Soil is the largest terrestrial reservoir of organic carbon and is central for climate change mitigation and carbon-climate feedbacks. Chemical and physical associations of soil carbon with minerals play a critical role in carbon storage, but the amount and global capacity for storage in this form remain unquantified. Here, we produce spatially-resolved global estimates of mineral-associated organic carbon stocks and carbon-storage capacity by analyzing 1144 globally-distributed soil profiles. We show that current stocks total 899 Pg C to a depth of 1 m in non-permafrost mineral soils. Although this constitutes 66% and 70% of soil carbon in surface and deeper layers, respectively, it is only 42% and 21% of the mineralogical capacity. Regions under agricultural management and deeper soil layers show the largest undersaturation of mineral-associated carbon. Critically, the degree of undersaturation indicates sequestration efficiency over years to decades. We show that, across 103 carbon-accrual measurements spanning management interventions globally, soils furthest from their mineralogical capacity are more effective at accruing carbon; sequestration rates average 3-times higher in soils at one tenth of their capacity compared to soils at one half of their capacity. Our findings provide insights into the world’s soils, their capacity to store carbon, and priority regions and actions for soil carbon management.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C points to the need for carbon neutrality by mid-century. Achieving this in the United States in only 30 years will be challenging, and practical pathways detailing the technologies, infrastructure, costs, and tradeoffs involved are needed. Modeling the entire U.S. energy and industrial system with new analysis tools that capture synergies not represented in sector-specific or integrated assessment models, we created multiple pathways to net zero and net negative CO 2 emissions by 2050. They met all forecast U.S. energy needs at a net cost of 0.2-1.2% of GDP in 2050, using only commercial or near-commercial technologies, and requiring no early retirement of existing infrastructure. Pathways with constraints on consumer behavior, land use, biomass use, and technology choices (e.g., no nuclear) met the target but at higher cost. All pathways employed four basic strategies: energy efficiency, decarbonized electricity, electrification, and carbon capture. Least-cost pathways were based on >80% wind and solar electricity plus thermal generation for reliability. A 100% renewable primary energy system was feasible but had higher cost and land use. We found multiple feasible options for supplying low-carbon fuels for non-electrifiable end uses in industry, freight, and aviation, which were not required in bulk until after 2035. In the next decade, the actions required in all pathways were similar: expand renewable capacity 3.5 fold, retire coal, maintain existing gas generating capacity, and increase electric vehicle and heat pump sales to >50% of market share. This study provides a playbook for carbon neutrality policy with concrete near-term priorities. Plain Language Summary We created multiple blueprints for the United States to reach zero or negative CO 2 emissions from the energy system by 2050 to avoid the most damaging impacts of climate change. By methodically increasing energy efficiency, switching to electric technologies, utilizing clean electricity (especially wind and solar power), and deploying a small amount of carbon capture technology, the United States can reach zero emissions without requiring changes to behavior. Cost is about $1 per person per day, not counting climate benefits; this is significantly less than estimates from a few years ago because of recent technology progress. Models with more detail than used in the past revealed unexpected synergies, counterintuitive results, and tradeoffs. The lowest-cost electricity systems get >80% of energy from wind and solar power but need other resources to provide reliable service. Eliminating fossil fuel use altogether is possible but higher cost. Restricting biomass use and land for renewables is possible but could require nuclear power to compensate. All blueprints for the United States agree on the key tasks for the 2020s: increasing the capacity of wind and solar power by 3.5 times, retiring coal plants, and increasing electric vehicle and electric heat pum...

Abstract. Methane (CH4) emissions from natural landscapes constitute roughly half of global CH4 contributions to the atmosphere, yet large uncertainties remain in the absolute magnitude and the seasonality of emission quantities and drivers. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CH4 flux are ideal for constraining ecosystem-scale CH4 emissions, including their seasonality, due to quasi-continuous and high temporal resolution of flux measurements, coincident measurements of carbon, water, and energy fluxes, lack of ecosystem disturbance, and increased availability of datasets over the last decade. Here, we 1) describe the newly published dataset, FLUXNET-CH4 Version 1.0, the first global dataset of CH4 EC measurements (available at https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4- community-product/). FLUXNET-CH4 includes half-hourly and daily gap-filled and non gap-filled aggregated CH4 fluxes and meteorological data from 79 sites globally: 42 freshwater wetlands, 6 brackish and saline wetlands, 7 formerly drained ecosystems, 7 rice paddy sites, 2 lakes, and 15 uplands. Then, we 2) evaluate FLUXNET-CH4 representativeness for freshwater wetland coverage globally, because the majority of sites in FLUXNET-CH4 Version 1.0 are freshwater wetlands and because freshwater wetlands are a substantial source of total atmospheric CH4 emissions; and 3) provide the first global estimates of the seasonal variability and seasonality predictors of freshwater wetland CH4 fluxes. Our representativeness analysis suggests that the freshwater wetland sites in the dataset cover global wetland bioclimatic attributes (encompassing energy, moisture, and vegetation-related parameters) in arctic, boreal, and temperate regions, but only sparsely cover humid tropical regions. Seasonality metrics of wetland CH4 emissions vary considerably across latitudinal bands. In freshwater wetlands (except those between 20° S to 20° N) the spring onset of elevated CH4 emissions starts three days earlier, and the CH4 emission season lasts 4 days longer, for each degree C increase in mean annual air temperature. On average, the onset of increasing CH4 emissions lags soil warming by one month, with very few sites experiencing increased CH4 emissions prior to the onset of soil warming. In contrast, roughly half of these sites experience the spring onset of rising CH4 emissions prior to the spring increase in gross primary productivity (GPP). The timing of peak summer CH4 emissions does not correlate with the timing for either peak summer temperature or peak GPP. Our results provide seasonality parameters for CH4 modeling, and highlight seasonality metrics that cannot be predicted by temperature or GPP (i.e., seasonality of CH4 peak). The FLUXNET-CH4 dataset provides an open-access resource for CH4 flux synthesis, has a range of applications, and is unique in that it includes coupled measurements of important CH4 drivers such as GPP and temperature. Although FLUXNET-CH4 could certainly be improved by adding more sites in tropical ecosystems and by increasing the number of site-years at existing sites, it is a powerful new resource for diagnosing and understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems and climate drivers in the global CH4 cycle. All seasonality parameters are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4408468. Additionally, raw FLUXNET-CH4 data used to extract seasonality parameters can be downloaded from https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/, and a complete list of the 79 individual site data DOIs is provided in Table 2 in the Data Availability section of this document.

