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Outbreaks of bovine ephemeral fever (BEF) occurred in Israel in 1990, 1999, and 2004. The main patterns of BEF spread were similar in the 1990 and in 1999 epidemics, and the BEF virus was probably carried in vectors transported by air streams across the Rift Valley and the Red Sea. In the 2004 outbreak, the primary focus of the disease was the southern Mediterranean coastal plain and the disease agent was apparently brought by infected mosquitoes carried from their breeding site in the Nile Delta by the south-western winds. The disease broke out under optimal ecological conditions, among a vulnerable cattle population and spread rapidly; it showed essentially a spring-summer herd incidence and terminated soon after the night average ambient temperature fell below 16°C in late autumn. The herd incidence of the disease reached 78.4%, 97.7%, and 100% in 1990, 1999, and 2004, respectively. The highest herd incidence, morbidity, and case fatality rates were noted in dairy cattle herds in the Jordan Valley, with morbidity of 20%, 38.6%, and 22.2%, and case fatality rate among affected animals of 2%, 8.6%, and 5.4% in 1990, 1999, and 2004, respectively. The average sero-positivity to BEF in 1999 was 39.5%, which matched the morbidity rate. Comparison among the various age groups showed that the lowest morbidity rates were observed in the youngest age group, that is, heifers up to 1 year, with 3.2%, 3.6%, and 4.2% in 1990, 1999, and 2004, respectively. In heifers from 1 year to calving, the morbidity rates were 13.8%, 14.9%, and 28%, respectively, in first calvers 30.8%, 31.6%, and 28.3%, respectively, and in cows 34.3%, 35.7%, and 27.2%, respectively. All affected cattle were over the age of 3 months. It is hypothesized that mosquitoes and not Culicoides spp. are the vectors of the BEF virus in Israel.

Determining the temporal relationship between climate and epidemics of Culicoides-borne viral disease may allow control and surveillance measures to be implemented earlier and more efficiently. In Israel, outbreaks of bluetongue (BT) have occurred almost annually since at least 1950, with severe episodes occurring periodically. In this paper, the authors model a twenty-year time-series of BT outbreaks in relation to climate. Satellite-derived correlates of low temperatures and high moisture levels increased the number of outbreaks per year. This is the first study to find a temporal relationship between the risk of Culicoides-borne disease and satellite-derived climate variables. Climatic conditions in the year preceding a BT episode, between October and December, coincident with the seasonal peak of vector abundance and outbreak numbers, appeared to be more important than spring or early summer conditions in the same year as the episode. Since Israel is an arid country, higher-thanaverage moisture levels during this period may increase the availability of breeding sites and refuges for adult Culicoides imicola vectors, while coolerthan-average temperatures will increase fecundity, offspring size and survival through adulthood in winter, which, in turn, increases the size of the initial vector population the following year. The proportion of variance in the annual BT outbreak time-series resulting from climate factors was relatively low, at around 20%. This was possibly due to temporal variation in other factors, such as viral incursions from surrounding countries and levels of herd immunity. Alternatively, since most BT virus (BTV) circulation in this region occurs silently, in resistant breeds of local sheep, the level of transmission is poorly correlated with outbreak notification so that strong relationships between BTV circulation and climate, if they exist, are obscured.

In two epidemics of bovine ephemeral fever (BEF) in Israel, one in 1990 and one in 1999, the virus was probably carried by vectors transported by air currents across the Rift Valley and through the Red Sea trough. The disease broke out under optimal ecological conditions among vulnerable cattle populations and spread rapidly; it developed in the spring and summer and ended soon after the daily average ambient temperature fell below 16 degrees C in late autumn. The proportion of herds affected reached 78.4 and 97.7 per cent in 1990 and 1999, respectively. The highest rates of incidence, morbidity and mortality were recorded in dairy cattle herds in the Jordan Valley, the initial focus of the outbreaks, with a morbidity of 20 and 38.6 per cent in 1990 and 1999, respectively, and mortality among the affected animals of 2 and 8.6 per cent in 1990 and 1999, respectively. In 1991, the disease recurred sporadically in the central and southern regions of Israel in only three herds, but in 2000 the disease returned on an epidemic scale, and 85 per cent of herds were affected, with morbidity and mortality rates of 4-3 and 0-3 per cent, respectively. In the 1999 epidemic, the morbidity rate decreased from 38-6 per cent on average in the Jordan Valley to 12.8 per cent in the inner valleys and 5.3 per cent on the Mediterranean coastal plain, but the mortality rate increased from 8-6 per cent in the Jordan Valley to 14-3 per cent in the inner valleys, and to 28 per cent on the Mediterranean coastal plain, where the outbreak declined. An average of 2-7 per cent of the animals experienced a second attack of the disease two to six weeks later. The epidemic in 2000 was milder and shorter than that in 1999. All the cattle affected in both outbreaks were more than three months old. The vector(s) is not known for certain but the available evidence indicates that mosquitoes, and not Culicoides species, are the natural vectors of BEF virus in Israel.

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