[1] Variations in the prediction of recharge is addressed by comparing recharge simulated using climate data generated using a state-of-the-art downscaling method, TreeGen, with a range of global climate models (GCMs). The study site is the transnational AbbotsfordSumas aquifer in coastal British Columbia, Canada and Washington State, USA, and is representative of a wet coastal climate. Sixty-four recharge zones were defined based on combinations of classed soil permeability, vadose zone permeability, and unsaturated zone depth (or depth to water table) mapped in the study area. One-dimensional recharge simulations were conducted for each recharge zone using the HELP hydrologic model, which simulates percolation through a vertical column. The HELP model is driven by mean daily temperature, daily precipitation, and daily solar radiation. For the historical recharge simulations, the climate data series was generated using the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. Historical recharge was compared to recharge simulated using climate data series derived from the TreeGen downscaling model for three future time periods: 2020s (2010-2039), 2050s (2040-2069), and 2080s (2070-2099) for each of four GCMs (CGCM3.1, ECHAM5, PCM1, and CM2.1). Recharge results are compared on an annual basis for the entire aquifer area. Both increases and decreases relative to historical recharge are simulated depending on time period and model. By the 2080s, the range of model predictions spans −10.5% to +23.2% relative to historical recharge. This variability in recharge predictions suggests that the seasonal performance of the downscaling tool is important and that a range of GCMs should be considered for water management planning.

Abstract.Here we present a general approach of calibrating transient transport models to tritium concentrations in river waters developed for the MT3DMS/MODFLOW model of the western Lake Taupo catchment, New Zealand. Tritium has a known pulse-shaped input to groundwater systems due to the bomb tritium in the early 1960s and, with its radioactive half-life of 12.32 yr, allows for the determination of the groundwater age. In the transport model, the tritium input (measured in rainfall) passes through the groundwater system, and the simulated tritium concentrations are matched to the measured tritium concentrations in the river and stream outlets for the Waihaha, Whanganui, Whareroa, Kuratau and Omori catchments from 2000-2007. For the Kuratau River, tritium was also measured between 1960 and 1970, which allowed us to fine-tune the transport model for the simulated bomb-peak tritium concentrations. In order to incorporate small surface water features in detail, an 80 m uniform grid cell size was selected in the steady-state MOD-FLOW model for the model area of 1072 km 2 . The groundwater flow model was first calibrated to groundwater levels and stream baseflow observations. Then, the transient tritium transport MT3DMS model was matched to the measured tritium concentrations in streams and rivers, which are the natural discharge of the groundwater system. The tritium concentrations in the rivers and streams correspond to the residence time of the water in the groundwater system (groundwater age) and mixing of water with different age. The transport model output showed a good agreement with the measured tritium values. Finally, the tritium-calibrated MT3DMS model is applied to simulate groundwater ages, which are used to obtain groundwater age distributions with mean residence times (MRTs) in streams and rivers for the five catchments. The effect of regional and local hydrogeology on the simulated groundwater ages is investigated by demonstrating groundwater ages at five model cross-sections to better understand MRTs simulated with tritium-calibrated MT3DMS and lumped parameter models.

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Groundwater systems in arid regions will be particularly sensitive to climate change owing to the strong dependence of rates of evapotranspiration on temperature, and shifts in the precipitation regimes. In agricultural areas, such changes in climate may require increased irrigation, putting stress on existing water supplies. In this study, a regional-scale numerical groundwater model was developed for the Oliver region of the south Okanagan, British Columbia, Canada, to simulate the impacts of future predicted climate change on groundwater. In future time periods (the 2050s and 2080s), the most noticeable change in the water budget is the increased contribution of recharge to the annual water budget, estimated at 1.2% (2050s) and 1.4% (2080s) of the total annual budget relative to the current conditions. This increase is related primarily to increases to irrigation return flow resulting from higher irrigation needs under warmer temperatures and a longer growing season. Increases in recharge and irrigation return flow will result in higher water tables with future climate conditions, particularly in the irrigation districts. Median value increases in groundwater level of up to 0.7 m by the 2080s are estimated.

Abstract. The purpose of this study is to simulate tritium concentrations and groundwater transit times in river water with particle-tracking (MODPATH) and compare them to solute transport (MT3DMS) simulations. Tritium measurements in river water are valuable for the calibration of particle-tracking and solute transport models as well as for understanding of watershed storage dynamics. In a previous study, we simulated tritium concentrations in river water of the western Lake Taupo catchment (WLTC) using a MODFLOW-MT3DMS model (Gusyev et al., 2013). The model was calibrated to measured tritium in river water at baseflows of the Waihaha, Whanganui, Whareroa, Kuratau, and Omori river catchments of the WLTC. Following from that work we now utilized the same MODFLOW model for the WLTC to calculate the pathways of groundwater particles (and their corresponding tritium concentrations) using steady-state particle tracking MODPATH model. In order to simulate baseflow tritium concentrations with MODPATH, transit time distributions (TTDs) are necessary to understand the lag time between the entry and discharge points of a tracer and are generated for the river networks of the five WLTC outflows. TTDs are used in the convolution integral with an input tritium concentration time series obtained from the precipitation measurements. The resulting MODPATH tritium concentrations yield a very good match to measured tritium concentrations and are similar to the MT3DMS-simulated tritium concentrations, with the greatest variation occurring around the bomb peak. MODPATH and MT3DMS also yield similar mean transit times (MTTs) of groundwater contribution to river baseflows, but the actual shape of the TTDs is strikingly different. While both distributions provide valuable information, the methodologies used to derive the TTDs are fundamentally different and hence must be interpreted differently. With the current MT3DMS model settings, only the methodology used with MODPATH provides the true TTD for use with the convolution integral.