Abstract. Radiocarbon is a critical constraint on our estimates of the timescales of soil carbon cycling that can aid in identifying mechanisms of carbon stabilization and destabilization, and improve forecast of soil carbon response to management or environmental change. Despite the wealth of soil radiocarbon data that has been reported over the past 75 years, the ability to apply these data to global scale questions is limited by our capacity to synthesis and compare measurements generated using a variety of methods. Here we describe the International Soil Radiocarbon Database (ISRaD, soilradiocarbon.org), an open-source archive of soils data that include data from bulk soils, or whole-soils; distinct soil carbon pools isolated in the laboratory by a variety of soil fractionation methods; samples of soil gas or water collected interstitially from within an intact soil profile; CO2 gas isolated from laboratory soil incubations; and fluxes collected in situ from a soil surface. The core of ISRaD is a relational database structured around individual datasets (entries) and organized hierarchically to report soil radiocarbon data, measured at different physical and temporal scales, as well as other soil or environmental properties that may also be measured at one or more levels of the hierarchy that may assist with interpretation and context. Anyone may contribute their own data to the database by entering it into the ISRaD template and subjecting it to quality assurance protocols. ISRaD can be accessed through: (1) a web-based interface, (2) an R package (ISRaD), or (3) direct access to code and data through the GitHub repository, which hosts both code and data. The design of ISRaD allows for participants to become directly involved in the management, design, and application of ISRaD data. The synthesized dataset is available in two forms: the original data as reported by the authors of the datasets; and an enhanced dataset that includes ancillary geospatial data calculated within the ISRaD framework. ISRaD also provides data management tools in the ISRaD-R package that provide a starting point for data analysis. This community-based dataset and platform for soil radiocarbon and a wide array of additional soils data information in soils where data are easy to contribute and the community is invited to add tools and ideas for improvement. As a whole, ISRaD provides resources that can aid our evaluation of soil dynamics and improve our understanding of controls on soil carbon dynamics across a range of spatial and temporal scales. The ISRaD v1.0 dataset (Lawrence et al., 2019) is archived and freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2613911.

Abstract. Developing a more mechanistic understanding of soil respiration is hampered by the difficulty in determining the contribution of different organic substrates to respiration and in disentangling autotrophic versus heterotrophic and aerobic versus anaerobic processes. Here, we present a relatively novel tool for better understanding soil respiration: the apparent respiration quotient (ARQ). ARQ is the amount of CO2 produced in the soil divided by the amount of O2 consumed and it changes according to which organic substrates are being consumed and whether oxygen is being used as an electron acceptor. We investigated how the ARQ of soil gas varied seasonally, by soil depth, and by experimental warming in situ in a coniferous forest whole-soil-profile warming experiment over two years. We then compared the patterns in ARQ to those of soil δ13CO2. Our measurements showed strong seasonal variations in ARQ from ≈ 0.9 during the late spring and summer to ≈ 0.7 during the winter. This pattern likely reflected a shift from respiration being fueled by oxidized substrates like sugars and organic acids derived from root and root respiration during the growing season to more reduced substrates such as lipids and proteins derived from microbial necromass during the winter. This interpretation was supported by δ13CO2 values, which were relatively depleted, like lipids, in the winter and more enriched, like sugars, in the summer. Furthermore, wintertime ARQ was higher in warmed (+4 °C) than in control plots, probably due to an increase in the use of more oxidized carbon substrates with warming. Our results demonstrate that soil ARQ shows strong seasonal patterns in line the phenology of carbon inputs and patterns in soil δ13CO2, verifying ARQ as a tool for disentangling the biological sources contributing to soil respiration.

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Abstract. Global warming may lead to carbon transfers from soils to the atmosphere, yet this positive feedback to the climate system remains highly uncertain, especially in subsoils (Ilyina and Friedlingstein, 2016; Shi et al., 2018). Using natural geothermal soil warming gradients of up to +6.4 ∘C in subarctic grasslands (Sigurdsson et al., 2016), we show that soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks decline strongly and linearly with warming (−2.8 t ha−1 ∘C−1). Comparison of SOC stock changes following medium-term (5 and 10 years) and long-term (>50 years) warming revealed that all SOC stock reduction occurred within the first 5 years of warming, after which continued warming no longer reduced SOC stocks. This rapid equilibration of SOC observed in Andosol suggests a critical role for ecosystem adaptations to warming and could imply short-lived soil carbon–climate feedbacks. Our data further revealed that the soil C loss occurred in all aggregate size fractions and that SOC stock reduction was only visible in topsoil (0–10 cm). SOC stocks in subsoil (10–30 cm), where plant roots were absent, showed apparent conservation after >50 years of warming. The observed depth-dependent warming responses indicate that explicit vertical resolution is a prerequisite for global models to accurately project future SOC stocks for this soil type and should be investigated for soils with other mineralogies.

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