence of osteoarthritis is likely multifactorial, being related to hormonal, metabolic, structural, and nutritional differences.» Cartilage is lost at a higher rate in women after accounting for confounding variables such as age, body mass index, and bone volume at baseline. » Estrogen replacement therapy diminishes the expression of proinflammatory cytokines and reduces the prevalence of osteoarthritis in animal models and humans.» Much work remains to understand the etiology of the sex gap seen in degenerative joint disease.

Aims It has previously been shown that higher-volume hospitals have better outcomes following revision total knee arthroplasty (rTKA). We were unable to identify any studies which investigated the effect of surgeon volume on the outcome of rTKA. We sought to investigate whether patients of high-volume (HV) rTKA surgeons have better outcomes following this procedure compared with those of low-volume (LV) surgeons. Methods This retrospective study involved patients who underwent aseptic unilateral rTKA between January 2016 and March 2019, using the database of a large urban academic medical centre. Surgeons who performed ≥ 19 aseptic rTKAs per year during the study period were considered HV and those who performed < 19 per year were considered LV. Demographic characteristics, surgical factors, and postoperative outcomes were compared between the two groups. Results A total of 308 rTKAs were identified, 132 performed by HV surgeons and 176 by 22 LV surgeons. The LV group had a significantly greater proportion of non-smokers (59.8% vs 49.2%; p = 0.029). For all types of revision, HV surgeons had significantly shorter mean operating times by 17.75 minutes (p = 0.007). For the 169 full revisions (85 HV, 84 LV), HV surgeons had significantly shorter operating times (131.12 (SD 33.78) vs 171.65 (SD 49.88) minutes; p < 0.001), significantly lower re-revision rates (7.1% vs 19.0%; p = 0.023) and significantly fewer re-revisions (0.07 (SD 0.26) vs 0.29 (SD 0.74); p = 0.017). Conclusion Patients of HV rTKA surgeons have better outcomes following full rTKA. These findings support the development of revision teams within arthroplasty centres of excellence to offer patients the best possible outcomes following rTKA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6 Supple A):131–136.

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This study examined an early iteration of an inpatient opioid administration-reporting tool, which standardized patient opioid consumption as an average daily morphine milligram equivalence per surgical encounter (MME/day/encounter) among total knee arthroplasty (TKA) recipients. The objective was to assess the variability of inpatient opioid administration rates among surgeons after implementation of a multimodal opioid sparing pain protocol. We queried the electronic medical record at our institution for patients undergoing elective primary TKA between January 1, 2016 and June 30, 2018. Patient demographics, inpatient and surgical factors, and inpatient opioid administration were retrieved. Opioid consumption was converted into average MME for each postoperative day. These MME/day/encounter values were used to determine mean and variance of opioids prescribed by individual surgeons. A secondary analysis of regional inpatient opioid consumption was determined by patient zip codes. In total, 23 surgeons performed 4,038 primary TKA. The institutional average opioid dose was 46.24 ± 0.75 MME/day/encounter. Average intersurgeon (IS) opioid prescribing ranged from 17.67 to 59.15 MME/day/encounter. Intrasurgeon variability ranged between ± 1.01 and ± 7.51 MME/day/encounter. After adjusting for patient factors, the average institutional MME/day/encounter was 38.43 ± 0.42, with average IS variability ranging from 18.29 to 42.84 MME/day/encounter, and intrasurgeon variability ranging between ± 1.05 and ± 2.82 MME/day/encounter. Our results suggest that there is intrainstitutional variability in opioid administration following primary TKA even after controlling for potential patient risk factors. TKA candidates may benefit from the implementation of a more rigid standardization of multimodal pain management protocols that can control pain while minimizing the opioid burden. This is a level of evidence III, retrospective observational analysis.